Bayesian Inference
Efficient Bayesian Inference for Dynamically Changing Graphs
Sumer, Ozgur, Acar, Umut, Ihler, Alexander T., Mettu, Ramgopal R.
Motivated by stochastic systems in which observed evidence and conditional dependencies between states of the network change over time, and certain quantities of interest (marginal distributions, likelihood estimates etc.) must be updated, we study the problem of adaptive inference in tree-structured Bayesian networks. We describe an algorithm for adaptive inference that handles a broad range of changes to the network and is able to maintain marginal distributions, MAP estimates, and data likelihoods in all expected logarithmic time. We give an implementation of our algorithm and provide experiments that show that the algorithm can yield up to two orders of magnitude speedups on answering queries and responding to dynamic changes over the sum-product algorithm.
Bayesian Inference for Spiking Neuron Models with a Sparsity Prior
Gerwinn, Sebastian, Bethge, Matthias, Macke, Jakob H., Seeger, Matthias
Generalized linear models are the most commonly used tools to describe the stimulus selectivity of sensory neurons. Here we present a Bayesian treatment of such models. Using the expectation propagation algorithm, we are able to approximate the full posterior distribution over all weights. In addition, we use a Laplacian prior to favor sparse solutions. Therefore, stimulus features that do not critically influence neural activity will be assigned zero weights and thus be effectively excluded by the model.
Convex Clustering with Exemplar-Based Models
Lashkari, Danial, Golland, Polina
Clustering is often formulated as the maximum likelihood estimation of a mixture model that explains the data. The EM algorithm widely used to solve the resulting optimization problem is inherently a gradient-descent method and is sensitive to initialization. The resulting solution is a local optimum in the neighborhood of the initial guess. This sensitivity to initialization presents a significant challenge in clustering large data sets into many clusters. In this paper, we present a different approachto approximate mixture fitting for clustering. We introduce an exemplar-based likelihood function that approximates the exact likelihood. This formulation leads to a convex minimization problem and an efficient algorithm with guaranteed convergence to the globally optimal solution. The resulting clustering canbe thought of as a probabilistic mapping of the data points to the set of exemplars that minimizes the average distance and the information-theoretic cost of mapping.
Learning Horizontal Connections in a Sparse Coding Model of Natural Images
Garrigues, Pierre, Olshausen, Bruno A.
It has been shown that adapting a dictionary of basis functions to the statistics of natural images so as to maximize sparsity in the coefficients results in a set of dictionary elements whose spatial properties resemble those of V1 (primary visual cortex) receptive fields. However, the resulting sparse coefficients still exhibit pronounced statistical dependencies, thus violating the independence assumption of the sparse coding model. Here, we propose a model that attempts to capture the dependencies among the basis function coefficients by including a pairwise coupling term in the prior over the coefficient activity states. When adapted to the statistics of natural images, the coupling terms learn a combination of facilitatory and inhibitory interactions among neighboring basis functions. These learned interactions may offer an explanation for the function of horizontal connections in V1, and we discuss the implications of our findings for physiological experiments.
Catching Up Faster in Bayesian Model Selection and Model Averaging
Erven, Tim V., Rooij, Steven D., Grรผnwald, Peter
Bayesian model averaging, model selection and their approximations such as BIC are generally statistically consistent, but sometimes achieve slower rates of convergence thanother methods such as AIC and leave-one-out cross-validation. On the other hand, these other methods can be inconsistent. We identify the catchup phenomenon as a novel explanation for the slow convergence of Bayesian methods. Basedon this analysis we define the switch-distribution, a modification of the Bayesian model averaging distribution. We prove that in many situations model selection and prediction based on the switch-distribution is both consistent and achieves optimal convergence rates, thereby resolving the AIC-BIC dilemma. The method is practical; we give an efficient algorithm.
Exponential Family Predictive Representations of State
Wingate, David, Baveja, Satinder S.
In order to represent state in controlled, partially observable, stochastic dynamical systems, some sort of sufficient statistic for history is necessary. Predictive representations ofstate (PSRs) capture state as statistics of the future. We introduce a new model of such systems called the "Exponential family PSR," which defines as state the time-varying parameters of an exponential family distribution which models n sequential observations in the future. This choice of state representation explicitly connects PSRs to state-of-the-art probabilistic modeling, which allows us to take advantage of current efforts in high-dimensional density estimation, and in particular, graphical models and maximum entropy models. We present a parameter learningalgorithm based on maximum likelihood, and we show how a variety of current approximate inference methods apply. We evaluate the quality ofour model with reinforcement learning by directly evaluating the control performance of the model.