When individuals independently recollect events or retrieve facts from memory, how can we aggregate these retrieved memories to reconstruct the actual set of events or facts? In this research, we report the performance of individuals in a series of general knowledge tasks, where the goal is to reconstruct from memory the order of historic events, or the order of items along some physical dimension. We introduce two Bayesian models for aggregating order information based on a Thurstonian approach and Mallows model. Both models assume that each individuals reconstruction is based on either a random permutation of the unobserved ground truth, or by a pure guessing strategy. We apply MCMC to make inferences about the underlying truth and the strategies employed by individuals. The models demonstrate a wisdom of crowds" effect, where the aggregated orderings are closer to the true ordering than the orderings of the best individual."

Modern machine learning-based approaches to computer vision require very large databases of labeled images. Some contemporary vision systems already require on the order of millions of images for training (e.g., Omron face detector). While the collection of these large databases is becoming a bottleneck, new Internet-based services that allow labelers from around the world to be easily hired and managed provide a promising solution. However, using these services to label large databases brings with it new theoretical and practical challenges: (1) The labelers may have wide ranging levels of expertise which are unknown a priori, and in some cases may be adversarial; (2) images may vary in their level of difficulty; and (3) multiple labels for the same image must be combined to provide an estimate of the actual label of the image. Probabilistic approaches provide a principled way to approach these problems. In this paper we present a probabilistic model and use it to simultaneously infer the label of each image, the expertise of each labeler, and the difficulty of each image. On both simulated and real data, we demonstrate that the model outperforms the commonly used ``Majority Vote heuristic for inferring image labels, and is robust to both adversarial and noisy labelers.

We develop a probabilistic model of human memory performance in free recall experiments. In these experiments, a subject first studies a list of words and then tries to recall them. To model these data, we draw on both previous psychological research and statistical topic models of text documents. We assume that memories are formed by assimilating the semantic meaning of studied words (represented as a distribution over topics) into a slowly changing latent context (represented in the same space). During recall, this context is reinstated and used as a cue for retrieving studied words. By conceptualizing memory retrieval as a dynamic latent variable model, we are able to use Bayesian inference to represent uncertainty and reason about the cognitive processes underlying memory. We present a particle filter algorithm for performing approximate posterior inference, and evaluate our model on the prediction of recalled words in experimental data. By specifying the model hierarchically, we are also able to capture inter-subject variability.

We consider the problem of obtaining the approximate maximum a posteriori estimate of a discrete random field characterized by pairwise potentials that form a truncated convex model. For this problem, we propose an improved st-mincut based move making algorithm. Unlike previous move making approaches, which either provide a loose bound or no bound on the quality of the solution (in terms of the corresponding Gibbs energy), our algorithm achieves the same guarantees as the standard linear programming (LP) relaxation. Compared to previous approaches based on the LP relaxation, e.g. interior-point algorithms or tree-reweighted message passing (TRW), our method is faster as it uses only the efficient st-mincut algorithm in its design. Furthermore, it directly provides us with a primal solution (unlike TRW and other related methods which attempt to solve the dual of the LP). We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach on both synthetic and standard real data problems. Our analysis also opens up an interesting question regarding the relationship between move making algorithms (such as $\alpha$-expansion and the algorithms presented in this paper) and the randomized rounding schemes used with convex relaxations. We believe that further explorations in this direction would help design efficient algorithms for more complex relaxations.

``How is information decoded in the brain?'' is one of the most difficult and important questions in neuroscience. Whether neural correlation is important or not in decoding neural activities is of special interest. We have developed a general framework for investigating how far the decoding process in the brain can be simplified. First, we hierarchically construct simplified probabilistic models of neural responses that ignore more than $K$th-order correlations by using a maximum entropy principle. Then, we compute how much information is lost when information is decoded using the simplified models, i.e., ``mismatched decoders''. We introduce an information theoretically correct quantity for evaluating the information obtained by mismatched decoders. We applied our proposed framework to spike data for vertebrate retina. We used 100-ms natural movies as stimuli and computed the information contained in neural activities about these movies. We found that the information loss is negligibly small in population activities of ganglion cells even if all orders of correlation are ignored in decoding. We also found that if we assume stationarity for long durations in the information analysis of dynamically changing stimuli like natural movies, pseudo correlations seem to carry a large portion of the information.

The synchronous brain activity measured via MEG (or EEG) can be interpreted as arising from a collection (possibly large) of current dipoles or sources located throughout the cortex. Estimating the number, location, and orientation of these sources remains a challenging task, one that is significantly compounded by the effects of source correlations and the presence of interference from spontaneous brain activity, sensor noise, and other artifacts. This paper derives an empirical Bayesian method for addressing each of these issues in a principled fashion. The resulting algorithm guarantees descent of a cost function uniquely designed to handle unknown orientations and arbitrary correlations. Robust interference suppression is also easily incorporated. In a restricted setting, the proposed method is shown to have theoretically zero bias estimating both the location and orientation of multi-component dipoles even in the presence of correlations, unlike a variety of existing Bayesian localization methods or common signal processing techniques such as beamforming and sLORETA. Empirical results on both simulated and real data sets verify the efficacy of this approach.

Many human interactions involve pieces of information being passed from one person to another, raising the question of how this process of information transmission is affected by the capacities of the agents involved. In the 1930s, Sir Frederic Bartlett explored the influence of memory biases in “serial reproduction” of information, in which one person’s reconstruction of a stimulus from memory becomes the stimulus seen by the next person. These experiments were done using relatively uncontrolled stimuli such as pictures and stories, but suggested that serial reproduction would transform information in a way that reflected the biases inherent in memory. We formally analyze serial reproduction using a Bayesian model of reconstruction from memory, giving a general result characterizing the effect of memory biases on information transmission. We then test the predictions of this account in two experiments using simple one-dimensional stimuli. Our results provide theoretical and empirical justification for the idea that serial reproduction reflects memory biases.

Over recent years Dirichlet processes and the associated Chinese restaurant process (CRP) have found many applications in clustering while the Indian buffet process (IBP) is increasingly used to describe latent feature models. In the clustering case, we associate to each data point a latent allocation variable. These latent variables can share the same value and this induces a partition of the data set. The CRP is a prior distribution on such partitions. In latent feature models, we associate to each data point a potentially infinite number of binary latent variables indicating the possession of some features and the IBP is a prior distribution on the associated infinite binary matrix. These prior distributions are attractive because they ensure exchangeability (over samples). We propose here extensions of these models to decomposable graphs. These models have appealing properties and can be easily learned using Monte Carlo techniques.

We present a generative model for performing sparse probabilistic projections, which includes sparse principal component analysis and sparse canonical correlation analysis as special cases. Sparsity is enforced by means of automatic relevance determination or by imposing appropriate prior distributions, such as generalised hyperbolic distributions. We derive a variational Expectation-Maximisation algorithm for the estimation of the hyperparameters and show that our novel probabilistic approach compares favourably to existing techniques. We illustrate how the proposed method can be applied in the context of cryptoanalysis as a pre-processing tool for the construction of template attacks.

The nested Chinese restaurant process (nCRP) is a powerful nonparametric Bayesian model for learning tree-based hierarchies from data. Since its posterior distribution is intractable, current inference methods have all relied on MCMC sampling. In this paper, we develop an alternative inference technique based on variational methods. To employ variational methods, we derive a tree-based stick-breaking construction of the nCRP mixture model, and a novel variational algorithm that efficiently explores a posterior over a large set of combinatorial structures. We demonstrate the use of this approach for text and hand written digits modeling, where we show we can adapt the nCRP to continuous data as well.