The syntactic topic model (STM) is a Bayesian nonparametric model of language that discovers latent distributions of words (topics) that are both semantically and syntactically coherent. The STM models dependency parsed corpora where sentences are grouped into documents. It assumes that each word is drawn from a latent topic chosen by combining document-level features and the local syntactic context. Each document has a distribution over latent topics, as in topic models, which provides the semantic consistency. Each element in the dependency parse tree also has a distribution over the topics of its children, as in latent-state syntax models, which provides the syntactic consistency. These distributions are convolved so that the topic of each word is likely under both its document and syntactic context. We derive a fast posterior inference algorithm based on variational methods. We report qualitative and quantitative studies on both synthetic data and hand-parsed documents. We show that the STM is a more predictive model of language than current models based only on syntax or only on topics.

The methodology of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is applied for assessment of newborn brain maturity from sleep EEG. In theory this methodology provides the most accurate assessments of uncertainty in decisions. However, the existing BMA techniques have been shown providing biased assessments in the absence of some prior information enabling to explore model parameter space in details within a reasonable time. The lack in details leads to disproportional sampling from the posterior distribution. In case of the EEG assessment of brain maturity, BMA results can be biased because of the absence of information about EEG feature importance. In this paper we explore how the posterior information about EEG features can be used in order to reduce a negative impact of disproportional sampling on BMA performance. We use EEG data recorded from sleeping newborns to test the efficiency of the proposed BMA technique.

Recently, new approaches to adaptive control have sought to reformulate the problem as a minimization of a relative entropy criterion to obtain tractable solutions. In particular, it has been shown that minimizing the expected deviation from the causal input-output dependencies of the true plant leads to a new promising stochastic control rule called the Bayesian control rule. This work proves the convergence of the Bayesian control rule under two sufficient assumptions: boundedness, which is an ergodicity condition; and consistency, which is an instantiation of the sure-thing principle.

Currently, criminals profile (CP) is obtained from investigators or forensic psychologists interpretation, linking crime scene characteristics and an offenders behavior to his or her characteristics and psychological profile. This paper seeks an efficient and systematic discovery of nonobvious and valuable patterns between variables from a large database of solved cases via a probabilistic network (PN) modeling approach. The PN structure can be used to extract behavioral patterns and to gain insight into what factors influence these behaviors. Thus, when a new case is being investigated and the profile variables are unknown because the offender has yet to be identified, the observed crime scene variables are used to infer the unknown variables based on their connections in the structure and the corresponding numerical (probabilistic) weights. The objective is to produce a more systematic and empirical approach to profiling, and to use the resulting PN model as a decision tool.

We extend the Chow-Liu algorithm for general random variables while the previous versions only considered finite cases. In particular, this paper applies the generalization to Suzuki's learning algorithm that generates from data forests rather than trees based on the minimum description length by balancing the fitness of the data to the forest and the simplicity of the forest. As a result, we successfully obtain an algorithm when both of the Gaussian and finite random variables are present.

Confidence intervals based on penalized maximum likelihood estimators such as the LASSO, adaptive LASSO, and hard-thresholding are analyzed. In the known-variance case, the finite-sample coverage properties of such intervals are determined and it is shown that symmetric intervals are the shortest. The length of the shortest intervals based on the hard-thresholding estimator is larger than the length of the shortest interval based on the adaptive LASSO, which is larger than the length of the shortest interval based on the LASSO, which in turn is larger than the standard interval based on the maximum likelihood estimator. In the case where the penalized estimators are tuned to possess the `sparsity property', the intervals based on these estimators are larger than the standard interval by an order of magnitude. Furthermore, a simple asymptotic confidence interval construction in the `sparse' case, that also applies to the smoothly clipped absolute deviation estimator, is discussed. The results for the known-variance case are shown to carry over to the unknown-variance case in an appropriate asymptotic sense.

While existing mathematical descriptions can accurately account for phenomena at microscopic scales (e.g. molecular dynamics), these are often high-dimensional, stochastic and their applicability over macroscopic time scales of physical interest is computationally infeasible or impractical. In complex systems, with limited physical insight on the coherent behavior of their constituents, the only available information is data obtained from simulations of the trajectories of huge numbers of degrees of freedom over microscopic time scales. This paper discusses a Bayesian approach to deriving probabilistic coarse-grained models that simultaneously address the problems of identifying appropriate reduced coordinates and the effective dynamics in this lower-dimensional representation. At the core of the models proposed lie simple, low-dimensional dynamical systems which serve as the building blocks of the global model. These approximate the latent, generating sources and parameterize the reduced-order dynamics. We discuss parallelizable, online inference and learning algorithms that employ Sequential Monte Carlo samplers and scale linearly with the dimensionality of the observed dynamics. We propose a Bayesian adaptive time-integration scheme that utilizes probabilistic predictive estimates and enables rigorous concurrent s imulation over macroscopic time scales. The data-driven perspective advocated assimilates computational and experimental data and thus can materialize data-model fusion. It can deal with applications that lack a mathematical description and where only observational data is available. Furthermore, it makes non-intrusive use of existing computational models.

The aim of this work is to address the question of whether we can in principle design rational decision-making agents or artificial intelligences embedded in computable physics such that their decisions are optimal in reasonable mathematical senses. Recent developments in rare event probability estimation, recursive bayesian inference, neural networks, and probabilistic planning are sufficient to explicitly approximate reinforcement learners of the AIXI style with non-trivial model classes (here, the class of resource-bounded Turing machines). Consideration of the effects of resource limitations in a concrete implementation leads to insights about possible architectures for learning systems using optimal decision makers as components.

A client-server architecture to simultaneously solve multiple learning tasks from distributed datasets is described. In such architecture, each client is associated with an individual learning task and the associated dataset of examples. The goal of the architecture is to perform information fusion from multiple datasets while preserving privacy of individual data. The role of the server is to collect data in real-time from the clients and codify the information in a common database. The information coded in this database can be used by all the clients to solve their individual learning task, so that each client can exploit the informative content of all the datasets without actually having access to private data of others. The proposed algorithmic framework, based on regularization theory and kernel methods, uses a suitable class of mixed effect kernels. The new method is illustrated through a simulated music recommendation system.

This paper addresses the problem of identifying a lower dimensional space where observed data can be sparsely represented. This under-complete dictionary learning task can be formulated as a blind separation problem of sparse sources linearly mixed with an unknown orthogonal mixing matrix. This issue is formulated in a Bayesian framework. First, the unknown sparse sources are modeled as Bernoulli-Gaussian processes. To promote sparsity, a weighted mixture of an atom at zero and a Gaussian distribution is proposed as prior distribution for the unobserved sources. A non-informative prior distribution defined on an appropriate Stiefel manifold is elected for the mixing matrix. The Bayesian inference on the unknown parameters is conducted using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. A partially collapsed Gibbs sampler is designed to generate samples asymptotically distributed according to the joint posterior distribution of the unknown model parameters and hyperparameters. These samples are then used to approximate the joint maximum a posteriori estimator of the sources and mixing matrix. Simulations conducted on synthetic data are reported to illustrate the performance of the method for recovering sparse representations. An application to sparse coding on under-complete dictionary is finally investigated.