The successful completion of a software development process depends on the analytical capability and foresightedness of the project manager. For the project manager, the main intriguing task is to manage the risk factors as they adversely influence the completion deadline. One such key risk factor is staff training. The risk of this factor can be avoided by pre-judging the amount of training required by the staff. So, a procedure is required to help the project manager make this decision. This paper presents a system that uses influence diagrams to implement the risk model to aid decision making. The system also considers the cost of conducting the training, based on various risk factors such as, (i) Lack of experience with project software; (ii) Newly appointed staff; (iii) Staff not well versed with the required quality standards; and (iv) Lack of experience with project environment. The system provides estimated requirement details for staff training at the beginning of a software development project.

This paper proposes a method to construct an adaptive agent that is universal with respect to a given class of experts, where each expert is designed specifically for a particular environment. This adaptive control problem is formalized as the problem of minimizing the relative entropy of the adaptive agent from the expert that is most suitable for the unknown environment. If the agent is a passive observer, then the optimal solution is the well-known Bayesian predictor. However, if the agent is active, then its past actions need to be treated as causal interventions on the I/O stream rather than normal probability conditions. Here it is shown that the solution to this new variational problem is given by a stochastic controller called the Bayesian control rule, which implements adaptive behavior as a mixture of experts. Furthermore, it is shown that under mild assumptions, the Bayesian control rule converges to the control law of the most suitable expert.

Many problems of low-level computer vision and image processing, such as denoising, deconvolution, tomographic reconstruction or super-resolution, can be addressed by maximizing the posterior distribution of a sparse linear model (SLM). We show how higher-order Bayesian decision-making problems, such as optimizing image acquisition in magnetic resonance scanners, can be addressed by querying the SLM posterior covariance, unrelated to the density's mode. We propose a scalable algorithmic framework, with which SLM posteriors over full, high-resolution images can be approximated for the first time, solving a variational optimization problem which is convex iff posterior mode finding is convex. These methods successfully drive the optimization of sampling trajectories for real-world magnetic resonance imaging through Bayesian experimental design, which has not been attempted before. Our methodology provides new insight into similarities and differences between sparse reconstruction and approximate Bayesian inference, and has important implications for compressive sensing of real-world images.

This paper proposes a nonparametric Bayesian method for exploratory data analysis and feature construction in continuous time series. Our method focuses on understanding shared features in a set of time series that exhibit significant individual variability. Our method builds on the framework of latent Diricihlet allocation (LDA) and its extension to hierarchical Dirichlet processes, which allows us to characterize each series as switching between latent ``topics'', where each topic is characterized as a distribution over ``words'' that specify the series dynamics. However, unlike standard applications of LDA, we discover the words as we learn the model. We apply this model to the task of tracking the physiological signals of premature infants; our model obtains clinically significant insights as well as useful features for supervised learning tasks.

Sparse data models, where data is assumed to be well represented as a linear combination of a few elements from a dictionary, have gained considerable attention in recent years, and their use has led to state-of-the-art results in many signal and image processing tasks. It is now well understood that the choice of the sparsity regularization term is critical in the success of such models. Based on a codelength minimization interpretation of sparse coding, and using tools from universal coding theory, we propose a framework for designing sparsity regularization terms which have theoretical and practical advantages when compared to the more standard l0 or l1 ones. The presentation of the framework and theoretical foundations is complemented with examples that show its practical advantages in image denoising, zooming and classification.

This paper presents new results for the (partial) maximum a posteriori (MAP) problem in Bayesian networks, which is the problem of querying the most probable state configuration of some of the network variables given evidence. First, it is demonstrated that the problem remains hard even in networks with very simple topology, such as binary polytrees and simple trees (including the Naive Bayes structure). Such proofs extend previous complexity results for the problem. Inapproximability results are also derived in the case of trees if the number of states per variable is not bounded. Although the problem is shown to be hard and inapproximable even in very simple scenarios, a new exact algorithm is described that is empirically fast in networks of bounded treewidth and bounded number of states per variable. The same algorithm is used as basis of a Fully Polynomial Time Approximation Scheme for MAP under such assumptions. Approximation schemes were generally thought to be impossible for this problem, but we show otherwise for classes of networks that are important in practice. The algorithms are extensively tested using some well-known networks as well as random generated cases to show their effectiveness.

Wikis are being increasingly used as a tool for conducting colla-borative writing assignments in today’s classrooms. However, Wikis in general (1) do not provide group formation methods to more specifically facilitate collaborative learning of the students and (2) suffer from typical problems of collaborative learning like detection of free-riding (earning credit without contribution). To improve the state of the art of the use of Wikis as a collaborative writing tool, we have designed and implemented ClassroomWiki - a Web-based collaborative Wiki that utilizes a set of learner pedagogy theories to provide multiagent-based tracking, modeling, and group formation functionalities. For the students, ClassroomWiki provides a Web interface for writing and revising their group’s Wiki and a topic-based forum for discussing their ideas during collaboration. When the students collaborate, ClassroomWiki’s agents track all student activities to learn a model of the students and use a Bayesian Network to learn a probabilistic mapping that describes the ability of a group of students with a specific set of models to work together. For the teacher, Clas-sroomWiki provides a framework that uses the learned student models and the mapping to form student groups to improve the collaborative learning of students. ClassroomWiki was deployed in three university-level courses and the results suggest that ClassroomWiki can (1) form better student groups that improve stu-dent learning and collaboration and (2) alleviate free-riding and allow the instructor to provide scaffolding by its multiagent-based tracking and modeling.

Recently, Brafman and Engel (2009) proposed new concepts of marginal and conditional utility that obey additive analogues of the chain rule and Bayes rule, which they employed to obtain a directed graphical model of utility functions that resembles Bayes nets. In this paper we carry this analogy a step farther by showing that the notion of utility independence, built on conditional utility, satisfies identical properties to those of probabilistic independence. This allows us to formalize the construction of graphical models for utility functions, directed and undirected, and place them on the firm foundations of Pearl and Paz's axioms of semi-graphoids. With this strong equivalence in place, we show how algorithms used for probabilistic reasoning such as Belief Propagation (Pearl 1988) can be replicated to reasoning about utilities with the same formal guarantees, and open the way to the adaptation of additional algorithms.

We explore the relationship between two approaches to rationalizing voting rules: the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) framework originally suggested by Condorcet and recently studied by Conitzer, Rognlie, and Xia, and the distance rationalizability (DR) framework of Elkind, Faliszewski, and Slinko. The former views voting as an attempt to reconstruct the correct ordering of the candidates given noisy estimates (i.e., votes), while the latter explains voting as search for the nearest consensus outcome. We provide conditions under which an MLE interpretation of a voting rule coincides with its DR interpretation, and classify a number of classic voting rules, such as Kemeny, Plurality, Borda and Single Transferable Vote (STV), according to how well they fit each of these frameworks. The classification we obtain is more precise than the ones that result from using MLE or DR alone: indeed, we show that the MLE approach can be used to guide our search for a more refined notion of distance rationalizability and vice versa.

We introduce a new discriminative piecewise linear model for classification. A two-step method is developed to construct the model. In the first step, we sample some boundary points that lie between positive and negative data, as well as corresponding directions from negative data to positive data. The sampling result gives a discriminative nonparametric decision surface, which preserves enough information to correctly classify all training data. To simplify this surface, in the second step we propose a nonparametric approach for linear surface segmentation using Dirichlet process mixtures. The final result is a piecewise linear model, in which the number of linear surface pieces is automatically determined by the Bayesian inference according to data. Experiments on both synthetic and real data verify the effectiveness of the proposed model.