Variational mean field approximations tend to struggle with contemporary overparametrized deep neural networks. Where a Bayesian treatment is usually associated with high-quality predictions and uncertainties, the practical reality has been the opposite, with unstable training, poor predictive power, and subpar calibration. Building upon recent work on reparametrizations of neural networks, we propose a simple variational family that considers two independent linear subspaces of the parameter space. These represent functional changes inside and outside the support of training data. This allows us to build a fully-correlated approximate posterior reflecting the overparametrization that tunes easy-to-interpret hyperparameters. We develop scalable numerical routines that maximize the associated evidence lower bound (ELBO) and sample from the approximate posterior. Empirically, we observe state-of-the-art performance across tasks, models, and datasets compared to a wide array of baseline methods. Our results show that approximate Bayesian inference applied to deep neural networks is far from a lost cause when constructing inference mechanisms that reflect the geometry of reparametrizations.

Targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) is a widely used debiasing algorithm for plug-in estimation. While its statistical guarantees, such as double robustness and asymptotic efficiency, are well-studied, the convergence properties of TMLE as an iterative optimization scheme have remained underexplored. To bridge this gap, we study TMLE's iterative updates through an optimization-theoretic lens, establishing global convergence under standard assumptions and regularity conditions. We begin by providing the first complete characterization of different stopping criteria and their relationship to convergence in TMLE. Next, we provide geometric insights.

In scientific domains---from biology to the social sciences---many questions boil down to \textit{What effect will we observe if we intervene on a particular variable?} If the causal relationships (e.g.~a causal graph) are known, its possible to estimate the intervention distributions. In the absence of this domain knowledge, the causal structure must be discovered from the available observational data. However, observational data are often compatible with multiple causal graphs, making methods that commit to a single structure prone to overconfidence. A principled way to manage this structural uncertainty is via Bayesian inference, which averages over a posterior distribution on possible causal structures and functional mechanisms.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has shown promise in enhancing the general Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning capabilities of multimodal large language models (MLLMs). However, when applied to improve general CoT reasoning, existing RL frameworks often struggle to generalize beyond the training distribution. To address this, we propose NoisyGRPO, a systematic multimodal RL framework that introduces controllable noise into visual inputs for enhanced exploration and explicitly models the advantage estimation process via a Bayesian framework. Specifically, NoisyGRPO improves RL training by: (1) \textbf{Noise-Injected Exploration Policy}: Perturbing visual inputs with Gaussian noise to encourage exploration across a wider range of visual scenarios; and (2) \textbf{Bayesian Advantage Estimation}: Formulating advantage estimation as a principled Bayesian inference problem, where the injected noise level serves as a prior and the observed trajectory reward as the likelihood. This Bayesian modeling fuses both sources of information to compute a robust posterior estimate of trajectory advantage, effectively guiding MLLMs to prefer visually grounded trajectories over noisy ones. Experiments on standard CoT quality, general capability, and hallucination benchmarks demonstrate that NoisyGRPO substantially improves generalization and robustness, especially in RL settings with small-scale MLLMs such as Qwen2.5-VL

Bayesian Network models are a powerful tool to collaboratively optimize production processes in various manufacturing industries. When interacting, collaborating parties must preserve their business secrets by maintaining the confidentiality of their model structures and parameters. While most realistic industry scenarios involve hybrid settings, handling both discrete and continuous data, current state-of-the-art methods for collaborative and confidential inference only support discrete data and have high communication costs. In a centralized setting, Junction Trees enable efficient inference even in hybrid scenarios without discretizing continuous variables, but no extension for collaborative and confidential scenarios exists. To address this research gap, we introduce Hybrid CCJT, the first framework for confidential multiparty inference in hybrid domains with semi-honest, non-colluding adversaries, comprising: (i) a method to construct a strongly-rooted Junction Tree across collaborating parties through a novel construct of interface cliques; and, (ii) a protocol for confidential inference built upon multiparty computation primitives comprising a one-time alignment phase and a belief propagation system for combining the inference results across the Junction Tree cliques. Extensive evaluation on nine datasets shows that Hybrid CCJT improves the predictive accuracy of continuous target variables by 32% on average compared to the state-of-the-art, while reducing communication costs by a median 10.4x under purely discrete scenarios.

We introduce a novel framework for differentially private (DP) statistical estimation via data truncation, addressing a key challenge in DP estimation when the data support is unbounded. Traditional approaches rely on problem-specific sensitivity analysis, limiting their applicability. By leveraging techniques from truncated statistics, we develop computationally efficient DP estimators for exponential family distributions, including Gaussian mean and covariance estimation, achieving near-optimal sample complexity. Previous works on exponential families only consider bounded or one-dimensional families. Our approach mitigates sensitivity through truncation while carefully correcting for the introduced bias using maximum likelihood estimation and DP stochastic gradient descent. Along the way, we establish improved uniform convergence guarantees for the log-likelihood function of exponential families, which may be of independent interest. Our results provide a general blueprint for DP algorithm design via truncated statistics.

Reinforcement learning with general utilities (RLGU) offers a unifying framework to capture several problems beyond standard expected returns, including imitation learning, pure exploration, and safe RL. Despite recent fundamental advances in the theoretical analysis of policy gradient (PG) methods for standard RL and recent efforts in RLGU, the understanding of these PG algorithms and their scope of application in RLGU still remain limited. In this work, we establish global optimality guarantees of PG methods for RLGU in which the objective is a general concave utility function of the state-action occupancy measure. In the tabular setting, we provide global optimality results using a new proof technique building on recent theoretical developments on the convergence of PG methods for standard RL using gradient domination. Our proof technique opens avenues for analyzing policy parameterizations beyond the direct policy parameterization for RLGU. In addition, we provide global optimality results for large state-action space settings beyond prior work which has mostly focused on the tabular setting. In this large scale setting, we adapt PG methods by approximating occupancy measures within a function approximation class using maximum likelihood estimation. Our sample complexity only scales with the dimension induced by our approximation class instead of the size of the state-action space.

Human behavior is characterized by continuous learning to reduce uncertainties about the world in pursuit of goals. When trying to understand such behavior from observations, it is essential to account for this adaptive nature and reason about the uncertainties that may have led to seemingly suboptimal decisions. Nevertheless, most inverse approaches to sequential decision-making focus on inferring cost functions underlying stationary behavior or are limited to low-dimensional tasks. In this paper, we address this gap by considering the problem of inferring an agent's knowledge or awareness about the environment based on a given trajectory. We assume that the agent aims to reach a goal in an environment they only partially know, and integrates new information into their plan as they act. We propose a Bayesian approach to infer their latent knowledge state, leveraging an approximate navigation model that optimistically incorporates partial information while accounting for uncertainty. By combining sample-based Bayesian inference with dynamic graph algorithms, we achieve an efficient method for computing posterior beliefs about the agent's knowledge. Empirical validation using simulated behavioral data and human data from an online experiment demonstrates that our model effectively captures human navigation under uncertainty and reveals interpretable insights into their environmental knowledge.

The widespread use of generative models has created a feedback loop in which each generation of models is trained on data partially produced by its predecessors. This process has raised concerns about model collapse: A critical degradation in performance caused by repeated training on synthetic data. However, different analyses in the literature have reached different conclusions as to the severity of model collapse. As such, it remains unclear how concerning this phenomenon is, and under which assumptions it can be avoided. To address this, we theoretically study model collapse for maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), in a natural setting where synthetic data is gradually added to the original training set. Under standard assumptions (similar to those long used for proving asymptotic consistency and normality of MLE), we establish non-asymptotic bounds showing that collapse can be avoided even as the fraction of real data vanishes. On the other hand, we prove that some assumptions (beyond MLE consistency) are indeed necessary: Without them, model collapse can occur arbitrarily quickly, even when the original data is still present in the training set. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first rigorous examples of iterative generative modeling with accumulating data that rapidly leads to model collapse.

Vine copulas provide a flexible framework for modeling complex multivariate dependence structures using only bivariate building blocks. Their practical success relies heavily on the simplifying assumption, which restricts conditional pair copulas to be independent of the specific conditioning values. While this assumption greatly facilitates estimation, it may lead to model misspecification in applications with pronounced varying conditional dependence. We propose a novel calibration strategy for simplified vine copula models based on observation-specific correction factors. These factors are derived using noise contrastive estimation (NCE), a supervised learning technique for density estimation that reframes the problem as a binary classification task with an easily sampled noise distribution. Treating the fitted simplified vine copula as the noise model, the NCE approach yields corrected log-likelihood estimates for individual observations, thereby locally adjusting the simplified vine toward the underlying data-generating dependence structure. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed calibration provides sensible and effective adjustments, improving model accuracy when the simplifying assumption is violated while remaining neutral when the simplified model is adequate. Two real-data applications further illustrate the practical benefits of the method. The results highlight NCE-based calibration as a promising tool to enhance simplified vine copula models without abandoning their computational tractability.