We present an exact method of greatly speeding up belief propagation (BP) for a wide variety of potential functions in pairwise MRFs and other graphical models. Specifically, our technique applies whenever the pairwise potentials have been {\em truncated} to a constant value for most pairs of states, as is commonly done in MRF models with robust potentials (such as stereo) that impose an upper bound on the penalty assigned to discontinuities; for each of the $M$ possible states in one node, only a smaller number $m$ of compatible states in a neighboring node are assigned milder penalties. The computational complexity of our method is $O(mM)$, compared with $O(M^2)$ for standard BP, and we emphasize that the method is {\em exact}, in contrast with related techniques such as pruning; moreover, the method is very simple and easy to implement. Unlike some previous work on speeding up BP, our method applies both to sum-product and max-product BP, which makes it useful in any applications where marginal probabilities are required, such as maximum likelihood estimation. We demonstrate the technique on a stereo MRF example, confirming that the technique speeds up BP without altering the solution.

This survey paper categorises, compares, and summarises from almost all published technical and review articles in automated fraud detection within the last 10 years. It defines the professional fraudster, formalises the main types and subtypes of known fraud, and presents the nature of data evidence collected within affected industries. Within the business context of mining the data to achieve higher cost savings, this research presents methods and techniques together with their problems. Compared to all related reviews on fraud detection, this survey covers much more technical articles and is the only one, to the best of our knowledge, which proposes alternative data and solutions from related domains.

The paper presents a scheme for computing lower and upper bounds on the posterior marginals in Bayesian networks with discrete variables. Its power lies in its ability to use any available scheme that bounds the probability of evidence or posterior marginals and enhance its performance in an anytime manner. The scheme uses the cutset conditioning principle to tighten existing bounding schemes and to facilitate anytime behavior, utilizing a fixed number of cutset tuples. The accuracy of the bounds improves as the number of used cutset tuples increases and so does the computation time. We demonstrate empirically the value of our scheme for bounding posterior marginals and probability of evidence using a variant of the bound propagation algorithm as a plug-in scheme.

We propose a novel reformulation of the stochastic optimal control problem as an approximate inference problem, demonstrating, that such a interpretation leads to new practical methods for the original problem. In particular we characterise a novel class of iterative solutions to the stochastic optimal control problem based on a natural relaxation of the exact dual formulation. These theoretical insights are applied to the Reinforcement Learning problem where they lead to new model free, off policy methods for discrete and continuous problems.

Complex network theory aims to model and analyze complex systems that consist of multiple and interdependent components. Among all studies on complex networks, topological structure analysis is of the most fundamental importance, as it represents a natural route to understand the dynamics, as well as to synthesize or optimize the functions, of networks. A broad spectrum of network structural patterns have been respectively reported in the past decade, such as communities, multipartites, hubs, authorities, outliers, bow ties, and others. Here, we show that most individual real-world networks demonstrate multiplex structures. That is, a multitude of known or even unknown (hidden) patterns can simultaneously situate in the same network, and moreover they may be overlapped and nested with each other to collaboratively form a heterogeneous, nested or hierarchical organization, in which different connective phenomena can be observed at different granular levels. In addition, we show that the multiplex structures hidden in exploratory networks can be well defined as well as effectively recognized within an unified framework consisting of a set of proposed concepts, models, and algorithms. Our findings provide a strong evidence that most real-world complex systems are driven by a combination of heterogeneous mechanisms that may col-1 laboratively shape their ubiquitous multiplex structures as we observe currently. This work also contributes a mathematical tool for analyzing different sources of networks from a new perspective of unveiling multiplex structures, which will be beneficial to multiple disciplines including sociology, economics and computer science. 1 Introduction Complex network analysis provides a novel approach to examining how networked systems in nature are originated and evolving according to what basic principles, and moreover armed with such discovered principles, constructing efficient, robust as well as flexible man-made networked systems under different constraints.

Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are a popular framework to express multivariate probability distributions. Acyclic directed mixed graphs (ADMGs) are generalizations of DAGs that can succinctly capture much richer sets of conditional independencies, and are especially useful in modeling the effects of latent variables implicitly. Unfortunately there are currently no good parameterizations of general ADMGs. In this paper, we apply recent work on cumulative distribution networks and copulas to propose one one general construction for ADMG models. We consider a simple parameter estimation approach, and report some encouraging experimental results.

The scientific method relies on the iterated processes of inference and inquiry. The inference phase consists of selecting the most probable models based on the available data; whereas the inquiry phase consists of using what is known about the models to select the most relevant experiment. Optimizing inquiry involves searching the parameterized space of experiments to select the experiment that promises, on average, to be maximally informative. In the case where it is important to learn about each of the model parameters, the relevance of an experiment is quantified by Shannon entropy of the distribution of experimental outcomes predicted by a probable set of models. If the set of potential experiments is described by many parameters, we must search this high-dimensional entropy space. Brute force search methods will be slow and computationally expensive. We present an entropy-based search algorithm, called nested entropy sampling, to select the most informative experiment for efficient experimental design. This algorithm is inspired by Skilling's nested sampling algorithm used in inference and borrows the concept of a rising threshold while a set of experiment samples are maintained. We demonstrate that this algorithm not only selects highly relevant experiments, but also is more efficient than brute force search. Such entropic search techniques promise to greatly benefit autonomous experimental design.

The successful completion of a software development process depends on the analytical capability and foresightedness of the project manager. For the project manager, the main intriguing task is to manage the risk factors as they adversely influence the completion deadline. One such key risk factor is staff training. The risk of this factor can be avoided by pre-judging the amount of training required by the staff. So, a procedure is required to help the project manager make this decision. This paper presents a system that uses influence diagrams to implement the risk model to aid decision making. The system also considers the cost of conducting the training, based on various risk factors such as, (i) Lack of experience with project software; (ii) Newly appointed staff; (iii) Staff not well versed with the required quality standards; and (iv) Lack of experience with project environment. The system provides estimated requirement details for staff training at the beginning of a software development project.

This paper proposes a method to construct an adaptive agent that is universal with respect to a given class of experts, where each expert is designed specifically for a particular environment. This adaptive control problem is formalized as the problem of minimizing the relative entropy of the adaptive agent from the expert that is most suitable for the unknown environment. If the agent is a passive observer, then the optimal solution is the well-known Bayesian predictor. However, if the agent is active, then its past actions need to be treated as causal interventions on the I/O stream rather than normal probability conditions. Here it is shown that the solution to this new variational problem is given by a stochastic controller called the Bayesian control rule, which implements adaptive behavior as a mixture of experts. Furthermore, it is shown that under mild assumptions, the Bayesian control rule converges to the control law of the most suitable expert.

Many problems of low-level computer vision and image processing, such as denoising, deconvolution, tomographic reconstruction or super-resolution, can be addressed by maximizing the posterior distribution of a sparse linear model (SLM). We show how higher-order Bayesian decision-making problems, such as optimizing image acquisition in magnetic resonance scanners, can be addressed by querying the SLM posterior covariance, unrelated to the density's mode. We propose a scalable algorithmic framework, with which SLM posteriors over full, high-resolution images can be approximated for the first time, solving a variational optimization problem which is convex iff posterior mode finding is convex. These methods successfully drive the optimization of sampling trajectories for real-world magnetic resonance imaging through Bayesian experimental design, which has not been attempted before. Our methodology provides new insight into similarities and differences between sparse reconstruction and approximate Bayesian inference, and has important implications for compressive sensing of real-world images.