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 Bayesian Inference


A Neural-Symbolic Cognitive Agent for Online Learning and Reasoning

AAAI Conferences

In real-world applications, the effective integration of learning and reasoning in a cognitive agent model is a difficult task. However, such integration may lead to a better understanding, use and construction of more realistic models. Unfortunately, existing models are either oversimplified or require much processing time, which is unsuitable for online learning and reasoning. Currently, controlled environments like training simulators do not effectively integrate learning and reasoning. In particular, higher-order concepts and cognitive abilities have many unknown temporal relations with the data, making it impossible to represent such relationships by hand. We introduce a novel cognitive agent model and architecture for online learning and reasoning that seeks to effectively represent, learn and reason in complex training environments. The agent architecture of the model combines neural learning with symbolic knowledge representation. It is capable of learning new hypotheses from observed data, and infer new beliefs based on these hypotheses. Furthermore, it deals with uncertainty and errors in the data using a Bayesian inference model. The validation of the model on real-time simulations and the results presented here indicate the promise of the approach when performing online learning and reasoning in real-world scenarios, with possible applications in a range of areas.


A Maximum Likelihood Approach Towards Aggregating Partial Orders

AAAI Conferences

In many of the possible applications as well as the theoretical models of computational social choice,the agents’ preferences are represented as partialorders. In this paper, we extend the maximum likelihood approach for defining “optimal” voting rules to this setting. We consider distributions in which the pairwise comparisons / incomparabilities between alternatives are drawn i.i.d. We call suchmodels pairwise-independentmodels and show that they correspond to a class of voting rules that we call pairwise scoring rules. This generalizes rulessuch as Kemeny and Borda. Moreover, we show that Borda is the only pairwise scoring rule that satisfies neutrality, when the outcome space is the set of all alternatives. We then study which voting rules defined for linear orders can be extended to partial orders via our MLE model. We show that any weakly neutral outcome scoring rule (includingany ranking/candidate scoring rule) based onthe weighted majority graph can be represented as the MLE of a weakly neutral pairwise-independent model. Therefore, all such rules admit natural extensionsto profiles of partial orders. Finally, we propose a specific MLE model π k for generating a set of k winning alternatives, and study the computational complexity of winner determination for the MLE of π k .


Probit Classifiers with a Generalized Gaussian Scale Mixture Prior

AAAI Conferences

Most of the existing probit classifiers are based on sparsity-oriented modeling. However, we show that sparsity is not always desirable in practice, and only an appropriate degree of sparsity is profitable. In this work, we propose a flexible probabilistic model using a generalized Gaussian scale mixture prior that can promote an appropriate degree of sparsity for its model parameters, and yield either sparse or non-sparse estimates according to the intrinsic sparsity of features in a dataset. Model learning is carried out by an efficient modified maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate. We also show relationships of the proposed model to existing probit classifiers as well as iteratively re-weighted l1 and l2 minimizations. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed method has better or comparable performances in feature selection for linear classifiers as well as in kernel-based classification.


A General MCMC Method for Bayesian Inference in Logic-Based Probabilistic Modeling

AAAI Conferences

We propose a general MCMC method for Bayesian inference in logic-based probabilistic modeling. It covers a broad class of generative models including Bayesian networks and PCFGs. The idea is to generalize an MCMC method for PCFGs to the one for a Turing-complete probabilistic modeling language PRISM in the context of statistical abduction where parse trees are replaced with explanations. We describe how to estimate the marginal probability of data from MCMC samples and how to perform Bayesian Viterbi inference using an example of Naive Bayes model augmented with a hidden variable.


Learning Decision Rules from Data Streams

AAAI Conferences

However, it has been shown that the antecedents of individual rules Decision rules, which can provide good interpretability may contain irrelevant conditions. C4.5rules (Quinlan, 1993) and flexibility for data mining tasks, uses an optimization procedure to simplify conditions. The have received very little attention in the stream optimization is done in two phases. First, each rule is generalized mining community so far. In this work we introduce by deleting conditions that do not seem to be helpful a new algorithm to learn rule sets, designed in discriminating the classes. A greedy search method is for open-ended data streams.


Inference with Multinomial Data: Why to Weaken the Prior Strength

AAAI Conferences

This paper considers inference from multinomial data and addresses the problem of choosing the strength of the Dirichlet prior under a mean-squared error criterion. We compare the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) and the most commonly used Bayesian estimators obtained by assuming a prior Dirichlet distribution with non-informative prior parameters, that is, the parameters of the Dirichlet are equal and altogether sum up to the so called strength of the prior. Under this criterion, MLE becomes more preferable than the Bayesian estimators at the increase of the number of categories k of the multinomial, because non-informative Bayesian estimators induce a region where they are dominant that quickly shrinks with the increase of k. This can be avoided if the strength of the prior is not kept constant but decreased with the number of categories. We argue that the strength should decrease at least k times faster than usual estimators do.


Short Text Conceptualization Using a Probabilistic Knowledgebase

AAAI Conferences

Most of the text mining tasks, such as clustering, is dominated by statistical approaches that treat text as a bag of words. Semantics in the text is largely ignored in the mining process, and the mining results are often not easily interpretable. One particular challenge faced by such approaches is short text understanding, as short text lacks enough content from which a statistical conclusion can be drawn. For example, traditional topic analysis methods consider topic segments with tens of hundreds of words. Latent topic modeling, such as latent Dirichlet allocation, also requires sufficient words to infer document topic distribution. We enhance machine learning algorithms by first giving the machine a probabilistic knowledgebase that contains as big, rich, and consistent concepts (of worldly facts) as those in our mental world. Then a Bayesian inference mechanism is developed to conceptualize words and short text. We conducted comprehensive tests of our method on conceptualizing set of text terms, as well as clustering Twitter messages (tweets), which are typically approximately ten words long. Compared to latent semantic topic modeling and other four kinds of methods that using WordNet, Freebase and Wikipedia (category links and explicit semantic analysis), we show significant improvements in terms of tweets clustering accuracy.


Bayesian Abductive Logic Programs: A Probabilistic Logic for Abductive Reasoning

AAAI Conferences

In this proposal, we introduce Bayesian Abductive Logic Programs (BALP), a probabilistic logic that adapts Bayesian Logic Programs (BLPs) for abductive reasoning. Like BLPs, BALPs also combine first-order logic and Bayes nets. However, unlike BLPs, which use deduction to construct Bayes nets, BALPs employ logical abduction. As a result, BALPs are more suited for problems like plan/activity recognition that require abductive reasoning. In order to demonstrate the efficacy of BALPs, we apply it to two abductive reasoning tasks — plan recognition and natural language understanding.


CHIME: An Efficient Error-Tolerant Chinese Pinyin Input Method

AAAI Conferences

Chinese Pinyin input methods are very important for Chinese language processing. In many cases, users may make typing errors. For example, a user wants to type in "shenme" (什么, meaning "what" in English) but may type in "shenem" instead. Existing Pinyin input methods fail in converting such a Pinyin sequence with errors to the right Chinese words. To solve this problem, we developed an efficient error-tolerant Pinyin input method called "CHIME'' that can handle typing errors. By incorporating state-of-the-art techniques and language-specific features, the method achieves a better performance than state-of-the-art input methods. It can efficiently find relevant words in milliseconds for an input Pinyin sequence.


Pattern Field Classification with Style Normalized Transformation

AAAI Conferences

Field classification is an extension of the traditional classification framework, by breaking the i.i.d. assumption. In field classification, patterns occur as groups (fields) of homogeneous styles. By utilizing style consistency, classifying groups of patterns is often more accurate than classifying single patterns. In this paper, we extend the Bayes decision theory, and develop the Field Bayesian Model (FBM) to deal with field classification. Specifically, we propose to learn a Style Normalized Transformation (SNT) for each field. Via the SNTs, the data of different fields are transformed to a uniform style space (i.i.d. space). The proposed model is a general and systematic framework, under which many probabilistic models can be easily extended for field classification. To transfer the model to unseen styles, we propose a transductive model called Transfer Bayesian Rule (TBR) based on self-training. We conducted extensive experiments on face, speech and a large-scale handwriting dataset, and got significant error rate reduction compared to the state-of-the-art methods.