Idempotent Generative Networks (IGNs) are deep generative models that also function as local data manifold projectors, mapping arbitrary inputs back onto the manifold. They are trained to act as identity operators on the data and as idempotent operators off the data manifold. However, IGNs suffer from mode collapse, mode dropping, and training instability due to their objectives, which contain adversarial components and can cause the model to cover the data manifold only partially -- an issue shared with generative adversarial networks. We introduce Non-Adversarial Idempotent Generative Networks (NAIGNs) to address these issues. Our loss function combines reconstruction with the non-adversarial generative objective of Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE). This improves on IGN's ability to restore corrupted data and generate new samples that closely match the data distribution. We moreover demonstrate that NAIGNs implicitly learn the distance field to the data manifold, as well as an energy-based model.

Large language models (LLMs) are often queried multiple times at test time, with predictions aggregated by majority vote. While effective, this self-consistency strategy (arXiv:2203.11171) requires a fixed number of calls and can fail when the correct answer is rare. We introduce Confidence-Guided Early Stopping (CGES), a Bayesian framework that forms posteriors over candidate answers using scalar confidence signals derived from token probabilities or reward models. CGES adaptively halts sampling once the posterior mass of a candidate exceeds a threshold. We provide theoretical guarantees for both perfectly calibrated confidences and realistic noisy confidence signals. Across five reasoning benchmarks, CGES reduces the average number of model calls by about 69 percent (for example, from 16.0 to 4.9) while matching the accuracy of self-consistency within 0.06 percentage points.

Pulsar Timing Arrays provide a powerful framework to measure low-frequency gravitational waves, but accuracy and robustness of the results are challenged by complex noise processes that must be accurately modeled. Standard PTA analyses assign fixed uniform noise priors to each pulsar, an approach that can introduce systematic biases when combining the array. To overcome this limitation, we adopt a hierarchical Bayesian modeling strategy in which noise priors are parametrized by higher-level hyperparameters. We further address the challenge posed by the correlations between hyperparameters and physical noise parameters, focusing on those describing red noise and dispersion measure variations. To decorrelate these quantities, we introduce an orthogonal reparametrization of the hierarchical model implemented with Normalizing Flows. We also employ i-nessai, a flow-guided nested sampler, to efficiently explore the resulting higher-dimensional parameter space. We apply our method to a minimal 3-pulsar case study, performing a simultaneous inference of noise and SGWB parameters. Despite the limited dataset, the results consistently show that the hierarchical treatment constrains the noise parameters more tightly and partially alleviates the red-noise-SGWB degeneracy, while the orthogonal reparametrization further enhances parameter independence without affecting the correlations intrinsic to the power-law modeling of the physical processes involved.

We present a detailed study of Bayesian inference workflows for pulsar timing array data with a focus on enhancing efficiency, robustness and speed through the use of normalizing flow-based nested sampling. Building on the Enterprise framework, we integrate the i-nessai sampler and benchmark its performance on realistic, simulated datasets. We analyze its computational scaling and stability, and show that it achieves accurate posteriors and reliable evidence estimates with substantially reduced runtime, by up to three orders of magnitude depending on the dataset configuration, with respect to conventional single-core parallel-tempering MCMC analyses. These results highlight the potential of flow-based nested sampling to accelerate PTA analyses while preserving the quality of the inference.

Statistical analysis of corpora provides an approach to quantitatively investigate natural languages. This approach has revealed that several power laws consistently emerge across different corpora and languages, suggesting universal mechanisms underlying languages. Particularly, the power-law decay of correlation has been interpreted as evidence for underlying hierarchical structures in syntax, semantics, and discourse. This perspective has also been extended to child speeches and animal signals. However, the argument supporting this interpretation has not been empirically tested in natural languages. To address this problem, the present study examines the validity of the argument for syntactic structures. Specifically, we test whether the statistical properties of parse trees align with the assumptions in the argument. Using English and Japanese corpora, we analyze the mutual information, deviations from probabilistic context-free grammars (PCFGs), and other properties in natural language parse trees, as well as in the PCFG that approximates these parse trees. Our results indicate that the assumptions do not hold for syntactic structures and that it is difficult to apply the proposed argument to child speeches and animal signals, highlighting the need to reconsider the relationship between the power law and hierarchical structures.

Preconditioning is a key component of MCMC algorithms that improves sampling efficiency by facilitating exploration of geometrically complex target distributions through an invertible map. While linear preconditioners are often sufficient for moderately complex target distributions, recent work has explored nonlinear preconditioning with invertible neural networks as components of normalizing flows (NFs). However, empirical and theoretical studies show that overparameterized NF preconditioners can degrade sampling efficiency and fit quality. Moreover, existing NF-based approaches do not adapt their architectures to the target distribution. Related work outside of MCMC similarly finds that suitably parameterized NFs can achieve comparable or superior performance with substantially less training time or data. We propose a factorized preconditioning architecture that reduces NF complexity by combining a linear component with a conditional NF, improving adaptability to target geometry. The linear preconditioner is applied to dimensions that are approximately Gaussian, as estimated from warmup samples, while the conditional NF models more complex dimensions. Our method yields significantly better tail samples on two complex synthetic distributions and consistently better performance on a sparse logistic regression posterior across varying likelihood and prior strengths. It also achieves higher effective sample sizes on hierarchical Bayesian model posteriors with weak likelihoods and strong funnel geometries. This approach is particularly relevant for hierarchical Bayesian model analyses with limited data and could inform current theoretical and software strides in neural MCMC design.

Large language models (LLMs) can be controlled at inference time through prompts (in-context learning) and internal activations (activation steering). Different accounts have been proposed to explain these methods, yet their common goal of controlling model behavior raises the question of whether these seemingly disparate methodologies can be seen as specific instances of a broader framework. Motivated by this, we develop a unifying, predictive account of LLM control from a Bayesian perspective. Specifically, we posit that both context- and activation-based interventions impact model behavior by altering its belief in latent concepts: steering operates by changing concept priors, while in-context learning leads to an accumulation of evidence. This results in a closed-form Bayesian model that is highly predictive of LLM behavior across context- and activation-based interventions in a set of domains inspired by prior work on many-shot in-context learning. This model helps us explain prior empirical phenomena - e.g., sigmoidal learning curves as in-context evidence accumulates - while predicting novel ones - e.g., additivity of both interventions in log-belief space, which results in distinct phases such that sudden and dramatic behavioral shifts can be induced by slightly changing intervention controls. Taken together, this work offers a unified account of prompt-based and activation-based control of LLM behavior, and a methodology for empirically predicting the effects of these interventions.

In recent years, the pen and paper RPG market has experienced significant growth. As a result, companies are increasingly exploring the integration of AI technologies to enhance player experience and gain a competitive edge. One of the key challenges faced by publishers is designing new opponents and estimating their challenge level. Currently, there are no automated methods for determining a monster's level; the only approaches used are based on manual testing and expert evaluation. Although these manual methods can provide reasonably accurate estimates, they are time-consuming and resource-intensive. Level prediction can be approached using ordinal regression techniques. This thesis presents an overview and evaluation of state-of-the-art methods for this task. It also details the construction of a dedicated dataset for level estimation. Furthermore, a human-inspired model was developed to serve as a benchmark, allowing comparison between machine learning algorithms and the approach typically employed by pen and paper RPG publishers. In addition, a specialized evaluation procedure, grounded in domain knowledge, was designed to assess model performance and facilitate meaningful comparisons.

Cycle rickshaw pullers are highly vulnerable to extreme heat, yet little is known about how their physiological biomarkers respond under such conditions. This study collected real-time weather and physiological data using wearable sensors from 100 rickshaw pullers in Dhaka, Bangladesh. In addition, interviews with 12 pullers explored their knowledge, perceptions, and experiences related to climate change. We developed a Linear Gaussian Bayesian Network (LGBN) regression model to predict key physiological biomarkers based on activity, weather, and demographic features. The model achieved normalized mean absolute error values of 0.82, 0.47, 0.65, and 0.67 for skin temperature, relative cardiac cost, skin conductance response, and skin conductance level, respectively. Using projections from 18 CMIP6 climate models, we layered the LGBN on future climate forecasts to analyze survivability for current (2023-2025) and future years (2026-2100). Based on thresholds of WBGT above 31.1°C and skin temperature above 35°C, 32% of rickshaw pullers already face high heat exposure risk. By 2026-2030, this percentage may rise to 37% with average exposure lasting nearly 12 minutes, or about two-thirds of the trip duration. A thematic analysis of interviews complements these findings, showing that rickshaw pullers recognize their increasing climate vulnerability and express concern about its effects on health and occupational survivability.

This paper presents a coordinate ascent algorithm to learn dynamic and measurement models in dynamic state estimation using maximum likelihood estimation in a supervised manner. In particular, the dynamic and measurement models are assumed to be Gaussian and the algorithm learns the neural network parameters that model the dynamic and measurement functions, and also the noise covariance matrices. The trained dynamic and measurement models are then used with a non-linear Kalman filter algorithm to estimate the state during the testing phase.