Computer Go presents a challenging problem for machine learning agents. With the number of possible board states estimated to be larger than the number of hydrogen atoms in the universe, learning effective policies or board evaluation functions is extremely difficult. In this paper we describe Cortigo, a system that efficiently and autonomously learns useful generalizations for large state-space classification problems such as Go. Cortigo uses a hierarchical generative model loosely related to the human visual cortex to recognize Go board positions well enough to suggest promising next moves. We begin by briefly describing and providing motivation for research in the computer Go domain. We describe Cortigo’s ability to learn predictive models based on large subsets of the Go board and demonstrate how using Cortigo’s learned models as additive knowledge in a state-of-the-art computer Go player (Fuego) significantly improves its playing strength.

Dependency networks are a compelling alternative to Bayesian networks for learning joint probability distributions from data and using them to compute probabilities. A dependency network consists of a set of conditional probability distributions, each representing the probability of a single variable given its Markov blanket. Running Gibbs sampling with these conditional distributions produces a joint distribution that can be used to answer queries, but suffers from the traditional slowness of sampling-based inference. In this paper, we observe that the mean field update equation can be applied to dependency networks, even though the conditional probability distributions may be inconsistent with each other. In experiments with learning and inference on 12 datasets, we demonstrate that mean field inference in dependency networks offers similar accuracy to Gibbs sampling but with orders of magnitude improvements in speed. Compared to Bayesian networks learned on the same data, dependency networks offer higher accuracy at greater amounts of evidence. Furthermore, mean field inference is consistently more accurate in dependency networks than in Bayesian networks learned on the same data.

We consider a learning setting of importance to large scale machine learning: potentially unlimited data arrives sequentially, but only a small fraction of it is labeled. The learner cannot store the data; it should learn from both labeled and unlabeled data, and it may also request labels for some of the unlabeled items. This setting is frequently encountered in real-world applications and has the characteristics of online, semi-supervised, and active learning. Yet previous learning models fail to consider these characteristics jointly. We present OASIS, a Bayesian model for this learning setting. The main contributions of the model include the novel integration of a semi-supervised likelihood function, a sequential Monte Carlo scheme for efficient online Bayesian updating, and a posterior-reduction criterion for active learning. Encouraging results on both synthetic and real-world optical character recognition data demonstrate the synergy of these characteristics in OASIS.

Categories are often organized into hierarchical taxonomies, that is, tree structures where each node represents a labeled category, and a node's parent and children are, respectively, the category's supertype and subtypes. A natural question is whether it is possible to reconstruct category taxonomies in cases where we are not given explicit information about how categories are related to each other, but only a sample of observations of the members of each category. In this paper, we introduce a nonparametric Bayesian model of multi-level category learning, an extension of the hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) that we call the tree-HDP. We demonstrate the ability of the tree-HDP to reconstruct simulated datasets of artificial taxonomies, and show that it produces similar performance to human learners on a taxonomy inference task.

Peer reviewing is the key ingredient of evaluating the quality of scientific work. Based on the review scores assigned by the individual reviewers to the submissions, program committees of conferences and journal editors decide which papers to accept for publication and which to reject. However, some reviewers may be more rigorous than others, they may be biased one way or the other, and they often have highly subjective preferences over the papers they review. Moreover, each reviewer usually has only a very local view, as he or she evaluates only a small fraction of the submissions. Despite all these shortcomings, the review scores obtained need to be aggregrated in order to globally rank all submissions and to make the acceptance/rejection decision. A common method is to simply take the average of each submission's review scores, possibly weighted by the reviewers' confidence levels. Unfortunately, the global ranking thus produced often suffers a certain unfairness, as the reviewers' biases and limitations are not taken into account. We propose a method for calibrating the scores of reviewers that are potentially biased and blindfolded by having only partial information. Our method uses a maximum likelihood estimator, which estimates both the bias of each individual reviewer and the unknown "ideal" score of each submission. This yields a quadratic program whose solution transforms the individual review scores into calibrated, globally comparable scores. We argue why our method results in a fairer and more reasonable global ranking than simply taking the average of scores. To show its usefulness, we test our method empirically using real-world data.

We present a spectrum-based, sequential software debugging approach coined Sequoia, that greedily selects tests out of a suite of tests to narrow down the set of diagnostic candidates with a minimum number of tests. Sequoia handles multiple faults, that can be intermittent, at polynomial time and space complexity, due to a novel, approximate diagnostic entropy estimation approach, which considers the subset of diagnoses that cover almost all Bayesian posterior probability mass. Synthetic experiments show that Sequoia achieves much better diagnostic uncertainty reduction compared to random test sequencing.Real programs, taken from the Software Infrastructure Repository, confirm Sequoia's better performance, with a test reduction up to 80% compared to random test sequences.

We present a first theoretical analysis of the power of polynomial-time preprocessing for important combinatorial problems from various areas in AI. We consider problems from Constraint Satisfaction, Global Constraints, Satisfiability, Nonmonotonic and Bayesian Reasoning. We show that, subject to a complexity theoretic assumption, none of the considered problems can be reduced by polynomial-time preprocessing to a problem kernel whose size is polynomial in a structural problem parameter of the input, such as induced width or backdoor size. Our results provide a firm theoretical boundary for the performance of polynomial-time preprocessing algorithms for the considered problems.

We address the issue of knots selection for Gaussian predictive process methodology. Predictive process approximation provides an effective solution to the cubic order computational complexity of Gaussian process models. This approximation crucially depends on a set of points, called knots, at which the original process is retained, while the rest is approximated via a deterministic extrapolation. Knots should be few in number to keep the computational complexity low, but provide a good coverage of the process domain to limit approximation error. We present theoretical calculations to show that coverage must be judged by the canonical metric of the Gaussian process. This necessitates having in place a knots selection algorithm that automatically adapts to the changes in the canonical metric affected by changes in the parameter values controlling the Gaussian process covariance function. We present an algorithm toward this by employing an incomplete Cholesky factorization with pivoting and dynamic stopping. Although these concepts already exist in the literature, our contribution lies in unifying them into a fast algorithm and in using computable error bounds to finesse implementation of the predictive process approximation. The resulting adaptive predictive process offers a substantial automatization of Guassian process model fitting, especially for Bayesian applications where thousands of values of the covariance parameters are to be explored.

A nonparametric Bayesian extension of Factor Analysis (FA) is proposed where observed data $\mathbf{Y}$ is modeled as a linear superposition, $\mathbf{G}$, of a potentially infinite number of hidden factors, $\mathbf{X}$. The Indian Buffet Process (IBP) is used as a prior on $\mathbf{G}$ to incorporate sparsity and to allow the number of latent features to be inferred. The model's utility for modeling gene expression data is investigated using randomly generated data sets based on a known sparse connectivity matrix for E. Coli, and on three biological data sets of increasing complexity.

Many widely studied graphical models with latent variables lead to nontrivial constraints on the distribution of the observed variables. Inspired by the Bell inequalities in quantum mechanics, we refer to any linear inequality whose violation rules out some latent variable model as a "hidden variable test" for that model. Our main contribution is to introduce a sequence of relaxations which provides progressively tighter hidden variable tests. We demonstrate applicability to mixtures of sequences of i.i.d. variables, Bell inequalities, and homophily models in social networks. For the last, we demonstrate that our method provides a test that is able to rule out latent homophily as the sole explanation for correlations on a real social network that are known to be due to influence.