A key problem in statistical modeling is model selection, how to choose a model at an appropriate level of complexity. This problem appears in many settings, most prominently in choosing the number ofclusters in mixture models or the number of factors in factor analysis. In this tutorial we describe Bayesian nonparametric methods, a class of methods that side-steps this issue by allowing the data to determine the complexity of the model. This tutorial is a high-level introduction to Bayesian nonparametric methods and contains several examples of their application.

Integrating the expressive power of first-order logic with the ability of probabilistic reasoning of Bayesian networks has attracted the interest of many researchers for decades. We present an approach to integration that translates logical knowledge into Bayesian networks and uses Bayesian network composition to build a uniform representation that supports both logical and probabilistic reasoning. In particular, we propose a new way of translation of logical knowledge, relation search. Through the use of the proposed framework, without learning new languages or tools, modelers are allowed to 1) specify special knowledge using the most suitable languages, while reasoning in a uniform engine; 2) make use of pre-existing logical knowledge bases for probabilistic reasoning (to complete the model or minimize potential inconsistencies).

We focus on a class of models used for representing the dynamics between a discrete set of probabilistic events in a continuous-time setting. The proposed framework offers tractable learning and inference procedures and provides compact state representations for processes which exhibit variable delays between events. The approach is applied to a heart sound labeling task that exhibits long-range dependencies on previous events, and in which explicit modeling of the rhythm timings is justifiable by cardiological principles.

We address the problem of building a continuous occupancy representation of the environment with ranging sensors. Observations from such sensors provide two types of information: a line segment or a beam indicating no returns along them (free-space); a point or return at the end of the segment representing an occupied surface. To model these two types of observations in a principled statistical manner, we propose a novel methodology based on integral kernels. We show that integral kernels can be directly incorporated into a Gaussian process classification (GPC) framework to provide a continuous non-parametric Bayesian estimation of occupancy. Directly handling line segment and point observations avoids the need to discretise segments into points, reducing the computational cost of GPC inference and learning. We present experiments on 2D and 3D datasets demonstrating the benefits of the approach.

The automated processing of multiple seismic signals to detect and localize seismic events is a central tool in both geophysics and nuclear treaty verification. This paper reports on a project, begun in 2009, to reformulate this problem in a Bayesian framework. A Bayesian seismic monitoring system, NET-VISA, has been built comprising a spatial event prior and generative models of event transmission and detection, as well as an inference algorithm. Applied in the context of the International Monitoring System (IMS), a global sensor network developed for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), NET-VISA achieves a reduction of around 50% in the number of missed events compared to the currently deployed system. It also finds events that are missed even by the human analysts who post-process the IMS output.

In order to better protect and conserve biodiversity, ecologists use machine learning and statistics to understand how species respond to their environment and to predict how they will respond to future climate change, habitat loss and other threats. A fundamental modeling task is to estimate the probability that a given species is present in (or uses) a site, conditional on environmental variables such as precipitation and temperature. For a limited number of species, survey data consisting of both presence and absence records are available, and can be used to fit a variety of conventional classification and regression models. For most species, however, the available data consist only of occurrence records --- locations where the species has been observed. In two closely-related but separate bodies of ecological literature, diverse special-purpose models have been developed that contrast occurrence data with a random sample of available environmental conditions. The most widespread statistical approaches involve either fitting an exponential model of species' conditional probability of presence, or fitting a naive logistic model in which the random sample of available conditions is treated as absence data; both approaches have well-known drawbacks, and do not necessarily produce valid probabilities. After summarizing existing methods, we overcome their drawbacks by introducing a new scaled binomial loss function for estimating an underlying logistic model of species presence/absence. Like the Expectation-Maximization approach of Ward et al. and the method of Steinberg and Cardell, our approach requires an estimate of population prevalence, $\Pr(y=1)$, since prevalence is not identifiable from occurrence data alone. In contrast to the latter two methods, our loss function is straightforward to integrate into a variety of existing modeling frameworks such as generalized linear and additive models and boosted regression trees. We also demonstrate that approaches by Lele and Keim and by Lancaster and Imbens that surmount the identifiability issue by making parametric data assumptions do not typically produce valid probability estimates.

Sentiment analysis is the task of determining the attitude (positive or negative) of documents. While the polarity of words in the documents is informative for this task, polarity of some words cannot be determined without domain knowledge. Detecting word polarity thus poses a challenge for multiple-domain sentiment analysis. Previous approaches tackle this problem with transfer learning techniques, but they cannot handle multiple source domains and multiple target domains. This paper proposes a novel Bayesian probabilistic model to handle multiple source and multiple target domains. In this model, each word is associated with three factors: Domain label, domain dependence/independence and word polarity. We derive an efficient algorithm using Gibbs sampling for inferring the parameters of the model, from both labeled and unlabeled texts. Using real data, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our model in a document polarity classification task compared with a method not considering the differences between domains. Moreover our method can also tell whether each word's polarity is domain-dependent or domain-independent. This feature allows us to construct a word polarity dictionary for each domain.

We present a novel approach for identifying exact and approximate behavioral equivalence between models of agents. This is significant because both decision making and game play in multiagent settings must contend with behavioral models of other agents in order to predict their actions. One approach that reduces the complexity of the model space is to group models that are behaviorally equivalent. Identifying equivalence between models requires solving them and comparing entire policy trees. Because the trees grow exponentially with the horizon, our approach is to focus on partial policy trees for comparison and determining the distance between updated beliefs at the leaves of the trees. We propose a principled way to determine how much of the policy trees to consider, which trades off solution quality for efficiency. We investigate this approach in the context of the interactive dynamic influence diagram and evaluate its performance.

From an automated planning perspective the problem of practical mobile robot control in realistic environments poses many important and contrary challenges. On the one hand, the planning process must be lightweight, robust, and timely. Over the lifetime of the robot it must always respond quickly with new plans that accommodate exogenous events, changing objectives, and the underlying unpredictability of the environment. On the other hand, in order to promote efficient behaviours the planning process must perform computationally expensive reasoning about contingencies and possible revisions of subjective beliefs according to quantitatively modelled uncertainty in acting and sensing. Towards addressing these challenges, we develop a continual planning approach that switches between using a fast satisficing "classical" planner, to decide on the overall strategy, and decision-theoretic planning to solve small abstract subproblems where deeper consideration of the sensing model is both practical, and can significantly impact overall performance. We evaluate our approach in large problems from a realistic robot exploration domain.

In this paper, we propose a new unsupervised approach for word segmentation. The core idea of our approach is a novel word induction criterion called WordRank, which estimates the goodness of word hypotheses (character or phoneme sequences). We devise a method to derive exterior word boundary information from the link structures of adjacent word hypotheses and incorporate interior word boundary information to complete the model. In light of WordRank, word segmentation can be modeled as an optimization problem. A Viterbi-styled algorithm is developed for the search of the optimal segmentation. Extensive experiments conducted on phonetic transcripts as well as standard Chinese and Japanese data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. On the standard Brent version of Bernstein-Ratner corpora, our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art Bayesian models by more than 3%. Plus, our approach is simpler and more efficient than the Bayesian methods. Consequently, our approach is more suitable for real-world applications.