We combine Bayesian networks (BNs) and structural reliability methods (SRMs) to create a new computational framework, termed enhanced Bayesian network (eBN), for reliability and risk analysis of engineering structures and infrastructure. BNs are efficient in representing and evaluating complex probabilistic dependence structures, as present in infrastructure and structural systems, and they facilitate Bayesian updating of the model when new information becomes available. On the other hand, SRMs enable accurate assessment of probabilities of rare events represented by computationally demanding, physically-based models. By combining the two methods, the eBN framework provides a unified and powerful tool for efficiently computing probabilities of rare events in complex structural and infrastructure systems in which information evolves in time. Strategies for modeling and efficiently analyzing the eBN are described by way of several conceptual examples. The companion paper applies the eBN methodology to example structural and infrastructure systems.

Computational social science, as with all complex adaptive systems sciences, involves a great amount of uncertainty on several fronts, including intrinsic arbitrariness such as that due to path dependence, disagreement on social theory and how to capture it in software, input data of different credibility that does not exactly match the requirements of software because it was gathered for another purpose, and inexactly matching translations between models that were designed for different purposes than the study at hand. This paper presents a method of formally tracking that uncertainty, keeping the data input parameters proportionate with logical and probabilistic constraints, and capturing proportionate dynamics of the output ordered by the decision points of policy change, for the purpose of risk-based analysis. Once ordered this way, the data can be compared to other data similarly expressed, whether that data is from simulation excursions or from the real world, for objective comparison and distance scoring at the level of dynamic patterns as opposed to single outcome validation. This method enables wargame adjudicators to be run out with data gleaned from the wargame, enables data to be repurposed for both training and testing set, and facilitates objective validation scoring through soft matching. Artificial intelligence tools used in the method include probabilistic ontologies with crisp and Bayesian inference, game trees that are multiplayer non-zero sum and decision point based rather than turn-based, and Markov processes to represent the dynamic data and align the models for objective comparison.

There are an increasing number of applications of security games. One of the key challenges for this field going forward is to address the problem of model uncertainty and the robustness of the game-theoretic solutions. Most existing methods for dealing with payoff uncertainty are Bayesian methods which are NP-hard and have difficulty scaling to very large problems. In this work we consider an alternative approach based on interval uncertainty. For a variant of security games with interval uncertainty we introduce a polynomial-time approximation algorithm that can compute very accurate solutions within a given error bound.

The concept of trust in web services describes the degree of belief that a client or a group of clients have over services functioning satisfactorily and providing the expected results. As services are usually invoked in composition with other services, judging on their trustworthiness gets more complicated, yet computing their trustworthy becomes a desired goal. Existing work only take the trust of each individual service into account, regardless of the context of the composition. They also do not use the data gained from other clients for selecting the most trustful composition and preparing for possible service failures. In our work we first introduce the concept of Combination Reputation, which reflects the commonness and popularity of invoaction of a pair or group of services among other clients. By interpreting the trust and reputation values as subjective probability, we define the Component Trust of the services in the composition, which reflects the degree of belief the client has over components of services performing satisfactorily. We model the web service composition as a Bayesian network and integrate the above trust values into the network and show how to compute the global trust of the composition.

We propose a solution to the image deconvolution problem where the convolution kernel or point spread function (PSF) is assumed to be only partially known. Small perturbations generated from the model are exploited to produce a few principal components explaining the PSF uncertainty in a high dimensional space. Unlike recent developments on blind deconvolution of natural images, we assume the image is sparse in the pixel basis, a natural sparsity arising in magnetic resonance force microscopy (MRFM). Our approach adopts a Bayesian Metropolis-within-Gibbs sampling framework. The performance of our Bayesian semi-blind algorithm for sparse images is superior to previously proposed semi-blind algorithms such as the alternating minimization (AM) algorithm and blind algorithms developed for natural images. We illustrate our myopic algorithm on real MRFM tobacco virus data.

Multi-task learning is a learning paradigm which seeks to improve the generalization performance of a learning task with the help of some other related tasks. In this paper, we propose a regularization formulation for learning the relationships between tasks in multi-task learning. This formulation can be viewed as a novel generalization of the regularization framework for single-task learning. Besides modeling positive task correlation, our method, called multi-task relationship learning (MTRL), can also describe negative task correlation and identify outlier tasks based on the same underlying principle. Under this regularization framework, the objective function of MTRL is convex. For efficiency, we use an alternating method to learn the optimal model parameters for each task as well as the relationships between tasks. We study MTRL in the symmetric multi-task learning setting and then generalize it to the asymmetric setting as well. We also study the relationships between MTRL and some existing multi-task learning methods. Experiments conducted on a toy problem as well as several benchmark data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of MTRL.

In many fields observations are performed irregularly along time, due to either measurement limitations or lack of a constant immanent rate. While discrete-time Markov models (as Dynamic Bayesian Networks) introduce either inefficient computation or an information loss to reasoning about such processes, continuous-time Markov models assume either a discrete state space (as Continuous-Time Bayesian Networks), or a flat continuous state space (as stochastic differential equations). To address these problems, we present a new modeling class called Irregular-Time Bayesian Networks (ITBNs), generalizing Dynamic Bayesian Networks, allowing substantially more compact representations, and increasing the expressivity of the temporal dynamics. In addition, a globally optimal solution is guaranteed when learning temporal systems, provided that they are fully observed at the same irregularly spaced time-points, and a semiparametric subclass of ITBNs is introduced to allow further adaptation to the irregular nature of the available data.

We present a probabilistic model of events in continuous time in which each event triggers a Poisson process of successor events. The ensemble of observed events is thereby modeled as a superposition of Poisson processes. Efficient inference is feasible under this model with an EM algorithm. Moreover, the EM algorithm can be implemented as a distributed algorithm, permitting the model to be applied to very large datasets. We apply these techniques to the modeling of Twitter messages and the revision history of Wikipedia.

Most conventional Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms aim to optimize decision-making rules in terms of the expected returns. However, especially for risk management purposes, other risk-sensitive criteria such as the value-at-risk or the expected shortfall are sometimes preferred in real applications. Here, we describe a parametric method for estimating density of the returns, which allows us to handle various criteria in a unified manner. We first extend the Bellman equation for the conditional expected return to cover a conditional probability density of the returns. Then we derive an extension of the TD-learning algorithm for estimating the return densities in an unknown environment. As test instances, several parametric density estimation algorithms are presented for the Gaussian, Laplace, and skewed Laplace distributions. We show that these algorithms lead to risk-sensitive as well as robust RL paradigms through numerical experiments.

Relational learning can be used to augment one data source with other correlated sources of information, to improve predictive accuracy. We frame a large class of relational learning problems as matrix factorization problems, and propose a hierarchical Bayesian model. Training our Bayesian model using random-walk Metropolis-Hastings is impractically slow, and so we develop a block Metropolis-Hastings sampler which uses the gradient and Hessian of the likelihood to dynamically tune the proposal. We demonstrate that a predictive model of brain response to stimuli can be improved by augmenting it with side information about the stimuli.