Probabilistic programming languages and modeling toolkits are two modular ways to build and reuse stochastic models and inference procedures. Combining strengths of both, we express models and inference as generalized coroutines in the same general-purpose language. We use existing facilities of the language, such as rich libraries, optimizing compilers, and types, to develop concise, declarative, and realistic models with competitive performance on exact and approximate inference. In particular, a wide range of models can be expressed using memoization. Because deterministic parts of models run at full speed, custom inference procedures are trivial to incorporate, and inference procedures can reason about themselves without interpretive overhead. Within this framework, we introduce a new, general algorithm for importance sampling with look-ahead.

We present a new method to propagate lower bounds on conditional probability distributions in conventional Bayesian networks. Our method guarantees to provide outer approximations of the exact lower bounds. A key advantage is that we can use any available algorithms and tools for Bayesian networks in order to represent and infer lower bounds. This new method yields results that are provable exact for trees with binary variables, and results which are competitive to existing approximations in credal networks for all other network structures. Our method is not limited to a specific kind of network structure. Basically, it is also not restricted to a specific kind of inference, but we restrict our analysis to prognostic inference in this article. The computational complexity is superior to that of other existing approaches.

In this paper we introduce temporal action graph games (TAGGs), a novel graphical representation of imperfect-information extensive form games. We show that when a game involves anonymity or context-specific utility independencies, its encoding as a TAGG can be much more compact than its direct encoding as a multiagent influence diagram (MAID).We also show that TAGGs can be understood as indirect MAID encodings in which many deterministic chance nodes are introduced. We provide an algorithm for computing with TAGGs, and show both theoretically and empirically that our approach improves significantly on the previous state of the art.

Most Relevant Explanation (MRE) is a method for finding multivariate explanations for given evidence in Bayesian networks [12]. This paper studies the theoretical properties of MRE and develops an algorithm for finding multiple top MRE solutions. Our study shows that MRE relies on an implicit soft relevance measure in automatically identifying the most relevant target variables and pruning less relevant variables from an explanation. The soft measure also enables MRE to capture the intuitive phenomenon of explaining away encoded in Bayesian networks. Furthermore, our study shows that the solution space of MRE has a special lattice structure which yields interesting dominance relations among the solutions. A K-MRE algorithm based on these dominance relations is developed for generating a set of top solutions that are more representative. Our empirical results show that MRE methods are promising approaches for explanation in Bayesian networks.

This paper addresses the problem of community detection in networked data that combines link and content analysis. Most existing work combines link and content information by a generative model. There are two major shortcomings with the existing approaches. First, they assume that the probability of creating a link between two nodes is determined only by the community memberships of the nodes; however other factors (e.g. popularity) could also affect the link pattern. Second, they use generative models to model the content of individual nodes, whereas these generative models are vulnerable to the content attributes that are irrelevant to communities. We propose a Bayesian framework for combining link and content information for community detection that explicitly addresses these shortcomings. A new link model is presented that introduces a random variable to capture the node popularity when deciding the link between two nodes; a discriminative model is used to determine the community membership of a node by its content. An approximate inference algorithm is presented for efficient Bayesian inference. Our empirical study shows that the proposed framework outperforms several state-of-theart approaches in combining link and content information for community detection.

We consider the task of obtaining the maximum a posteriori estimate of discrete pairwise random fields with arbitrary unary potentials and semimetric pairwise potentials. For this problem, we propose an accurate hierarchical move making strategy where each move is computed efficiently by solving an st-MINCUT problem. Unlike previous move making approaches, e.g. the widely used a-expansion algorithm, our method obtains the guarantees of the standard linear programming (LP) relaxation for the important special case of metric labeling. Unlike the existing LP relaxation solvers, e.g. interior-point algorithms or tree-reweighted message passing, our method is significantly faster as it uses only the efficient st-MINCUT algorithm in its design. Using both synthetic and real data experiments, we show that our technique outperforms several commonly used algorithms.

In this paper we propose a class of prior distributions on decomposable graphs, allowing for improved modeling flexibility. While existing methods solely penalize the number of edges, the proposed work empowers practitioners to control clustering, level of separation, and other features of the graph. Emphasis is placed on a particular prior distribution which derives its motivation from the class of product partition models; the properties of this prior relative to existing priors is examined through theory and simulation. We then demonstrate the use of graphical models in the field of agriculture, showing how the proposed prior distribution alleviates the inflexibility of previous approaches in properly modeling the interactions between the yield of different crop varieties.

Imaging spectrometers measure electromagnetic energy scattered in their instantaneous field view in hundreds or thousands of spectral channels with higher spectral resolution than multispectral cameras. Imaging spectrometers are therefore often referred to as hyperspectral cameras (HSCs). Higher spectral resolution enables material identification via spectroscopic analysis, which facilitates countless applications that require identifying materials in scenarios unsuitable for classical spectroscopic analysis. Due to low spatial resolution of HSCs, microscopic material mixing, and multiple scattering, spectra measured by HSCs are mixtures of spectra of materials in a scene. Thus, accurate estimation requires unmixing. Pixels are assumed to be mixtures of a few materials, called endmembers. Unmixing involves estimating all or some of: the number of endmembers, their spectral signatures, and their abundances at each pixel. Unmixing is a challenging, ill-posed inverse problem because of model inaccuracies, observation noise, environmental conditions, endmember variability, and data set size. Researchers have devised and investigated many models searching for robust, stable, tractable, and accurate unmixing algorithms. This paper presents an overview of unmixing methods from the time of Keshava and Mustard's unmixing tutorial [1] to the present. Mixing models are first discussed. Signal-subspace, geometrical, statistical, sparsity-based, and spatial-contextual unmixing algorithms are described. Mathematical problems and potential solutions are described. Algorithm characteristics are illustrated experimentally.

This paper introduces a privacy-aware Bayesian approach that combines ensembles of classifiers and clusterers to perform semi-supervised and transductive learning. We consider scenarios where instances and their classification/clustering results are distributed across different data sites and have sharing restrictions. As a special case, the privacy aware computation of the model when instances of the target data are distributed across different data sites, is also discussed. Experimental results show that the proposed approach can provide good classification accuracies while adhering to the data/model sharing constraints.

We present the discrete infinite logistic normal distribution (DILN), a Bayesian nonparametric prior for mixed membership models. DILN is a generalization of the hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) that models correlation structure between the weights of the atoms at the group level. We derive a representation of DILN as a normalized collection of gamma-distributed random variables, and study its statistical properties. We consider applications to topic modeling and derive a variational inference algorithm for approximate posterior inference. We study the empirical performance of the DILN topic model on four corpora, comparing performance with the HDP and the correlated topic model (CTM). To deal with large-scale data sets, we also develop an online inference algorithm for DILN and compare with online HDP and online LDA on the Nature magazine, which contains approximately 350,000 articles.