Graphical models trained using maximum likelihood are a common tool for probabilistic inference of marginal distributions. However, this approach suffers difficulties when either the inference process or the model is approximate. In this paper, the inference process is first defined to be the minimization of a convex function, inspired by free energy approximations. Learning is then done directly in terms of the performance of the inference process at univariate marginal prediction. The main novelty is that this is a direct minimization of emperical risk, where the risk measures the accuracy of predicted marginals.

We present an algorithm that identifies the reasoning patterns of agents in a game, by iteratively examining the graph structure of its Multi-Agent Influence Diagram (MAID) representation. If the decision of an agent participates in no reasoning patterns, then we can effectively ignore that decision for the purpose of calculating a Nash equilibrium for the game. In some cases, this can lead to exponential time savings in the process of equilibrium calculation. Moreover, our algorithm can be used to enumerate the reasoning patterns in a game, which can be useful for constructing more effective computerized agents interacting with humans.

The paper introduces AND/OR importance sampling for probabilistic graphical models. In contrast to importance sampling, AND/OR importance sampling caches samples in the AND/OR space and then extracts a new sample mean from the stored samples. We prove that AND/OR importance sampling may have lower variance than importance sampling; thereby providing a theoretical justification for preferring it over importance sampling. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that AND/OR importance sampling is far more accurate than importance sampling in many cases.

We present a probabilistic viewpoint to multiple kernel learning unifying well-known regularised risk approaches and recent advances in approximate Bayesian inference relaxations. The framework proposes a general objective function suitable for regression, robust regression and classification that is lower bound of the marginal likelihood and contains many regularised risk approaches as special cases. Furthermore, we derive an efficient and provably convergent optimisation algorithm.

The stochastic block model is a powerful tool for inferring community structure from network topology. However, it predicts a Poisson degree distribution within each community, while most real-world networks have a heavy-tailed degree distribution. The degree-corrected block model can accommodate arbitrary degree distributions within communities. But since it takes the vertex degrees as parameters rather than generating them, it cannot use them to help it classify the vertices, and its natural generalization to directed graphs cannot even use the orientations of the edges. In this paper, we present variants of the block model with the best of both worlds: they can use vertex degrees and edge orientations in the classification process, while tolerating heavy-tailed degree distributions within communities. We show that for some networks, including synthetic networks and networks of word adjacencies in English text, these new block models achieve a higher accuracy than either standard or degree-corrected block models.

We present a new algorithm for exactly solving decision making problems represented as influence diagrams. We do not require the usual assumptions of no forgetting and regularity; this allows us to solve problems with simultaneous decisions and limited information. The algorithm is empirically shown to outperform a state-of-the-art algorithm on randomly generated problems of up to 150 variables and 10^64 solutions. We show that these problems are NP-hard even if the underlying graph structure of the problem has low treewidth and the variables take on a bounded number of states, and that they admit no provably good approximation if variables can take on an arbitrary number of states.

The current paradigm in student modeling has continued to show the power of its simplifying assumption of knowledge as a binary and monotonically increasing construct, the value of which directly causes the outcome of student answers to questions. Recent efforts have focused on optimizing the prediction accuracy of responses to questions using student models. Incorporating individual student parameter interactions has been an interpretable and principled approach which has improved the performance of this task, as demonstrated by its application in the 2010 KDD Cup challenge on Educational Data. Performance prediction, however, can have limited practical utility. The greatest utility of such student models can be their ability to model the tutor and the attributes of the tutor which are causing learning. Harnessing the same simplifying assumption of learning used in student modeling, we can turn this model on its head to effectively tease out the tutor attributes causing learning and begin to optimize the tutor model to benefit the student model.

This work discusses the problem of sparse signal recovery when there is correlation among the values of non-zero entries. We examine intra-vector correlation in the context of the block sparse model and inter-vector correlation in the context of the multiple measurement vector model, as well as their combination. Algorithms based on the sparse Bayesian learning are presented and the benefits of incorporating correlation at the algorithm level are discussed. The impact of correlation on the limits of support recovery is also discussed highlighting the different impact intra-vector and inter-vector correlations have on such limits.

We study the problem of learning Bayesian network structures from data. Koivisto and Sood (2004) and Koivisto (2006) presented algorithms that can compute the exact marginal posterior probability of a subnetwork, e.g., a single edge, in O(n2n) time and the posterior probabilities for all n(n-1) potential edges in O(n2n) total time, assuming that the number of parents per node or the indegree is bounded by a constant. One main drawback of their algorithms is the requirement of a special structure prior that is non uniform and does not respect Markov equivalence. In this paper, we develop an algorithm that can compute the exact posterior probability of a subnetwork in O(3n) time and the posterior probabilities for all n(n-1) potential edges in O(n3n) total time. Our algorithm also assumes a bounded indegree but allows general structure priors. We demonstrate the applicability of the algorithm on several data sets with up to 20 variables.

Latent Dirichlet analysis, or topic modeling, is a flexible latent variable framework for modeling high-dimensional sparse count data. Various learning algorithms have been developed in recent years, including collapsed Gibbs sampling, variational inference, and maximum a posteriori estimation, and this variety motivates the need for careful empirical comparisons. In this paper, we highlight the close connections between these approaches. We find that the main differences are attributable to the amount of smoothing applied to the counts. When the hyperparameters are optimized, the differences in performance among the algorithms diminish significantly. The ability of these algorithms to achieve solutions of comparable accuracy gives us the freedom to select computationally efficient approaches. Using the insights gained from this comparative study, we show how accurate topic models can be learned in several seconds on text corpora with thousands of documents.