Markov Random Fields (MRFs) have proven very powerful both as density estimators and feature extractors for classification. However, their use is often limited by an inability to estimate the partition function $Z$. In this paper, we exploit the gradient descent training procedure of restricted Boltzmann machines (a type of MRF) to {\bf track} the log partition function during learning. Our method relies on two distinct sources of information: (1) estimating the change $\Delta Z$ incurred by each gradient update, (2) estimating the difference in $Z$ over a small set of tempered distributions using bridge sampling. The two sources of information are then combined using an inference procedure similar to Kalman filtering. Learning MRFs through Tempered Stochastic Maximum Likelihood, we can estimate $Z$ using no more temperatures than are required for learning. Comparing to both exact values and estimates using annealed importance sampling (AIS), we show on several datasets that our method is able to accurately track the log partition function. In contrast to AIS, our method provides this estimate at each time-step, at a computational cost similar to that required for training alone.

Renewal processes are generalizations of the Poisson process on the real line, whose intervals are drawn i.i.d. from some distribution. Modulated renewal processes allow these distributions to vary with time, allowing the introduction nonstationarity. In this work, we take a nonparametric Bayesian approach, modeling this nonstationarity with a Gaussian process. Our approach is based on the idea of uniformization, allowing us to draw exact samples from an otherwise intractable distribution. We develop a novel and efficient MCMC sampler for posterior inference. In our experiments, we test these on a number of synthetic and real datasets.

We show that the lambda-return target used in the TD(lambda) family of algorithms is the maximum likelihood estimator for a specific model of how the variance of an n-step return estimate increases with n. We introduce the gamma-return estimator, an alternative target based on a more accurate model of variance, which defines the TD_gamma family of complex-backup temporal difference learning algorithms. We derive TD_gamma, the gamma-return equivalent of the original TD(lambda) algorithm, which eliminates the lambda parameter but can only perform updates at the end of an episode and requires time and space proportional to the episode length. We then derive a second algorithm, TD_gamma(C), with a capacity parameter C. TD_gamma(C) requires C times more time and memory than TD(lambda) and is incremental and online. We show that TD_gamma outperforms TD(lambda) for any setting of lambda on 4 out of 5 benchmark domains, and that TD_gamma(C) performs as well as or better than TD_gamma for intermediate settings of C.

Variational methods have been previously explored as a tractable approximation to Bayesian inference for neural networks. However the approaches proposed so far have only been applicable to a few simple network architectures. This paper introduces an easy-to-implement stochastic variational method (or equivalently, minimum description length loss function) that can be applied to most neural networks. Along the way it revisits several common regularisers from a variational perspective. It also provides a simple pruning heuristic that can both drastically reduce the number of network weights and lead to improved generalisation. Experimental results are provided for a hierarchical multidimensional recurrent neural network applied to the TIMIT speech corpus.

The L_1 regularized Gaussian maximum likelihood estimator has been shown to have strong statistical guarantees in recovering a sparse inverse covariance matrix, or alternatively the underlying graph structure of a Gaussian Markov Random Field, from very limited samples. We propose a novel algorithm for solving the resulting optimization problem which is a regularized log-determinant program. In contrast to other state-of-the-art methods that largely use first order gradient information, our algorithm is based on Newton's method and employs a quadratic approximation, but with some modifications that leverage the structure of the sparse Gaussian MLE problem. We show that our method is superlinearly convergent, and also present experimental results using synthetic and real application data that demonstrate the considerable improvements in performance of our method when compared to other state-of-the-art methods.

In this paper we describe a maximum likelihood likelihood approach for dictionary learning in the multiplicative exponential noise model. This model is prevalent in audio signal processing where it underlies a generative composite model of the power spectrogram. Maximum joint likelihood estimation of the dictionary and expansion coefficients leads to a nonnegative matrix factorization problem where the Itakura-Saito divergence is used. The optimality of this approach is in question because the number of parameters (which include the expansion coefficients) grows with the number of observations. In this paper we describe a variational procedure for optimization of the marginal likelihood, i.e., the likelihood of the dictionary where the activation coefficients have been integrated out (given a specific prior). We compare the output of both maximum joint likelihood estimation (i.e., standard Itakura-Saito NMF) and maximum marginal likelihood estimation (MMLE) on real and synthetical datasets. The MMLE approach is shown to embed automatic model order selection, akin to automatic relevance determination.

A sizable literature has focused on the problem of estimating a low-dimensional feature space capturing a neuron's stimulus sensitivity. However, comparatively little work has addressed the problem of estimating the nonlinear function from feature space to a neuron's output spike rate. Here, we use a Gaussian process (GP) prior over the infinite-dimensional space of nonlinear functions to obtain Bayesian estimates of the "nonlinearity" in the linear-nonlinear-Poisson (LNP) encoding model. This offers flexibility, robustness, and computational tractability compared to traditional methods (e.g., parametric forms, histograms, cubic splines). Most importantly, we develop a framework for optimal experimental design based on uncertainty sampling. This involves adaptively selecting stimuli to characterize the nonlinearity with as little experimental data as possible, and relies on a method for rapidly updating hyperparameters using the Laplace approximation. We apply these methods to data from color-tuned neurons in macaque V1. We estimate nonlinearities in the 3D space of cone contrasts, which reveal that V1 combines cone inputs in a highly nonlinear manner. With simulated experiments, we show that optimal design substantially reduces the amount of data required to estimate this nonlinear combination rule.

Biased labelers are a systemic problem in crowdsourcing, and a comprehensive toolbox for handling their responses is still being developed. A typical crowdsourcing application can be divided into three steps: data collection, data curation, and learning. At present these steps are often treated separately. We present Bayesian Bias Mitigation for Crowdsourcing (BBMC), a Bayesian model to unify all three. Most data curation methods account for the {\it effects} of labeler bias by modeling all labels as coming from a single latent truth. Our model captures the {\it sources} of bias by describing labelers as influenced by shared random effects. This approach can account for more complex bias patterns that arise in ambiguous or hard labeling tasks and allows us to merge data curation and learning into a single computation. Active learning integrates data collection with learning, but is commonly considered infeasible with Gibbs sampling inference. We propose a general approximation strategy for Markov chains to efficiently quantify the effect of a perturbation on the stationary distribution and specialize this approach to active learning. Experiments show BBMC to outperform many common heuristics.

We propose a new sparse Bayesian model for multi-task regression and classification. The model is able to capture correlations between tasks, or more specifically a low-rank approximation of the covariance matrix, while being sparse in the features. We introduce a general family of group sparsity inducing priors based on matrix-variate Gaussian scale mixtures. We show the amount of sparsity can be learnt from the data by combining an approximate inference approach with type II maximum likelihood estimation of the hyperparameters. Empirical evaluations on data sets from biology and vision demonstrate the applicability of the model, where on both regression and classification tasks it achieves competitive predictive performance compared to previously proposed methods.

A nonparametric kernel-based method for realizing Bayes' rule is proposed, based on kernel representations of probabilities in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. The prior and conditional probabilities are expressed as empirical kernel mean and covariance operators, respectively, and the kernel mean of the posterior distribution is computed in the form of a weighted sample. The kernel Bayes' rule can be applied to a wide variety of Bayesian inference problems: we demonstrate Bayesian computation without likelihood, and filtering with a nonparametric state-space model. A consistency rate for the posterior estimate is established.