Inference in graphical models consists of repeatedly multiplying and summing out potentials. It is generally intractable because the derived potentials obtained in this way can be exponentially large. Approximate inference techniques such as belief propagation and variational methods combat this by simplifying the derived potentials, typically by dropping variables from them. We propose an alternate method for simplifying potentials: quantizing their values. Quantization causes different states of a potential to have the same value, and therefore introduces context-specific independencies that can be exploited to represent the potential more compactly. We use algebraic decision diagrams (ADDs) to do this efficiently. We apply quantization and ADD reduction to variable elimination and junction tree propagation, yielding a family of bounded approximate inference schemes. Our experimental tests show that our new schemes significantly outperform state-of-the-art approaches on many benchmark instances.

We propose a method called EDML for learning MAP parameters in binary Bayesian networks under incomplete data. The method assumes Beta priors and can be used to learn maximum likelihood parameters when the priors are uninformative. EDML exhibits interesting behaviors, especially when compared to EM. We introduce EDML, explain its origin, and study some of its properties both analytically and empirically.

Bayes-optimal behavior, while well-defined, is often difficult to achieve. Recent advances in the use of Monte-Carlo tree search (MCTS) have shown that it is possible to act near-optimally in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with very large or infinite state spaces. Bayes-optimal behavior in an unknown MDP is equivalent to optimal behavior in the known belief-space MDP, although the size of this belief-space MDP grows exponentially with the amount of history retained, and is potentially infinite. We show how an agent can use one particular MCTS algorithm, Forward Search Sparse Sampling (FSSS), in an efficient way to act nearly Bayes-optimally for all but a polynomial number of steps, assuming that FSSS can be used to act efficiently in any possible underlying MDP.

This paper presents an axiomatic framework for influence diagram computation, which allows reasoning with partially ordered values of utility. We show how an algorithm based on sequential variable elimination can be used to compute the set of maximal values of expected utility (up to an equivalence relation). Formalisms subsumed by the framework include decision making under uncertainty based on multi-objective utility, or on interval-valued utilities, as well as a more qualitative decision theory based on order-of-magnitude probabilities and utilities.

We consider the problem of finding the graph on which an epidemic cascade spreads, given only the times when each node gets infected. While this is a problem of importance in several contexts -- offline and online social networks, e-commerce, epidemiology, vulnerabilities in infrastructure networks -- there has been very little work, analytical or empirical, on finding the graph. Clearly, it is impossible to do so from just one cascade; our interest is in learning the graph from a small number of cascades. For the classic and popular "independent cascade" SIR epidemics, we analytically establish the number of cascades required by both the global maximum-likelihood (ML) estimator, and a natural greedy algorithm. Both results are based on a key observation: the global graph learning problem decouples into $n$ local problems -- one for each node. For a node of degree $d$, we show that its neighborhood can be reliably found once it has been infected $O(d^2 \log n)$ times (for ML on general graphs) or $O(d\log n)$ times (for greedy on trees). We also provide a corresponding information-theoretic lower bound of $\Omega(d\log n)$; thus our bounds are essentially tight. Furthermore, if we are given side-information in the form of a super-graph of the actual graph (as is often the case), then the number of cascade samples required -- in all cases -- becomes independent of the network size $n$. Finally, we show that for a very general SIR epidemic cascade model, the Markov graph of infection times is obtained via the moralization of the network graph.

Feature selection in reinforcement learning (RL), i.e. choosing basis functions such that useful approximations of the unkown value function can be obtained, is one of the main challenges in scaling RL to real-world applications. Here we consider the Gaussian process based framework GPTD for approximate policy evaluation, and propose feature selection through marginal likelihood optimization of the associated hyperparameters. Our approach has two appealing benefits: (1) given just sample transitions, we can solve the policy evaluation problem fully automatically (without looking at the learning task, and, in theory, independent of the dimensionality of the state space), and (2) model selection allows us to consider more sophisticated kernels, which in turn enable us to identify relevant subspaces and eliminate irrelevant state variables such that we can achieve substantial computational savings and improved prediction performance.

Data collection at a massive scale is becoming ubiquitous in a wide variety of settings, from vast offline databases to streaming real-time information. Learning algorithms deployed in such contexts must rely on single-pass inference, where the data history is never revisited. In streaming contexts, learning must also be temporally adaptive to remain up-to-date against unforeseen changes in the data generating mechanism. Although rapidly growing, the online Bayesian inference literature remains challenged by massive data and transient, evolving data streams. Non-parametric modelling techniques can prove particularly ill-suited, as the complexity of the model is allowed to increase with the sample size. In this work, we take steps to overcome these challenges by porting standard streaming techniques, like data discarding and downweighting, into a fully Bayesian framework via the use of informative priors and active learning heuristics. We showcase our methods by augmenting a modern non-parametric modelling framework, dynamic trees, and illustrate its performance on a number of practical examples. The end product is a powerful streaming regression and classification tool, whose performance compares favourably to the state-of-the-art.

For many optimization problems it is possible to define a distance metric between problem variables that correlates with the likelihood and strength of interactions between the variables. For example, one may define a metric so that the dependencies between variables that are closer to each other with respect to the metric are expected to be stronger than the dependencies between variables that are further apart. The purpose of this paper is to describe a method that combines such a problem-specific distance metric with information mined from probabilistic models obtained in previous runs of estimation of distribution algorithms with the goal of solving future problem instances of similar type with increased speed, accuracy and reliability. While the focus of the paper is on additively decomposable problems and the hierarchical Bayesian optimization algorithm, it should be straightforward to generalize the approach to other model-directed optimization techniques and other problem classes. Compared to other techniques for learning from experience put forward in the past, the proposed technique is both more practical and more broadly applicable.

The hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) has become an important Bayesian nonparametric model for grouped data, such as document collections. The HDP is used to construct a flexible mixed-membership model where the number of components is determined by the data. As for most Bayesian nonparametric models, exact posterior inference is intractable---practitioners use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or variational inference. Inspired by the split-merge MCMC algorithm for the Dirichlet process (DP) mixture model, we describe a novel split-merge MCMC sampling algorithm for posterior inference in the HDP. We study its properties on both synthetic data and text corpora. We find that split-merge MCMC for the HDP can provide significant improvements over traditional Gibbs sampling, and we give some understanding of the data properties that give rise to larger improvements.

This work is motivated by the problem of image mis-registration in remote sensing and we are interested in determining the resulting loss in the accuracy of pattern classification. A statistical formulation is given where we propose to use data contamination to model and understand the phenomenon of image mis-registration. This model is widely applicable to many other types of errors as well, for example, measurement errors and gross errors etc. The impact of data contamination on classification is studied under a statistical learning theoretical framework. A closed-form asymptotic bound is established for the resulting loss in classification accuracy, which is less than $\epsilon/(1-\epsilon)$ for data contamination of an amount of $\epsilon$. Our bound is sharper than similar bounds in the domain adaptation literature and, unlike such bounds, it applies to classifiers with an infinite Vapnik-Chervonekis (VC) dimension. Extensive simulations have been conducted on both synthetic and real datasets under various types of data contamination, including label flipping, feature swapping and the replacement of feature values with data generated from a random source such as a Gaussian or Cauchy distribution. Our simulation results show that the bound we derive is fairly tight.