This paper concerns learning and prediction with probabilistic models where the domain sizes of latent variables have no a priori upper-bound. Current approaches represent prior distributions over latent variables by stochastic processes such as the Dirichlet process, and rely on Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the model from data. We propose an alternative approach that searches over the domain size of latent variables, and allows arbitrary priors over the their domain sizes. We prove error bounds for expected probabilities, where the error bounds diminish with increasing search scope. The search algorithm can be truncated at any time . We empirically demonstrate the approach for topic modelling of text documents.

We study the marginal-MAP problem on graphical models, and present a novel approximation method based on direct approximation of the sum operation. A primary difficulty of marginal-MAP problems lies in the non-commutativity of the sum and max operations, so that even in highly structured models, marginalization may produce a densely connected graph over the variables to be maximized, resulting in an intractable potential function with exponential size. We propose a chain decomposition approach for summing over the marginalized variables, in which we produce a structured approximation to the MAP component of the problem consisting of only pairwise potentials. We show that this approach is equivalent to the maximization of a specific variational free energy, and it provides an upper bound of the optimal probability. Finally, experimental results demonstrate that our method performs favorably compared to previous methods.

Recent work in the field of probabilistic inference demonstrated the efficiency of weighted model counting (WMC) enginesfor exact inference in propositional and, very recently, first order models. To date, these methods have not been applied to decision making models, propositional or first order, such as influence diagrams, and Markov decision networks (MDN). In this paper we show how this technique can be applied to such models. First, we show how WMC can be used to solve (propositional) MDNs. Then, we show how this can be extended to handle a first-order model — the Markov Logic Decision Network (MLDN). WMC offers two central benefits: it is a very simple and very efficient technique. This is particularly true for the first-order case, where the WMC approach is simpler conceptually, and, in many cases, more effective computationally than the existing methods for solving MLDNs via first-order variable elimination, or via propositionalization. We demonstrate the above empirically.

Many real-world decision-theoretic planning problemsare naturally modeled using both continuous state andaction (CSA) spaces, yet little work has provided ex-act solutions for the case of continuous actions. Inthis work, we propose a symbolic dynamic program-ming (SDP) solution to obtain the optimal closed-formvalue function and policy for CSA-MDPs with mul-tivariate continuous state and actions, discrete noise,piecewise linear dynamics, and piecewise linear (or re-stricted piecewise quadratic) reward. Our key contribu-tion over previous SDP work is to show how the contin-uous action maximization step in the dynamic program-ming backup can be evaluated optimally and symboli-cally — a task which amounts to symbolic constrainedoptimization subject to unknown state parameters; wefurther integrate this technique to work with an efficientand compact data structure for SDP — the extendedalgebraic decision diagram (XADD). We demonstrateempirical results on a didactic nonlinear planning exam-ple and two domains from operations research to showthe first automated exact solution to these problems.

Problem-solving procedures have been typically aimed at achieving well-defined goals or satisfying straightforward preferences. However, learners and solvers may often generate rich multiattribute results with procedures guided by sets of controls that define different dimensions of quality. We explore methods that enable people to explore and express preferences about the operation of classification models in supervised multiclass learning. We leverage a leave-one-out confusion matrix that provides users with views and real-time controls of a model space. The approach allows people to consider in an interactive manner the global implications of local changes in decision boundaries. We focus on kernel classifiers and show the effectiveness of the methodology on a variety of tasks.

We introduce a new task-independent framework to model top-down overt visual attention based on graph-ical models for probabilistic inference and reasoning. We describe a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) that infers probability distributions over attended objects and spatial locations directly from observed data. Probabilistic inference in our model is performed over object-related functions which are fed from manual annotations of objects in video scenes or by state-of-the-art object detection models. Evaluating over ∼3 hours (appx. 315,000 eye fixations and 12,600 saccades) of observers playing 3 video games (time-scheduling, driving, and flight combat), we show that our approach is significantly more predictive of eye fixations compared to: 1) simpler classifier-based models also developed here that map a signature of a scene (multi-modal information from gist, bottom-up saliency, physical actions, and events) to eye positions, 2) 14 state-of-the-art bottom-up saliency models, and 3) brute-force algorithms such as mean eye position. Our results show that the proposed model is more effective in employing and reasoning over spatio-temporal visual data.

Network structure learning algorithms have aided network discovery in fields such as bioinformatics, neuroscience, ecology and social science. However, challenges remain in learning informative networks for related sets of tasks because the search space of Bayesian network structures is characterized by large basins of approximately equivalent solutions. Multitask algorithms select a set of networks that are near each other in the search space, rather than a score-equivalent set of networks chosen from independent regions of the space. This selection preference allows a domain expert to see only differences supported by the data. However, the usefulness of these algorithms for scientific datasets is limited because existing algorithms naively assume that all pairs of tasks are equally related. We introduce a framework that relaxes this assumption by incorporating domain knowledge about task-relatedness into the learning objective. Using our framework, we introduce the first multitask Bayesian network algorithm that leverages domain knowledge about the relatedness of tasks. We use our algorithm to explore the effect of task-relatedness on network discovery and show that our algorithm learns networks that are closer to ground truth than naive algorithms and that our algorithm discovers patterns that are interesting.

Probabilistic relational PCA (PRPCA) can learn a projection matrix to perform dimensionality reduction for relational data. However, the results learned by PRPCA lack interpretability because each principal component is a linear combination of all the original variables. In this paper, we propose a novel model, called sparse probabilistic relational projection (SPRP), to learn a sparse projection matrix for relational dimensionality reduction. The sparsity in SPRP is achieved by imposing on the projection matrix a sparsity-inducing prior such as the Laplace prior or Jeffreys prior. We propose an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to learn the parameters of SPRP. Compared with PRPCA, the sparsity in SPRP not only makes the results more interpretable but also makes the projection operation much more efficient without compromising its accuracy. All these are verified by experiments conducted on several real applications.

Common spatial patterns (CSP) is a popular feature extraction method for discriminating between positive andnegative classes in electroencephalography (EEG) data.Two probabilistic models for CSP were recently developed: probabilistic CSP (PCSP), which is trained by expectation maximization (EM), and variational BayesianCSP (VBCSP) which is learned by variational approx-imation. Parameter expansion methods use auxiliaryparameters to speed up the convergence of EM or thedeterministic approximation of the target distributionin variational inference. In this paper, we describethe development of parameter-expanded algorithms forPCSP and VBCSP, leading to PCSP-PX and VBCSP-PX, whose convergence speed-up and high performanceare emphasized. The convergence speed-up in PCSP-PX and VBCSP-PX is a direct consequence of parame-ter expansion methods. The contribution of this study is the performance improvement in the case of CSP,which is a novel development. Numerical experimentson the BCI competition datasets, III IV a and IV 2ademonstrate the high performance and fast convergenceof PCSP-PX and VBCSP-PX, as compared to PCSP andVBCSP.

In this paper, we address the problem of data description using a Bayesian framework. The goal of data description is to draw a boundary around objects of a certain class of interest to discriminate that class from the rest of the feature space. Data description is also known as one-class learning and has a wide range of applications. The proposed approach uses a Bayesian framework to precisely compute the class boundary and therefore can utilize domain information in form of prior knowledge in the framework. It can also operate in the kernel space and therefore recognize arbitrary boundary shapes. Moreover, the proposed method can utilize unlabeled data in order to improve accuracy of discrimination. We evaluate our method using various real-world datasets and compare it with other state of the art approaches of data description. Experiments show promising results and improved performance over other data description and one-class learning algorithms.