This paper examines the use of Bayesian Networks to tackle one of the tougher problems in requirements engineering, translating user requirements into system requirements. The approach taken is to model domain knowledge as Bayesian Network fragments that are glued together to form a complete view of the domain specific system requirements. User requirements are introduced as evidence and the propagation of belief is used to determine what are the appropriate system requirements as indicated by user requirements. This concept has been demonstrated in the development of a system specification and the results are presented here.

This paper describes a Bayesian method for combining an arbitrary mixture of observational and experimental data in order to learn causal Bayesian networks. Observational data are passively observed. Experimental data, such as that produced by randomized controlled trials, result from the experimenter manipulating one or more variables (typically randomly) and observing the states of other variables. The paper presents a Bayesian method for learning the causal structure and parameters of the underlying causal process that is generating the data, given that (1) the data contains a mixture of observational and experimental case records, and (2) the causal process is modeled as a causal Bayesian network. This learning method was applied using as input various mixtures of experimental and observational data that were generated from the ALARM causal Bayesian network. In these experiments, the absolute and relative quantities of experimental and observational data were varied systematically. For each of these training datasets, the learning method was applied to predict the causal structure and to estimate the causal parameters that exist among randomly selected pairs of nodes in ALARM that are not confounded. The paper reports how these structure predictions and parameter estimates compare with the true causal structures and parameters as given by the ALARM network.

Recent work on loglinear models in probabilistic constraint logic programming is applied to first-order probabilistic reasoning. Probabilities are defined directly on the proofs of atomic formulae, and by marginalisation on the atomic formulae themselves. We use Stochastic Logic Programs (SLPs) composed of labelled and unlabelled definite clauses to define the proof probabilities. We have a conservative extension of first-order reasoning, so that, for example, there is a one-one mapping between logical and random variables. We show how, in this framework, Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) can be used to induce the features of a loglinear model from data. We also compare the presented framework with other approaches to first-order probabilistic reasoning.

Recent improvement on Tarski's procedure for quantifier elimination in the first order theory of real numbers makes it feasible to solve small instances of the following problems completely automatically: 1. listing all equality and inequality constraints implied by a graphical model with hidden variables. 2. Comparing graphyical models with hidden variables (i.e., model equivalence, inclusion, and overlap). 3. Answering questions about the identification of a model or portion of a model, and about bounds on quantities derived from a model. 4. Determing whether a given set of independence assertions. We discuss the foundation of quantifier elimination and demonstrate its application to these problems.

Reinforcement learning systems are often concerned with balancing exploration of untested actions against exploitation of actions that are known to be good. The benefit of exploration can be estimated using the classical notion of Value of Information - the expected improvement in future decision quality arising from the information acquired by exploration. Estimating this quantity requires an assessment of the agent's uncertainty about its current value estimates for states. In this paper we investigate ways of representing and reasoning about this uncertainty in algorithms where the system attempts to learn a model of its environment. We explicitly represent uncertainty about the parameters of the model and build probability distributions over Q-values based on these. These distributions are used to compute a myopic approximation to the value of information for each action and hence to select the action that best balances exploration and exploitation.

As observations and student models become complex, educational assessments that exploit advances in technology and cognitive psychology can outstrip familiar testing models and analytic methods. Within the Portal conceptual framework for assessment design, Bayesian inference networks (BINs) record beliefs about students' knowledge and skills, in light of what they say and do. Joining evidence model BIN fragments- which contain observable variables and pointers to student model variables - to the student model allows one to update belief about knowledge and skills as observations arrive. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques can estimate the required conditional probabilities from empirical data, supplemented by expert judgment or substantive theory. Details for the special cases of item response theory (IRT) and multivariate latent class modeling are given, with a numerical example of the latter.

It is well-known that the notion of (strong) conditional independence (CI) is too restrictive to capture independencies that only hold in certain contexts. This kind of contextual independency, called context-strong independence (CSI), can be used to facilitate the acquisition, representation, and inference of probabilistic knowledge. In this paper, we suggest the use of contextual weak independence (CWI) in Bayesian networks. It should be emphasized that the notion of CWI is a more general form of contextual independence than CSI. Furthermore, if the contextual strong independence holds for all contexts, then the notion of CSI becomes strong CI. On the other hand, if the weak contextual independence holds for all contexts, then the notion of CWI becomes weak independence (WI) nwhich is a more general noncontextual independency than strong CI. More importantly, complete axiomatizations are studied for both the class of WI and the class of CI and WI together. Finally, the interesting property of WI being a necessary and sufficient condition for ensuring consistency in granular probabilistic networks is shown.

There is available an ever-increasing variety of procedures for managing uncertainty. These methods are discussed in the literature of artificial intelligence, as well as in the literature of philosophy of science. Heretofore these methods have been evaluated by intuition, discussion, and the general philosophical method of argument and counterexample. Almost any method of uncertainty management will have the property that in the long run it will deliver numbers approaching the relative frequency of the kinds of events at issue. To find a measure that will provide a meaningful evaluation of these treatments of uncertainty, we must look, not at the long run, but at the short or intermediate run. Our project attempts to develop such a measure in terms of short or intermediate length performance. We represent the effects of practical choices by the outcomes of bets offered to agents characterized by two uncertainty management approaches: the subjective Bayesian approach and the Classical confidence interval approach. Experimental evaluation suggests that the confidence interval approach can outperform the subjective approach in the relatively short run.

Bayesian Networks (BN) provide robust probabilistic methods of reasoning under uncertainty, but despite their formal grounds are strictly based on the notion of conditional dependence, not much attention has been paid so far to their use in dependability analysis. The aim of this paper is to propose BN as a suitable tool for dependability analysis, by challenging the formalism with basic issues arising in dependability tasks. We will discuss how both modeling and analysis issues can be naturally dealt with by BN. Moreover, we will show how some limitations intrinsic to combinatorial dependability methods such as Fault Trees can be overcome using BN. This will be pursued through the study of a real-world example concerning the reliability analysis of a redundant digital Programmable Logic Controller (PLC) with majority voting 2:3

In building Bayesian belief networks, the elicitation of all probabilities required can be a major obstacle. We learned the extent of this often-cited observation in the construction of the probabilistic part of a complex influence diagram in the field of cancer treatment. Based upon our negative experiences with existing methods, we designed a new method for probability elicitation from domain experts. The method combines various ideas, among which are the ideas of transcribing probabilities and of using a scale with both numerical and verbal anchors for marking assessments. In the construction of the probabilistic part of our influence diagram, the method proved to allow for the elicitation of many probabilities in little time.