This paper examines the interdependence generated between two parent nodes with a common instantiated child node, such as two hypotheses sharing common evidence. The relation so generated has been termed "intercausal." It is shown by construction that inter-causal independence is possible for binary distributions at one state of evidence. For such "CICI" distributions, the two measures of inter-causal effect, "multiplicative synergy" and "additive synergy" are equal. The well known "noisy-or" model is an example of such a distribution. This introduces novel semantics for the noisy-or, as a model of the degree of conflict among competing hypotheses of a common observation.

This paper proposes a new method for solving Bayesian decision problems. The method consists of representing a Bayesian decision problem as a valuation-based system and applying a fusion algorithm for solving it. The fusion algorithm is a hybrid of local computational methods for computation of marginals of joint probability distributions and the local computational methods for discrete optimization problems.

In this paper, we consider several types of information and methods of combination associated with incomplete probabilistic systems. We discriminate between 'a priori' and evidential information. The former one is a description of the whole population, the latest is a restriction based on observations for a particular case. Then, we propose different combination methods for each one of them. We also consider conditioning as the heterogeneous combination of 'a priori' and evidential information. The evidential information is represented as a convex set of likelihood functions. These will have an associated possibility distribution with behavior according to classical Possibility Theory.

This paper presents a simple framework for Horn clause abduction, with probabilities associated with hypotheses. It is shown how this representation can represent any probabilistic knowledge representable in a Bayesian belief network. The main contributions are in finding a relationship between logical and probabilistic notions of evidential reasoning. This can be used as a basis for a new way to implement Bayesian Networks that allows for approximations to the value of the posterior probabilities, and also points to a way that Bayesian networks can be extended beyond a propositional language.

Since exact probabilistic inference is intractable in general for large multiply connected belief nets, approximate methods are required. A promising approach is to use heuristic search among hypotheses (instantiations of the network) to find the most probable ones, as in the TopN algorithm. Search is based on the relative probabilities of hypotheses which are efficient to compute. Given upper and lower bounds on the relative probability of partial hypotheses, it is possible to obtain bounds on the absolute probabilities of hypotheses. Best-first search aimed at reducing the maximum error progressively narrows the bounds as more hypotheses are examined. Here, qualitative probabilistic analysis is employed to obtain bounds on the relative probability of partial hypotheses for the BN20 class of networks networks and a generalization replacing the noisy OR assumption by negative synergy. The approach is illustrated by application to a very large belief network, QMR-BN, which is a reformulation of the Internist-1 system for diagnosis in internal medicine.

We present a generalization of the local expression language used in the Symbolic Probabilistic Inference (SPI) approach to inference in belief nets [1l, [8]. The local expression language in SPI is the language in which the dependence of a node on its antecedents is described. The original language represented the dependence as a single monolithic conditional probability distribution. The extended language provides a set of operators (*, +, and -) which can be used to specify methods for combining partial conditional distributions. As one instance of the utility of this extension, we show how this extended language can be used to capture the semantics, representational advantages, and inferential complexity advantages of the "noisy or" relationship.

In general, the best explanation for a given observation makes no promises on how good it is with respect to other alternative explanations. A major deficiency of message-passing schemes for belief revision in Bayesian networks is their inability to generate alternatives beyond the second best. In this paper, we present a general approach based on linear constraint systems that naturally generates alternative explanations in an orderly and highly efficient manner. This approach is then applied to cost-based abduction problems as well as belief revision in Bayesian net works.

Robots rely on sensors to provide them with information about their surroundings. However, high-quality sensors can be extremely expensive and cost-prohibitive. Thus many robotic systems must make due with lower-quality sensors. Here we demonstrate via a case study how modeling a sensor can improve its efficacy when employed within a Bayesian inferential framework. As a test bed we employ a robotic arm that is designed to autonomously take its own measurements using an inexpensive LEGO light sensor to estimate the position and radius of a white circle on a black field. The light sensor integrates the light arriving from a spatially distributed region within its field of view weighted by its Spatial Sensitivity Function (SSF). We demonstrate that by incorporating an accurate model of the light sensor SSF into the likelihood function of a Bayesian inference engine, an autonomous system can make improved inferences about its surroundings. The method presented here is data-based, fairly general, and made with plug-and play in mind so that it could be implemented in similar problems.

Recently, it has been shown how sampling actions from the predictive distribution over the optimal action-sometimes called Thompson sampling-can be applied to solve sequential adaptive control problems, when the optimal policy is known for each possible environment. The predictive distribution can then be constructed by a Bayesian superposition of the optimal policies weighted by their posterior probability that is updated by Bayesian inference and causal calculus. Here we discuss three important features of this approach. First, we discuss in how far such Thompson sampling can be regarded as a natural consequence of the Bayesian modeling of policy uncertainty. Second, we show how Thompson sampling can be used to study interactions between multiple adaptive agents, thus, opening up an avenue of game-theoretic analysis. Third, we show how Thompson sampling can be applied to infer causal relationships when interacting with an environment in a sequential fashion. In summary, our results suggest that Thompson sampling might not merely be a useful heuristic, but a principled method to address problems of adaptive sequential decision-making and causal inference.

We consider the problem of sparse estimation in a factor analysis model. A traditional estimation procedure in use is the following two-step approach: the model is estimated by maximum likelihood method and then a rotation technique is utilized to find sparse factor loadings. However, the maximum likelihood estimates cannot be obtained when the number of variables is much larger than the number of observations. Furthermore, even if the maximum likelihood estimates are available, the rotation technique does not often produce a sufficiently sparse solution. In order to handle these problems, this paper introduces a penalized likelihood procedure that imposes a nonconvex penalty on the factor loadings. We show that the penalized likelihood procedure can be viewed as a generalization of the traditional two-step approach, and the proposed methodology can produce sparser solutions than the rotation technique. A new algorithm via the EM algorithm along with coordinate descent is introduced to compute the entire solution path, which permits the application to a wide variety of convex and nonconvex penalties. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to investigate the performance of our modeling strategy. A real data example is also given to illustrate our procedure.