To determine the value of perfect information in an influence diagram, one needs first to modify the diagram to reflect the change in information availability, and then to compute the optimal expected values of both the original diagram and the modified diagram. The value of perfect information is the difference between the two optimal expected values. This paper is about how to speed up the computation of the optimal expected value of the modified diagram by making use of the intermediate computation results obtained when computing the optimal expected value of the original diagram.

In this paper, we present a Bayesian channel estimation algorithm for multicarrier receivers based on pilot symbol observations. The inherent sparse nature of wireless multipath channels is exploited by modeling the prior distribution of multipath components' gains with a hierarchical representation of the Bessel K probability density function; a highly efficient, fast iterative Bayesian inference method is then applied to the proposed model. The resulting estimator outperforms other state-of-the-art Bayesian and non-Bayesian estimators, either by yielding lower mean squared estimation error or by attaining the same accuracy with improved convergence rate, as shown in our numerical evaluation.

In a probability-based reasoning system, Bayes' theorem and its variations are often used to revise the system's beliefs. However, if the explicit conditions and the implicit conditions of probability assignments are properly distinguished, it follows that Bayes' theorem is not a generally applicable revision rule. Upon properly distinguishing belief revision from belief updating, we see that Jeffrey's rule and its variations are not revision rules, either. Without these distinctions, the limitation of the Bayesian approach is often ignored or underestimated. Revision, in its general form, cannot be done in the Bayesian approach, because a probability distribution function alone does not contain the information needed by the operation.

We present a semantics for adding uncertainty to conditional logics for default reasoning and belief revision. We are able to treat conditional sentences as statements of conditional probability, and express rules for revision such as "If A were believed, then B would be believed to degree p." This method of revision extends conditionalization by allowing meaningful revision by sentences whose probability is zero. This is achieved through the use of counterfactual probabilities. Thus, our system accounts for the best properties of qualitative methods of update (in particular, the AGM theory of revision) and probabilistic methods. We also show how our system can be viewed as a unification of probability theory and possibility theory, highlighting their orthogonality and providing a means for expressing the probability of a possibility. We also demonstrate the connection to Lewis's method of imaging.

A major reason behind the success of probability calculus is that it possesses anum ber of valuable tools, which are based on the notion of probabilistic independence. In this paper, I identify a notion of logical independence that makes some of these tools available to a class of propositional databases, called argument databases. Specifically, I suggest a graphical representation of argument databases, called argument networks, which resemble Bayesian networks. I also suggest an algorithm for reasoning with argument networks, which resembles a basic algorithm for reasoning with Bayesian networks. Finally, I show that argument networks have several applications: Nonmonotonic reasoning, truth maintenance, and diagnosis.

The potential influence diagram is a generalization of the standard "conditional" influence diagram, a directed network representation for probabilistic inference and decision analysis [Ndilikilikesha, 1991). It allows efficient inference calculations corresponding exactly to those on undirected graphs. In this paper, we explore the relationship between potential and conditional influence diagrams and provide insight into the properties of the potential influence diagram. In particular, we show how to convert a potential influence diagram into a conditional influence diagram, and how to view the potential influence diagram operation-- in terms of the conditional influence diagram.

Bayesian belief networks can be used to represent and to reason about complex systems with uncertain, incomplete and conflicting information. Belief networks are graphs encoding and quantifying probabilistic dependence and conditional independence among variables. One type of reasoning of interest in diagnosis is called abductive inference (determination of the global most probable system description given the values of any partial subset of variables). In some cases, abductive inference can be performed with exact algorithms using distributed network computations but it is an NP-hard problem and complexity increases drastically with the presence of undirected cycles, number of discrete states per variable, and number of variables in the network. This paper describes an approximate method based on genetic algorithms to perform abductive inference in large, multiply connected networks for which complexity is a concern when using most exact methods and for which systematic search methods are not feasible. The theoretical adequacy of the method is discussed and preliminary experimental results are presented.

This paper discusses how conflicts (as used by the consistency-based diagnosis community) can be adapted to be used in a search-based algorithm for computing prior and posterior probabilities in discrete Bayesian Networks. This is an "anytime" algorithm, that at any stage can estimate the probabilities and give an error bound. Whereas the most popular Bayesian net algorithms exploit the structure of the network for efficiency, we exploit probability distributions for efficiency; this algorithm is most suited to the case with extreme probabilities. This paper presents a solution to the inefficiencies found in naive algorithms, and shows how the tools of the consistency-based diagnosis community (namely conflicts) can be used effectively to improve the efficiency. Empirical results with networks having tens of thousands of nodes are presented.

Two algorithms are presented for "compiling" influence diagrams into a set of simple decision rules. These decision rules define simple-to-execute, complete, consistent, and near-optimal decision procedures. These compilation algorithms can be used to derive decision procedures for human teams solving time constrained decision problems.

Intercausal reasoning is a common inference pattern involving probabilistic dependence of causes of an observed common effect. The sign of this dependence is captured by a qualitative property called product synergy. The current definition of product synergy is insufficient for intercausal reasoning where there are additional uninstantiated causes of the common effect. We propose a new definition of product synergy and prove its adequacy for intercausal reasoning with direct and indirect evidence for the common effect. The new definition is based on a new property matrix half positive semi-definiteness, a weakened form of matrix positive semi-definiteness.