Unsupervised estimation of latent variable models is a fundamental problem central to numerous applications of machine learning and statistics. This work presents a principled approach for estimating broad classes of such models, including probabilistic topic models and latent linear Bayesian networks, using only second-order observed moments. The sufficient conditions for identifiability of these models are primarily based on weak expansion constraints on the topic-word matrix, for topic models, and on the directed acyclic graph, for Bayesian networks. Because no assumptions are made on the distribution among the latent variables, the approach can handle arbitrary correlations among the topics or latent factors. In addition, a tractable learning method via $\ell_1$ optimization is proposed and studied in numerical experiments.

We generalize the stochastic block model to the important case in which edges are annotated with weights drawn from an exponential family distribution. This generalization introduces several technical difficulties for model estimation, which we solve using a Bayesian approach. We introduce a variational algorithm that efficiently approximates the model's posterior distribution for dense graphs. In specific numerical experiments on edge-weighted networks, this weighted stochastic block model outperforms the common approach of first applying a single threshold to all weights and then applying the classic stochastic block model, which can obscure latent block structure in networks. This model will enable the recovery of latent structure in a broader range of network data than was previously possible.

Multi-task learning leverages shared information among data sets to improve the learning performance of individual tasks. The paper applies this framework for data where each task is a phase-shifted periodic time series. In particular, we develop a novel Bayesian nonparametric model capturing a mixture of Gaussian processes where each task is a sum of a group-specific function and a component capturing individual variation, in addition to each task being phase shifted. We develop an efficient \textsc{em} algorithm to learn the parameters of the model. As a special case we obtain the Gaussian mixture model and \textsc{em} algorithm for phased-shifted periodic time series. Furthermore, we extend the proposed model by using a Dirichlet Process prior and thereby leading to an infinite mixture model that is capable of doing automatic model selection. A Variational Bayesian approach is developed for inference in this model. Experiments in regression, classification and class discovery demonstrate the performance of the proposed models using both synthetic data and real-world time series data from astrophysics. Our methods are particularly useful when the time series are sparsely and non-synchronously sampled.

Situations where there is insufficient information to learn from often arise, and the process to recollect data can be expensive or in some cases take too long resulting in outdated models. Transfer learning strategies have proven to be a powerful technique to learn models from several sources when a single source does not provide enough information. In this work we present a methodology to learn a Temporal Nodes Bayesian Network by transferring knowledge from several different but related domains. Experiments based on a reference network show promising results, supporting our claim that transfer learning is a viable strategy to learn these models when scarce data is available.

We compare three approaches to learning numerical parameters of Bayesian networks from continuous data streams: (1) the EM algorithm applied to all data, (2) the EM algorithm applied to data increments, and (3) the online EM algorithm. Our results show that learning from all data at each step, whenever feasible, leads to the highest parameter accuracy and model classification accuracy. When facing computational limitations, incremental learning approaches are a reasonable alternative. Of these, online EM is reasonably fast, and similar to the incremental EM algorithm in terms of accuracy. For small data sets, incremental EM seems to lead to better accuracy. When the data size gets large, online EM tends to be more accurate.

We study online learning under logarithmic loss with regular parametric models. Hedayati and Bartlett (2012b) showed that a Bayesian prediction strategy with Jeffreys prior and sequential normalized maximum likelihood (SNML) coincide and are optimal if and only if the latter is exchangeable, and if and only if the optimal strategy can be calculated without knowing the time horizon in advance. They put forward the question what families have exchangeable SNML strategies. This paper fully answers this open problem for one-dimensional exponential families. The exchangeability can happen only for three classes of natural exponential family distributions, namely the Gaussian, Gamma, and the Tweedie exponential family of order 3/2. Keywords: SNML Exchangeability, Exponential Family, Online Learning, Logarithmic Loss, Bayesian Strategy, Jeffreys Prior, Fisher Information1

A mean field variational Bayes approach to support vector machines (SVMs) using the latent variable representation on Polson & Scott (2012) is presented. This representation allows circumvention of many of the shortcomings associated with classical SVMs including automatic penalty parameter selection, the ability to handle dependent samples, missing data and variable selection. We demonstrate on simulated and real datasets that our approach is easily extendable to non-standard situations and outperforms the classical SVM approach whilst remaining computationally efficient.

Blind deconvolution involves the estimation of a sharp signal or image given only a blurry observation. Because this problem is fundamentally ill-posed, strong priors on both the sharp image and blur kernel are required to regularize the solution space. While this naturally leads to a standard MAP estimation framework, performance is compromised by unknown trade-off parameter settings, optimization heuristics, and convergence issues stemming from non-convexity and/or poor prior selections. To mitigate some of these problems, a number of authors have recently proposed substituting a variational Bayesian (VB) strategy that marginalizes over the high-dimensional image space leading to better estimates of the blur kernel. However, the underlying cost function now involves both integrals with no closed-form solution and complex, function-valued arguments, thus losing the transparency of MAP. Beyond standard Bayesian-inspired intuitions, it thus remains unclear by exactly what mechanism these methods are able to operate, rendering understanding, improvements and extensions more difficult. To elucidate these issues, we demonstrate that the VB methodology can be recast as an unconventional MAP problem with a very particular penalty/prior that couples the image, blur kernel, and noise level in a principled way. This unique penalty has a number of useful characteristics pertaining to relative concavity, local minima avoidance, and scale-invariance that allow us to rigorously explain the success of VB including its existing implementational heuristics and approximations. It also provides strict criteria for choosing the optimal image prior that, perhaps counter-intuitively, need not reflect the statistics of natural scenes. In so doing we challenge the prevailing notion of why VB is successful for blind deconvolution while providing a transparent platform for introducing enhancements.

We extend kernelized matrix factorization with a fully Bayesian treatment and with an ability to work with multiple side information sources expressed as different kernels. Kernel functions have been introduced to matrix factorization to integrate side information about the rows and columns (e.g., objects and users in recommender systems), which is necessary for making out-of-matrix (i.e., cold start) predictions. We discuss specifically bipartite graph inference, where the output matrix is binary, but extensions to more general matrices are straightforward. We extend the state of the art in two key aspects: (i) A fully conjugate probabilistic formulation of the kernelized matrix factorization problem enables an efficient variational approximation, whereas fully Bayesian treatments are not computationally feasible in the earlier approaches. (ii) Multiple side information sources are included, treated as different kernels in multiple kernel learning that additionally reveals which side information sources are informative. Our method outperforms alternatives in predicting drug-protein interactions on two data sets. We then show that our framework can also be used for solving multilabel learning problems by considering samples and labels as the two domains where matrix factorization operates on. Our algorithm obtains the lowest Hamming loss values on 10 out of 14 multilabel classification data sets compared to five state-of-the-art multilabel learning algorithms.

Probabilistic k-nearest neighbour (PKNN) classification has been introduced to improve the performance of original k-nearest neighbour (KNN) classification algorithm by explicitly modelling uncertainty in the classification of each feature vector. However, an issue common to both KNN and PKNN is to select the optimal number of neighbours, $k$. The contribution of this paper is to incorporate the uncertainty in $k$ into the decision making, and in so doing use Bayesian model averaging to provide improved classification. Indeed the problem of assessing the uncertainty in $k$ can be viewed as one of statistical model selection which is one of the most important technical issues in the statistics and machine learning domain. In this paper, a new functional approximation algorithm is proposed to reconstruct the density of the model (order) without relying on time consuming Monte Carlo simulations. In addition, this algorithm avoids cross validation by adopting Bayesian framework. The performance of this algorithm yielded very good performance on several real experimental datasets.