Supervised topic models with a logistic likelihood have two issues that potentially limit their practical use: 1) response variables are usually over-weighted by document word counts; and 2) existing variational inference methods make strict mean-field assumptions. We address these issues by: 1) introducing a regularization constant to better balance the two parts based on an optimization formulation of Bayesian inference; and 2) developing a simple Gibbs sampling algorithm by introducing auxiliary Polya-Gamma variables and collapsing out Dirichlet variables. Our augment-and-collapse sampling algorithm has analytical forms of each conditional distribution without making any restricting assumptions and can be easily parallelized. Empirical results demonstrate significant improvements on prediction performance and time efficiency.

The problem of replicating the flexibility of human common-sense reasoning has captured the imagination of computer scientists since the early days of Alan Turing's foundational work on computation and the philosophy of artificial intelligence. In the intervening years, the idea of cognition as computation has emerged as a fundamental tenet of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and cognitive science. But what kind of computation is cognition? We describe a computational formalism centered around a probabilistic Turing machine called QUERY, which captures the operation of probabilistic conditioning via conditional simulation. Through several examples and analyses, we demonstrate how the QUERY abstraction can be used to cast common-sense reasoning as probabilistic inference in a statistical model of our observations and the uncertain structure of the world that generated that experience. This formulation is a recent synthesis of several research programs in AI and cognitive science, but it also represents a surprising convergence of several of Turing's pioneering insights in AI, the foundations of computation, and statistics.

Logistic Gaussian process (LGP) priors provide a flexible alternative for modelling unknown densities. The smoothness properties of the density estimates can be controlled through the prior covariance structure of the LGP, but the challenge is the analytically intractable inference. In this paper, we present approximate Bayesian inference for LGP density estimation in a grid using Laplace's method to integrate over the non-Gaussian posterior distribution of latent function values and to determine the covariance function parameters with type-II maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation. We demonstrate that Laplace's method with MAP is sufficiently fast for practical interactive visualisation of 1D and 2D densities. Our experiments with simulated and real 1D data sets show that the estimation accuracy is close to a Markov chain Monte Carlo approximation and state-of-the-art hierarchical infinite Gaussian mixture models. We also construct a reduced-rank approximation to speed up the computations for dense 2D grids, and demonstrate density regression with the proposed Laplace approach.

This paper considers the problem of networks reconstruction from heterogeneous data using a Gaussian Graphical Mixture Model (GGMM). It is well known that parameter estimation in this context is challenging due to large numbers of variables coupled with the degeneracy of the likelihood. We propose as a solution a penalized maximum likelihood technique by imposing an $l_{1}$ penalty on the precision matrix. Our approach shrinks the parameters thereby resulting in better identifiability and variable selection. We use the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm which involves the graphical LASSO to estimate the mixing coefficients and the precision matrices. We show that under certain regularity conditions the Penalized Maximum Likelihood (PML) estimates are consistent. We demonstrate the performance of the PML estimator through simulations and we show the utility of our method for high dimensional data analysis in a genomic application.

In this paper we propose a flexible and efficient framework for handling multi-armed bandits, combining sequential Monte Carlo algorithms with hierarchical Bayesian modeling techniques. The framework naturally encompasses restless bandits, contextual bandits, and other bandit variants under a single inferential model. Despite the model's generality, we propose efficient Monte Carlo algorithms to make inference scalable, based on recent developments in sequential Monte Carlo methods. Through two simulation studies, the framework is shown to outperform other empirical methods, while also naturally scaling to more complex problems for which existing approaches can not cope. Additionally, we successfully apply our framework to online video-based advertising recommendation, and show its increased efficacy as compared to current state of the art bandit algorithms.

We introduce a novel class of labeled directed acyclic graph (LDAG) models for finite sets of discrete variables. LDAGs generalize earlier proposals for allowing local structures in the conditional probability distribution of a node, such that unrestricted label sets determine which edges can be deleted from the underlying directed acyclic graph (DAG) for a given context. Several properties of these models are derived, including a generalization of the concept of Markov equivalence classes. Efficient Bayesian learning of LDAGs is enabled by introducing an LDAG-based factorization of the Dirichlet prior for the model parameters, such that the marginal likelihood can be calculated analytically. In addition, we develop a novel prior distribution for the model structures that can appropriately penalize a model for its labeling complexity. A non-reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm combined with a greedy hill climbing approach is used for illustrating the useful properties of LDAG models for both real and synthetic data sets.

In this letter, we consider two sets of observations defined as subspace signals embedded in noise and we wish to analyze the distance between these two subspaces. The latter entails evaluating the angles between the subspaces, an issue reminiscent of the well-known Procrustes problem. A Bayesian approach is investigated where the subspaces of interest are considered as random with a joint prior distribution (namely a Bingham distribution), which allows the closeness of the two subspaces to be adjusted. Within this framework, the minimum mean-square distance estimator of both subspaces is formulated and implemented via a Gibbs sampler. A simpler scheme based on alternative maximum a posteriori estimation is also presented. The new schemes are shown to provide more accurate estimates of the angles between the subspaces, compared to singular value decomposition based independent estimation of the two subspaces.

We consider learning on graphs, guided by kernels that encode similarity between vertices. Our focus is on random walk kernels, the analogues of squared exponential kernels in Euclidean spaces. We show that on large, locally treelike, graphs these have some counter-intuitive properties, specifically in the limit of large kernel lengthscales. We consider using these kernels as covariance matrices of e.g.\ Gaussian processes (GPs). In this situation one typically scales the prior globally to normalise the average of the prior variance across vertices. We demonstrate that, in contrast to the Euclidean case, this generically leads to significant variation in the prior variance across vertices, which is undesirable from the probabilistic modelling point of view. We suggest the random walk kernel should be normalised locally, so that each vertex has the same prior variance, and analyse the consequences of this by studying learning curves for Gaussian process regression. Numerical calculations as well as novel theoretical predictions for the learning curves using belief propagation make it clear that one obtains distinctly different probabilistic models depending on the choice of normalisation. Our method for predicting the learning curves using belief propagation is significantly more accurate than previous approximations and should become exact in the limit of large random graphs.

The performance of sparse signal recovery from noise corrupted, underdetermined measurements can be improved if both sparsity and correlation structure of signals are exploited. One typical correlation structure is the intra-block correlation in block sparse signals. To exploit this structure, a framework, called block sparse Bayesian learning (BSBL), has been proposed recently. Algorithms derived from this framework showed superior performance but they are not very fast, which limits their applications. This work derives an efficient algorithm from this framework, using a marginalized likelihood maximization method. Compared to existing BSBL algorithms, it has close recovery performance but is much faster. Therefore, it is more suitable for large scale datasets and applications requiring real-time implementation.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are versatile tools that have been successfully employed to solve nonlinear estimation problems in machine learning, but that are rarely used in signal processing. In this tutorial, we present GPs for regression as a natural nonlinear extension to optimal Wiener filtering. After establishing their basic formulation, we discuss several important aspects and extensions, including recursive and adaptive algorithms for dealing with non-stationarity, low-complexity solutions, non-Gaussian noise models and classification scenarios. Furthermore, we provide a selection of relevant applications to wireless digital communications.