Indeed, to the best of our knowledge, we lack forgotten over time (Wu and Humberman 2007). For example, a probabilistic framework to model and predict the popularity videos on YouTube or stories on Digg gain their popularity dynamics of individual items. The reason behind this is by striving for views or votes (Szabo and Huberman partly illustrated in Figure 1, suggesting that the dynamical 2010); papers increase their visibility by competing for citations processes governing individual items appear too noisy to be from new papers (Ren et al. 2010; Wang, Song, and amenable to quantification. Barabási 2013); tweets or Hashtags in Twitter become more In this paper, we model the stochastic popularity dynamics popular as being retweeted (Hong, Dan, and Davison 2011) using reinforced Poisson processes, capturing simultaneously and so do webpages as being attached by incoming hyperlinks three key ingredients: fitness of an item, characterizing (Ratkiewicz et al. 2010). An ability to predict the popularity its inherent competitiveness against other items; a general of individual items within a dynamically evolving system temporal relaxation function, corresponding to the aging not only probes our understanding of complex systems, in the ability to attract new attentions; and a reinforcement but also has important implications in a wide range of domains, mechanism, documenting the well-known "rich-get-richer" from marketing and traffic control to policy making phenomenon. The benefit of the proposed model is threefold: and risk management. Despite recent advances of empirical (1) It models the arrival process of individual attentions methods, we lack a general modeling framework to predict directly in contrast to relying on aggregated popularity the popularity of individual items within a complex evolving time series; (2) As a generative probabilistic model, it can be system.

Relation inference between concepts in knowledge base has been extensively studied in recent years. Previous methods mostly apply the relations in the knowledge base, without fully utilizing the contents, i.e., the attributes of concepts in knowledge base. In this paper, we propose a content-structural relation inference method (CSRI) which integrates the content and structural information between concepts for relation inference. Experiments on data sets show that CSRI obtains 15% improvement compared with the state-of-the-art methods.

Conformant probabilistic planning (CPP) differs from conformant planning (CP) by two key elements: the initial belief state is probabilistic,and the conformant plan must achieve the goal with probability $\geq\theta$, for some $0<\theta\leq 1$. In earlier work we observed that one can reduce CPP to CP by finding a set of initial states whose probability $\geq\theta$, for whicha conformant plan exists. In previous solvers we used the underlying planner to select this set of states and to plan for them simultaneously. Here we suggest an alternative approach: start with relevance analysis to determine a promising set of initial states on which to focus. Then, call an off-the-shelf conformant planner to solve the resulting problem. This approach has a number of advantages. First, instead of depending on the heuristic function to select the set of initial states,we can introduce specific, efficient relevance reasoning techniques. Second, we can benefit from optimizations used by conformant planners that are unsound when applied to the original CPP. Finally, we are free to use any existing (or new) CP solver. Consequently, the new planner dominates previous solvers on almost all domains and scales to instances that were not solved before.

Infinite SVM (iSVM) is a Dirichlet process (DP) mixture of large-margin classifiers. Though flexible in learning nonlinear classifiers and discovering latent clustering structures, iSVM has a difficult inference task and existing methods could hinder its applicability to large-scale problems. This paper presents a small-variance asymptotic analysis to derive a simple and efficient algorithm, which monotonically optimizes a max-margin DP-means (M2DPM) problem, an extension of DP-means for both predictive learning and descriptive clustering. Our analysis is built on Gibbs infinite SVMs, an alternative DP mixture of large-margin machines, which admits a partially collapsed Gibbs sampler without truncation by exploring data augmentation techniques. Experimental results show that M2DPM runs much faster than similar algorithms without sacrificing prediction accuracies.

In machine learning and statistics, probabilistic inference involving multimodal distributions is quite difficult. This is especially true in high dimensional problems, where most existing algorithms cannot easily move from one mode to another. To address this issue, we propose a novel Bayesian inference approach based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Our method can effectively sample from multimodal distributions, especially when the dimension is high and the modes are isolated. To this end, it exploits and modifies the Riemannian geometric properties of the target distribution to create \emph{wormholes} connecting modes in order to facilitate moving between them. Further, our proposed method uses the regeneration technique in order to adapt the algorithm by identifying new modes and updating the network of wormholes without affecting the stationary distribution. To find new modes, as opposed to rediscovering those previously identified, we employ a novel mode searching algorithm that explores a \emph{residual energy} function obtained by subtracting an approximate Gaussian mixture density (based on previously discovered modes) from the target density function.

Recent advances of kernel methods have yielded a framework for representing probabilities using a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, called kernel embedding of distributions. In this paper, we propose a Monte Carlo filtering algorithm based on kernel embeddings. The proposed method is applied to state-space models where sampling from the transition model is possible, while the observation model is to be learned from training samples without assuming a parametric model. As a theoretical basis of the proposed method, we prove consistency of the Monte Carlo method combined with kernel embeddings. Experimental results on synthetic models and real vision-based robot localization confirm the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Transfer learning considers related but distinct tasks defined on heterogenous domains and tries to transfer knowledge between these tasks to improve generalization performance. It is particularly useful when we do not have sufficient amount of labeled training data in some tasks, which may be very costly, laborious, or even infeasible to obtain. Instead, learning the tasks jointly enables us to effectively increase the amount of labeled training data. In this paper, we formulate a kernelized Bayesian transfer learning framework that is a principled combination of kernel-based dimensionality reduction models with task-specific projection matrices to find a shared subspace and a coupled classification model for all of the tasks in this subspace. Our two main contributions are: (i) two novel probabilistic models for binary and multiclass classification, and (ii) very efficient variational approximation procedures for these models. We illustrate the generalization performance of our algorithms on two different applications. In computer vision experiments, our method outperforms the state-of-the-art algorithms on nine out of 12 benchmark supervised domain adaptation experiments defined on two object recognition data sets. In cancer biology experiments, we use our algorithm to predict mutation status of important cancer genes from gene expression profiles using two distinct cancer populations, namely, patient-derived primary tumor data and in-vitro-derived cancer cell line data. We show that we can increase our generalization performance on primary tumors using cell lines as an auxiliary data source.

This paper presents an extension of the cascading Indian buffet process (CIBP) intended to learning arbitrary directed acyclic graph structures as opposed to the CIBP, which is limited to purely layered structures. The extended cascading Indian buffet process (eCIBP) essentially consists in adding an extra sampling step to the CIBP to generate connections between non-consecutive layers. In the context of graphical model structure learning, the proposed approach allows learning structures having an unbounded number of hidden random variables and automatically selecting the model complexity. We evaluated the extended process on multivariate density estimation and structure identification tasks by measuring the structure complexity and predictive performance. The results suggest the extension leads to extracting simpler graphs without scarifying predictive precision.

Many distance learning algorithms have been developed in recent years. However, few of them consider the problem when the class labels of training data are noisy, and this may lead to serious performance deterioration. In this paper, we present a robust distance learning method in the presence of label noise, by extending a previous non-parametric discriminative distance learning algorithm, i.e., Neighbourhood Components Analysis (NCA). Particularly, we analyze the effect of label noise on the derivative of likelihood with respect to the transformation matrix, and propose to model the conditional probability of the true label of each point so as to reduce that effect. The model is then optimized within the EM framework, with additional regularization used to avoid overfitting. Our experiments on several UCI datasets and a real dataset with unknown noise patterns show that the proposed RNCA is more tolerant to class label noise compared to the original NCA method.

Recent works have explored the use of brain signals to directly control virtual and robotic agents in sequential tasks. So far in such brain-computer interfaces (BCI), an explicit calibration phase was required to build a decoder that translates raw electroencephalography (EEG) signals from the brain of each user into meaningful instructions. This paper proposes a method that removes the calibration phase, and allows a user to control an agent to solve a sequential task. The proposed method assumes a distribution of possible tasks, and infers the interpretation of EEG signals and the task by selecting the hypothesis which best explains the history of interaction. We introduce a measure of uncertainty on the task and on the EEG signal interpretation to act as an exploratory bonus for a planning strategy. This speeds up learning by guiding the system to regions that better disambiguate among task hypotheses. We report experiments where four users use BCI to control an agent on a virtual world to reach a target without any previous calibration process.