Bayesian entity resolution merges together multiple, noisy databases and returns the minimal collection of unique individuals represented, together with their true, latent record values. Bayesian methods allow flexible generative models that share power across databases as well as principled quantification of uncertainty for queries of the final, resolved database. However, existing Bayesian methods for entity resolution use Markov monte Carlo method (MCMC) approximations and are too slow to run on modern databases containing millions or billions of records. Instead, we propose applying variational approximations to allow scalable Bayesian inference in these models. We derive a coordinate-ascent approximation for mean-field variational Bayes, qualitatively compare our algorithm to existing methods, note unique challenges for inference that arise from the expected distribution of cluster sizes in entity resolution, and discuss directions for future work in this domain.

Thompson sampling provides a solution to bandit problems in which new observations are allocated to arms with the posterior probability that an arm is optimal. While sometimes easy to implement and asymptotically optimal, Thompson sampling can be computationally demanding in large scale bandit problems, and its performance is dependent on the model fit to the observed data. We introduce bootstrap Thompson sampling (BTS), a heuristic method for solving bandit problems which modifies Thompson sampling by replacing the posterior distribution used in Thompson sampling by a bootstrap distribution. We first explain BTS and show that the performance of BTS is competitive to Thompson sampling in the well-studied Bernoulli bandit case. Subsequently, we detail why BTS using the online bootstrap is more scalable than regular Thompson sampling, and we show through simulation that BTS is more robust to a misspecified error distribution. BTS is an appealing modification of Thompson sampling, especially when samples from the posterior are otherwise not available or are costly.

We develop a scoring and classification procedure based on the PAC-Bayesian approach and the AUC (Area Under Curve) criterion. We focus initially on the class of linear score functions. We derive PAC-Bayesian non-asymptotic bounds for two types of prior for the score parameters: a Gaussian prior, and a spike-and-slab prior; the latter makes it possible to perform feature selection. One important advantage of our approach is that it is amenable to powerful Bayesian computational tools. We derive in particular a Sequential Monte Carlo algorithm, as an efficient method which may be used as a gold standard, and an Expectation-Propagation algorithm, as a much faster but approximate method. We also extend our method to a class of non-linear score functions, essentially leading to a nonparametric procedure, by considering a Gaussian process prior.

--CANDECOMP/P ARAFAC (CP) tensor factorization of incomplete data is a powerful technique for tensor completion through explicitly capturing the multilinear latent factors. The existing CP algorithms require the tensor rank to be manually specified, however, the determination of tensor rank remains a challenging problem especially for CP rank . In addition, existing approaches do not take into account uncertainty information of latent factors, as well as missing entries. T o address these issues, we formulate CP factorization using a hierarchical probabilistic model and employ a fully Bayesian treatment by incorporating a sparsity-inducing prior over multiple latent factors and the appropriate hyperpriors over all hyperparameters, resulting in automatic rank determination. T o learn the model, we develop an efficient deterministic Bayesian inference algorithm, which scales linearly with data size. Our method is characterized as a tuning parameter-free approach, which can effectively infer underlying multilinear factors with a low-rank constraint, while also providing predictive distributions over missing entries. Extensive simulations on synthetic data illustrate the intrinsic capability of our method to recover the ground-truth of CP rank and prevent the overfitting problem, even when a large amount of entries are missing. Moreover, the results from real-world applications, including image inpainting and facial image synthesis, demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art approaches for both tensor factorization and tensor completion in terms of predictive performance. For instance, a video sequence can be represented by a third-order tensor with dimensionality of height width time; an image ensemble measured under multiple conditions can be represented by a higher order tensor with dimensionality ofpixel person pose illumination . T ensor factorization enables us to explicitly take into account the structure information by effectively capturing the multilinear interactions among multiple latent factors. Therefore, its theory and algorithms have been an active area of study during the past decade (see e.g., [1], [2]), and have been successfully applied to various application fields, such as face recognition, social network analysis, image and video completion, and brain signal processing. This issue has attracted a great deal of research interest in tensor completion in recent years. The objective of tensor factorization of incomplete data is to capture the underlying multilinear factors from only partially observed entries, which can in turn predict the missing entries.

Inference in general Ising models is difficult, due to high treewidth making tree-based algorithms intractable. Moreover, when interactions are strong, Gibbs sampling may take exponential time to converge to the stationary distribution. We present an algorithm to project Ising model parameters onto a parameter set that is guaranteed to be fast mixing, under several divergences. We find that Gibbs sampling using the projected parameters is more accurate than with the original parameters when interaction strengths are strong and when limited time is available for sampling.

While most Bayesian nonparametric models in machine learning have focused on the Dirichlet process, the beta process, or their variants, the gamma process has recently emerged as a useful nonparametric prior in its own right. Current inference schemes for models involving the gamma process are restricted to MCMC-based methods, which limits their scalability. In this paper, we present a variational inference framework for models involving gamma process priors. Our approach is based on a novel stick-breaking constructive definition of the gamma process. We prove correctness of this stick-breaking process by using the characterization of the gamma process as a completely random measure (CRM), and we explicitly derive the rate measure of our construction using Poisson process machinery. We also derive error bounds on the truncation of the infinite process required for variational inference, similar to the truncation analyses for other nonparametric models based on the Dirichlet and beta processes. Our representation is then used to derive a variational inference algorithm for a particular Bayesian nonparametric latent structure formulation known as the infinite Gamma-Poisson model, where the latent variables are drawn from a gamma process prior with Poisson likelihoods. Finally, we present results for our algorithms on nonnegative matrix factorization tasks on document corpora, and show that we compare favorably to both sampling-based techniques and variational approaches based on beta-Bernoulli priors.

In many statistical learning problems, the target functions to be optimized are highly non-convex in various model spaces and thus are difficult to analyze. In this paper, we compute Energy Landscape Maps (ELMs) which characterize and visualize an energy function with a tree structure, in which each leaf node represents a local minimum and each non-leaf node represents the barrier between adjacent energy basins. The ELM also associates each node with the estimated probability mass and volume for the corresponding energy basin. We construct ELMs by adopting the generalized Wang-Landau algorithm and multidomain sampler that simulates a Markov chain traversing the model space by dynamically reweighting the energy function. We construct ELMs in the model space for two classic statistical learning problems: i) clustering with Gaussian mixture models or Bernoulli templates; and ii) bi-clustering. We propose a way to measure the difficulties (or complexity) of these learning problems and study how various conditions affect the landscape complexity, such as separability of the clusters, the number of examples, and the level of supervision; and we also visualize the behaviors of different algorithms, such as K-mean, EM, two-step EM and Swendsen-Wang cuts, in the energy landscapes. Key words and phrases: Non-convex Optimization, Visualization, Clustering, Bi-clustering, Markov chain Monte Carlo. 1. INTRODUCTION In many statistical learning problems, the energy functions to be optimized are highly non-convex.

Probabilistic approaches for tensor factorization aim to extract meaningful structure from incomplete data by postulating low rank constraints. Recently, variational Bayesian (VB) inference techniques have successfully been applied to large scale models. This paper presents full Bayesian inference via VB on both single and coupled tensor factorization models. Our method can be run even for very large models and is easily implemented. It exhibits better prediction performance than existing approaches based on maximum likelihood on several real-world datasets for missing link prediction problem.

In (exploratory) factor analysis, the loading matrix is identified only up to orthogonal rotation. For identifiability, one thus often takes the loading matrix to be lower triangular with positive diagonal entries. In Bayesian inference, a standard practice is then to specify a prior under which the loadings are independent, the off-diagonal loadings are normally distributed, and the diagonal loadings follow a truncated normal distribution. This prior specification, however, depends in an important way on how the variables and associated rows of the loading matrix are ordered. We show how a minor modification of the approach allows one to compute with the identifiable lower triangular loading matrix but maintain invariance properties under reordering of the variables.

Maximum likelihood is the most widely used statistical estimation technique. Recent work by Jiao, Venkat, Han, and Weissman [1] introduced a general methodology for the construction of estimators for functionals in parametric models, and demonstrated improvements - both in theory and in practice - over the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), particularly in high dimensional scenarios involving parameter dimension comparable to or larger than the number of samples. This approach to estimation, building on results from approximation theory, is shown to yield minimax rate-optimal estimators for a wide class of functionals, implementable with modest computational requirements. In a nutshell, a message of this recent work is that, for a wide class of functionals, the performance of these essentially optimal estimators with n samples is comparable to that of the MLE with nlnn samples. In the present paper, we highlight the applicability of the aforementioned methodology to statistical problems beyond functional estimation, and show that it can yield substantial gains. For example, we demonstrate that for learning tree-structured graphical models, our approach achieves a significant reduction of the required data size compared with the classical Chow-Liu algorithm, which is an implementation of the MLE, to achieve the same accuracy. The key step in improving the Chow-Liu algorithm is to replace the empirical mutual information with the estimator for mutual information proposed in [1]. Further, applying the same replacement approach to classical Bayesian network classification, the resulting classifiers uniformly outperform the previous classifiers on 26 widely used datasets.