We propose a technique for decomposing the parameter learning problem in Bayesian networks into independent learning problems. Our technique applies to incomplete datasets and exploits variables that are either hidden or observed in the given dataset. We show empirically that the proposed technique can lead to orders-of-magnitude savings in learning time. We explain, analytically and empirically, the reasons behind our reported savings, and compare the proposed technique to related ones that are sometimes used by inference algorithms.

We propose a novel sampling framework for inference in probabilistic models: an active learning approach that converges more quickly (in wall-clock time) than Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) benchmarks. The central challenge in probabilistic inference is numerical integration, to average over ensembles of models or unknown (hyper-)parameters (for example to compute marginal likelihood or a partition function). MCMC has provided approaches to numerical integration that deliver state-of-the-art inference, but can suffer from sample inefficiency and poor convergence diagnostics. Bayesian quadrature techniques offer a model-based solution to such problems, but their uptake has been hindered by prohibitive computation costs. We introduce a warped model for probabilistic integrands (likelihoods) that are known to be non-negative, permitting a cheap active learning scheme to optimally select sample locations. Our algorithm is demonstrated to offer faster convergence (in seconds) relative to simple Monte Carlo and annealed importance sampling on both synthetic and real-world examples.

The prediction of time-changing variances is an important task in the modeling of financial data. Standard econometric models are often limited as they assume rigid functional relationships for the evolution of the variance. Moreover, functional parameters are usually learned by maximum likelihood, which can lead to overfitting. To address these problems we introduce GP-Vol, a novel non-parametric model for time-changing variances based on Gaussian Processes. This new model can capture highly flexible functional relationships for the variances. Furthermore, we introduce a new online algorithm for fast inference in GP-Vol. This method is much faster than current offline inference procedures and it avoids overfitting problems by following a fully Bayesian approach. Experiments with financial data show that GP-Vol performs significantly better than current standard alternatives.

It has been long argued that, because of inherent ambiguity and noise, the brain needs to represent uncertainty in the form of probability distributions. The neural encodingof such distributions remains however highly controversial. Here we present a novel circuit model for representing multidimensional real-valued distributions usinga spike based spatiotemporal code. Our model combines the computational advantagesof the currently competing models for probabilistic codes and exhibits realistic neural responses along a variety of classic measures. Furthermore, themodel highlights the challenges associated with interpreting neural activity in relation to behavioral uncertainty and points to alternative populationlevel approachesfor the experimental validation of distributed representations. Core brain computations, such as sensory perception, have been successfully characterized as probabilistic inference,whereby sensory stimuli are interpreted in terms of the objects or features that gave rise to them [1, 2].

Sparse signal recovery addresses the problem of solving underdetermined linear inverse problems subject to a sparsity constraint. We propose a novel prior formulation, the structured spike and slab prior, which allows to incorporate a priori knowledge of the sparsity pattern by imposing a spatial Gaussian process on the spike and slab probabilities. Thus, prior information on the structure of the sparsity pattern can be encoded using generic covariance functions. Furthermore, we provide a Bayesian inference scheme for the proposed model based on the expectation propagation framework. Using numerical experiments on synthetic data, we demonstrate the benefits of the model.

State-space models have been successfully used for more than fifty years in different areas of science and engineering. We present a procedure for efficient variational Bayesian learning of nonlinear state-space models based on sparse Gaussian processes. The result of learning is a tractable posterior over nonlinear dynamical systems. In comparison to conventional parametric models, we offer the possibility to straightforwardly trade off model capacity and computational cost whilst avoiding overfitting. Our main algorithm uses a hybrid inference approach combining variational Bayes and sequential Monte Carlo. We also present stochastic variational inference and online learning approaches for fast learning with long time series.

Even though heterogeneous databases can be found in a broad variety of applications, there exists a lack of tools for estimating missing data in such databases. In this paper, we provide an efficient and robust table completion tool, based on a Bayesian nonparametric latent feature model. In particular, we propose a general observation model for the Indian buffet process (IBP) adapted to mixed continuous (real-valued and positive real-valued) and discrete (categorical, ordinal and count) observations. Then, we propose an inference algorithm that scales linearly with the number of observations. Finally, our experiments over five real databases show that the proposed approach provides more robust and accurate estimates than the standard IBP and the Bayesian probabilistic matrix factorization with Gaussian observations.

The Indian Buffet Process is a versatile statistical tool for modeling distributions over binary matrices. We provide an efficient spectral algorithm as an alternative to costly Variational Bayes and sampling-based algorithms. We derive a novel tensorial characterization of the moments of the Indian Buffet Process proper and for two of its applications. We give a computationally efficient iterative inference algorithm, concentration of measure bounds, and reconstruction guarantees. Our algorithm provides superior accuracy and cheaper computation than comparable Variational Bayesian approach on a number of reference problems.

The Generic Viewpoint Assumption (GVA) states that the position of the viewer or the light in a scene is not special. Thus, any estimated parameters from an observation should be stable under small perturbations such as object, viewpoint or light positions. The GVA has been analyzed and quantified in previous works, but has not been put to practical use in actual vision tasks. In this paper, we show how to utilize the GVA to estimate shape and illumination from a single shading image, without the use of other priors. We propose a novel linearized Spherical Harmonics (SH) shading model which enables us to obtain a computationally efficient form of the GVA term. Together with a data term, we build a model whose unknowns are shape and SH illumination. The model parameters are estimated using the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers embedded in a multi-scale estimation framework. In this prior-free framework, we obtain competitive shape and illumination estimation results under a variety of models and lighting conditions, requiring fewer assumptions than competing methods.

This paper is concerned with compressive sensing of signals drawn from a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) with sparse precision matrices. Previous work has shown: (i) a signal drawn from a given GMM can be perfectly reconstructed from r noise-free measurements if the (dominant) rank of each covariance matrix is less than r; (ii) a sparse Gaussian graphical model can be efficiently estimated from fully-observed training signals using graphical lasso. This paper addresses a problem more challenging than both (i) and (ii), by assuming that the GMM is unknown and each signal is only partially observed through incomplete linear measurements. Under these challenging assumptions, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian method to simultaneously estimate the GMM and recover the signals using solely the incomplete measurements and a Bayesian shrinkage prior that promotes sparsity of the Gaussian precision matrices. In addition, we provide theoretical performance bounds to relate the reconstruction error to the number of signals for which measurements are available, the sparsity level of precision matrices, and the “incompleteness” of measurements. The proposed method is demonstrated extensively on compressive sensing of imagery and video, and the results with simulated and hardware-acquired real measurements show significant performance improvement over state-of-the-art methods.