A parametrization of hypergraphs based on the geometry of points in $\mathbf{R}^d$ is developed. Informative prior distributions on hypergraphs are induced through this parametrization by priors on point configurations via spatial processes. This prior specification is used to infer conditional independence models or Markov structure of multivariate distributions. Specifically, we can recover both the junction tree factorization as well as the hyper Markov law. This approach offers greater control on the distribution of graph features than Erd\"os-R\'enyi random graphs, supports inference of factorizations that cannot be retrieved by a graph alone, and leads to new Metropolis\slash Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms with both local and global moves in graph space. We illustrate the utility of this parametrization and prior specification using simulations.

Bayesian models have proven to be one of the most successful classes of tools in machine learning. It stands out as a principled yet conceptually simple pipeline for combining expert knowledge and statistical evidence, modelling with complicated dependency structures and harnessing uncertainty by making probabilistic inferences (Geman & Geman, 1984; Gelman et al., 2014). In the past few decades, the Bayesian approach has been intensively used in modelling speeches (Rabiner, 1989), text documents (Blei et al., 2003), images/videos (Fei-Fei & Perona, 2005), social networks (Airoldi et al., 2009), brain activity (Penny et al., 2011), and is often considered gold standard in many of these application domains. Learning a Bayesisan model typically involves sampling from a posterior distribution, therefore the learning process is inherently randomized. Differential privacy (DP) is a cryptography-inspired notion of privacy (Dwork, 2006; Dwork et al., 2006). It is designed to provide a very strong form of protection of individual user's private information and at the same time allow data analyses to be conducted with proper utility. Any algorithm that preserves differential privacy must be appropriately randomized too. For instance, one can differential-privately release the average salary of Californian males by adding a Laplace noise proportional to the sensitivity of this figure upon small perturbation of the data sample. In this paper, we connect the two seemingly unrelated concepts by showing that under standard assumptions, the intrinsic randomization in the Bayesian learning can be exploited to obtain a degree of differential privacy.

We show that unconverged stochastic gradient descent can be interpreted as a procedure that samples from a nonparametric variational approximate posterior distribution. This distribution is implicitly defined as the transformation of an initial distribution by a sequence of optimization updates. By tracking the change in entropy over this sequence of transformations during optimization, we form a scalable, unbiased estimate of the variational lower bound on the log marginal likelihood. We can use this bound to optimize hyperparameters instead of using cross-validation. This Bayesian interpretation of SGD suggests improved, overfitting-resistant optimization procedures, and gives a theoretical foundation for popular tricks such as early stopping and ensembling. We investigate the properties of this marginal likelihood estimator on neural network models.

We establish bounds on the KL divergence between two multivariate Gaussian distributions in terms of the Hamming distance between the edge sets of the corresponding graphical models. We show that the KL divergence is bounded below by a constant when the graphs differ by at least one edge; this is essentially the tightest possible bound, since classes of graphs exist for which the edge discrepancy increases but the KL divergence remains bounded above by a constant. As a natural corollary to our KL lower bound, we also establish a sample size requirement for correct model selection via maximum likelihood estimation. Our results rigorize the notion that it is essential to estimate the edge structure of a Gaussian graphical model accurately in order to approximate the true distribution to close precision.

Truly complex stochastic processes--the infinitary processes [1] whose mutual information between past and future diverges--arise in many physical and biological systems [2-5], such as those in critical states. They are implicated in many natural phenomena, from the geophysics of earthquakes [6] and physiological measurements of neural avalanches [7] to semantics in natural language [8] and cascading failure in power transmission grids [9]. Their apparent infinite memory makes empirical estimation and modeling particularly challenging. The difficulty is reflected in the computational complexity of inference [10]: the resources required to predict and model them diverge in sample size, in memory for storing model parameters, and in memory required for prediction. Resource scaling, an analog of the venerable technique of finite-size scaling in statistical mechanics, suggests that for infinitary processes we look for statistical signatures that track divergences. Since resource divergences are sensitive to a process's inherent randomness and organization, one hopes that their scaling forms are uniquely revealing indicators of process complexity and can guide the selection of appropriate models. To date, though, there are few tractable constructions with which to explore possible general relationships between prediction, complexity, and learning for infinitary processes.

The Libra Toolkit is a collection of algorithms for learning and inference with discrete probabilistic models, including Bayesian networks, Markov networks, dependency networks, and sum-product networks. Compared to other toolkits, Libra places a greater emphasis on learning the structure of tractable models in which exact inference is efficient. It also includes a variety of algorithms for learning graphical models in which inference is potentially intractable, and for performing exact and approximate inference. Libra is released under a 2-clause BSD license to encourage broad use in academia and industry.

We consider reinforcement learning in parameterized Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), where the parameterization may induce correlation across transition probabilities or rewards. Consequently, observing a particular state transition might yield useful information about other, unobserved, parts of the MDP. We present a version of Thompson sampling for parameterized reinforcement learning problems, and derive a frequentist regret bound for priors over general parameter spaces. The result shows that the number of instants where suboptimal actions are chosen scales logarithmically with time, with high probability. It holds for prior distributions that put significant probability near the true model, without any additional, specific closed-form structure such as conjugate or product-form priors. The constant factor in the logarithmic scaling encodes the information complexity of learning the MDP in terms of the Kullback-Leibler geometry of the parameter space.

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) are likelihood-free Monte Carlo methods. ABC methods use a comparison between simulated data, using different parameters drew from a prior distribution, and observed data. This comparison process is based on computing a distance between the summary statistics from the simulated data and the observed data. For complex models, it is usually difficult to define a methodology for choosing or constructing the summary statistics. Recently, a nonparametric ABC has been proposed, that uses a dissimilarity measure between discrete distributions based on empirical kernel embeddings as an alternative for summary statistics. The nonparametric ABC outperforms other methods including ABC, kernel ABC or synthetic likelihood ABC. However, it assumes that the probability distributions are discrete, and it is not robust when dealing with few observations. In this paper, we propose to apply kernel embeddings using an smoother density estimator or Parzen estimator for comparing the empirical data distributions, and computing the ABC posterior. Synthetic data and real data were used to test the Bayesian inference of our method. We compare our method with respect to state-of-the-art methods, and demonstrate that our method is a robust estimator of the posterior distribution in terms of the number of observations.

Incorporating the side information of text corpus, i.e., authors, time stamps, and emotional tags, into the traditional text mining models has gained significant interests in the area of information retrieval, statistical natural language processing, and machine learning. One branch of these works is the so-called Author Topic Model (ATM), which incorporates the authors's interests as side information into the classical topic model. However, the existing ATM needs to predefine the number of topics, which is difficult and inappropriate in many real-world settings. In this paper, we propose an Infinite Author Topic (IAT) model to resolve this issue. Instead of assigning a discrete probability on fixed number of topics, we use a stochastic process to determine the number of topics from the data itself. To be specific, we extend a gamma-negative binomial process to three levels in order to capture the author-document-keyword hierarchical structure. Furthermore, each document is assigned a mixed gamma process that accounts for the multi-author's contribution towards this document. An efficient Gibbs sampling inference algorithm with each conditional distribution being closed-form is developed for the IAT model. Experiments on several real-world datasets show the capabilities of our IAT model to learn the hidden topics, authors' interests on these topics and the number of topics simultaneously.

Traditional Relational Topic Models provide a way to discover the hidden topics from a document network. Many theoretical and practical tasks, such as dimensional reduction, document clustering, link prediction, benefit from this revealed knowledge. However, existing relational topic models are based on an assumption that the number of hidden topics is known in advance, and this is impractical in many real-world applications. Therefore, in order to relax this assumption, we propose a nonparametric relational topic model in this paper. Instead of using fixed-dimensional probability distributions in its generative model, we use stochastic processes. Specifically, a gamma process is assigned to each document, which represents the topic interest of this document. Although this method provides an elegant solution, it brings additional challenges when mathematically modeling the inherent network structure of typical document network, i.e., two spatially closer documents tend to have more similar topics. Furthermore, we require that the topics are shared by all the documents. In order to resolve these challenges, we use a subsampling strategy to assign each document a different gamma process from the global gamma process, and the subsampling probabilities of documents are assigned with a Markov Random Field constraint that inherits the document network structure. Through the designed posterior inference algorithm, we can discover the hidden topics and its number simultaneously. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world network datasets demonstrate the capabilities of learning the hidden topics and, more importantly, the number of topics.