Many practical modeling problems involve discrete data that are best represented as draws from multinomial or categorical distributions. For example, nucleotides in a DNA sequence, children's names in a given state and year, and text documents are all commonly modeled with multinomial distributions. In all of these cases, we expect some form of dependency between the draws: the nucleotide at one position in the DNA strand may depend on the preceding nucleotides, children's names are highly correlated from year to year, and topics in text may be correlated and dynamic. These dependencies are not naturally captured by the typical Dirichlet-multinomial formulation. Here, we leverage a logistic stick-breaking representation and recent innovations in P\'{o}lya-gamma augmentation to reformulate the multinomial distribution in terms of latent variables with jointly Gaussian likelihoods, enabling us to take advantage of a host of Bayesian inference techniques for Gaussian models with minimal overhead.

We propose a new variational inference method based on the Kullback-Leibler (KL) proximal term. We make two contributions towards improving efficiency of variational inference. Firstly, we derive a KL proximal-point algorithm and show its equivalence to gradient descent with natural gradient in stochastic variational inference. Secondly, we use the proximal framework to derive efficient variational algorithms for non-conjugate models. We propose a splitting procedure to separate non-conjugate terms from conjugate ones. We then linearize the non-conjugate terms and show that the resulting subproblem admits a closed-form solution. Overall, our approach converts a non-conjugate model to subproblems that involve inference in well-known conjugate models. We apply our method to many models and derive generalizations for non-conjugate exponential family. Applications to real-world datasets show that our proposed algorithms are easy to implement, fast to converge, perform well, and reduce computations.

We present a scalable Bayesian multi-label learning model based on learning low-dimensional label embeddings. Our model assumes that each label vector is generated as a weighted combination of a set of topics (each topic being a distribution over labels), where the combination weights (i.e., the embeddings) for each label vector are conditioned on the observed feature vector. This construction, coupled with a Bernoulli-Poisson link function for each label of the binary label vector, leads to a model with a computational cost that scales in the number of positive labels in the label matrix. This makes the model particularly appealing for real-world multi-label learning problems where the label matrix is usually very massive but highly sparse. Using a data-augmentation strategy leads to full local conjugacy in our model, facilitating simple and very efficient Gibbs sampling, as well as an Expectation Maximization algorithm for inference. Also, predicting the label vector at test time does not require doing an inference for the label embeddings and can be done in closed form. We report results on several benchmark data sets, comparing our model with various state-of-the art methods.

Bayesian nonparametric models, such as Gaussian processes, provide a compelling framework for automatic statistical modelling: these models have a high degree of flexibility, and automatically calibrated complexity. However, automating human expertise remains elusive; for example, Gaussian processes with standard kernels struggle on function extrapolation problems that are trivial for human learners. In this paper, we create function extrapolation problems and acquire human responses, and then design a kernel learning framework to reverse engineer the inductive biases of human learners across a set of behavioral experiments. We use the learned kernels to gain psychological insights and to extrapolate in human-like ways that go beyond traditional stationary and polynomial kernels. Finally, we investigate Occam's razor in human and Gaussian process based function learning.

In recent years, approaches based on machine learning have achieved state-of-the-art performance on image restoration problems. Successful approaches include both generative models of natural images as well as discriminative training of deep neural networks. Discriminative training of feed forward architectures allows explicit control over the computational cost of performing restoration and therefore often leads to better performance at the same cost at run time. In contrast, generative models have the advantage that they can be trained once and then adapted to any image restoration task by a simple use of Bayes' rule. In this paper we show how to combine the strengths of both approaches by training a discriminative, feed-forward architecture to predict the state of latent variables in a generative model of natural images. We apply this idea to the very successful Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) of natural images. We show that it is possible to achieve comparable performance as the original GMM but with two orders of magnitude improvement in run time while maintaining the advantage of generative models.

We introduce local expectation gradients which is a general purpose stochastic variational inference algorithm for constructing stochastic gradients by sampling from the variational distribution. This algorithm divides the problem of estimating the stochastic gradients over multiple variational parameters into smaller sub-tasks so that each sub-task explores intelligently the most relevant part of the variational distribution. This is achieved by performing an exact expectation over the single random variable that most correlates with the variational parameter of interest resulting in a Rao-Blackwellized estimate that has low variance. Our method works efficiently for both continuous and discrete random variables. Furthermore, the proposed algorithm has interesting similarities with Gibbs sampling but at the same time, unlike Gibbs sampling, can be trivially parallelized.

We explore an as yet unexploited opportunity for drastically improving the efficiency of stochastic gradient variational Bayes (SGVB) with global model parameters. Regular SGVB estimators rely on sampling of parameters once per minibatch of data, and have variance that is constant w.r.t. the minibatch size. The efficiency of such estimators can be drastically improved upon by translating uncertainty about global parameters into local noise that is independent across datapoints in the minibatch. Such reparameterizations with local noise can be trivially parallelized and have variance that is inversely proportional to the minibatch size, generally leading to much faster convergence.We find an important connection with regularization by dropout: the original Gaussian dropout objective corresponds to SGVB with local noise, a scale-invariant prior and proportionally fixed posterior variance. Our method allows inference of more flexibly parameterized posteriors; specifically, we propose \emph{variational dropout}, a generalization of Gaussian dropout, but with a more flexibly parameterized posterior, often leading to better generalization. The method is demonstrated through several experiments.

The dynamics of simple decisions are well understood and modeled as a class of random walk models (e.g. Laming, 1968; Ratcliff, 1978; Busemeyer and Townsend, 1993; Usher and McClelland, 2001; Bogacz et al., 2006). However, most real-life decisions include a rich and dynamically-changing influence of additional information we call context. In this work, we describe a computational theory of decision making under dynamically shifting context. We show how the model generalizes the dominant existing model of fixed-context decision making (Ratcliff, 1978) and can be built up from a weighted combination of fixed-context decisions evolving simultaneously. We also show how the model generalizes re- cent work on the control of attention in the Flanker task (Yu et al., 2009). Finally, we show how the model recovers qualitative data patterns in another task of longstanding psychological interest, the AX Continuous Performance Test (Servan-Schreiber et al., 1996), using the same model parameters.

The degree of confidence in one's choice or decision is a critical aspect of perceptual decision making. Attempts to quantify a decision maker's confidence by measuring accuracy in a task have yielded limited success because confidence and accuracy are typically not equal. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian framework to model confidence in perceptual decision making. We show that this model, based on partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs), is able to predict confidence of a decision maker based only on the data available to the experimenter. We test our model on two experiments on confidence-based decision making involving the well-known random dots motion discrimination task. In both experiments, we show that our model's predictions closely match experimental data. Additionally, our model is also consistent with other phenomena such as the hard-easy effect in perceptual decision making.

We introduce a novel information-theoretic approach for active model selection and demonstrate its effectiveness in a real-world application. Although our method can work with arbitrary models, we focus on actively learning the appropriate structure for Gaussian process (GP) models with arbitrary observation likelihoods. We then apply this framework to rapid screening for noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL), a widespread and preventible disability, if diagnosed early. We construct a GP model for pure-tone audiometric responses of patients with NIHL. Using this and a previously published model for healthy responses, the proposed method is shown to be capable of diagnosing the presence or absence of NIHL with drastically fewer samples than existing approaches. Further, the method is extremely fast and enables the diagnosis to be performed in real time.