The stochastic block model (SBM) is a generative model revealing macroscopic structures in graphs. Bayesian methods are used for (i) cluster assignment inference and (ii) model selection for the number of clusters. In this paper, we study the behavior of Bayesian inference in the SBM in the large sample limit. Combining variational approximation and Laplace's method, a consistent criterion of the fully marginalized log-likelihood is established. Based on that, we derive a tractable algorithm that solves tasks (i) and (ii) concurrently, obviating the need for an outer loop to check all model candidates. Our empirical and theoretical results demonstrate that our method is scalable in computation, accurate in approximation, and concise in model selection.

Boolean matrix factorization and Boolean matrix completion from noisy observations are desirable unsupervised data-analysis methods due to their interpretability, but hard to perform due to their NP-hardness. We treat these problems as maximum a posteriori inference problems in a graphical model and present a message passing approach that scales linearly with the number of observations and factors. Our empirical study demonstrates that message passing is able to recover low-rank Boolean matrices, in the boundaries of theoretically possible recovery and compares favorably with state-of-the-art in real-world applications, such collaborative filtering with large-scale Boolean data.

Collaborative filtering analyzes user preferences for items (e.g., books, movies, restaurants, academic papers) by exploiting the similarity patterns across users. In implicit feedback settings, all the items, including the ones that a user did not consume, are taken into consideration. But this assumption does not accord with the common sense understanding that users have a limited scope and awareness of items. For example, a user might not have heard of a certain paper, or might live too far away from a restaurant to experience it. In the language of causal analysis, the assignment mechanism (i.e., the items that a user is exposed to) is a latent variable that may change for various user/item combinations. In this paper, we propose a new probabilistic approach that directly incorporates user exposure to items into collaborative filtering. The exposure is modeled as a latent variable and the model infers its value from data. In doing so, we recover one of the most successful state-of-the-art approaches as a special case of our model, and provide a plug-in method for conditioning exposure on various forms of exposure covariates (e.g., topics in text, venue locations). We show that our scalable inference algorithm outperforms existing benchmarks in four different domains both with and without exposure covariates.

In high-dimensional data, structured noise caused by observed and unobserved factors affecting multiple target variables simultaneously, imposes a serious challenge for modeling, by masking the often weak signal. Therefore, (1) explaining away the structured noise in multiple-output regression is of paramount importance. Additionally, (2) assumptions about the correlation structure of the regression weights are needed. We note that both can be formulated in a natural way in a latent variable model, in which both the interesting signal and the noise are mediated through the same latent factors. Under this assumption, the signal model then borrows strength from the noise model by encouraging similar effects on correlated targets. We introduce a hyperparameter for the \emph{latent signal-to-noise ratio} which turns out to be important for modelling weak signals, and an ordered infinite-dimensional shrinkage prior that resolves the rotational unidentifiability in reduced-rank regression models. Simulations and prediction experiments with metabolite, gene expression, FMRI measurement, and macroeconomic time series data show that our model equals or exceeds the state-of-the-art performance and, in particular, outperforms the standard approach of assuming independent noise and signal models.

Supervised statistical classification is a vital tool for satellite image processing. It is useful not only when a discrete result, such as feature extraction or surface type, is required, but also for continuum retrievals by dividing the quantity of interest into discrete ranges. Because of the high resolution of modern satellite instruments and because of the requirement for real-time processing, any algorithm has to be fast to be useful. Here we describe an algorithm based on kernel estimation called Adaptive Gaussian Filtering that incorporates several innovations to produce superior efficiency as compared to three other popular methods: k-nearest-neighbour (KNN), Learning Vector Quantization (LVQ) and Support Vector Machines (SVM). This efficiency is gained with no compromises: accuracy is maintained, while estimates of the conditional probabilities are returned. These are useful not only to gauge the accuracy of an estimate in the absence of its true value, but also to re-calibrate a retrieved image and as a proxy for a discretized continuum variable. The algorithm is demonstrated and compared with the other three on a pair of synthetic test classes and to map the waterways of the Netherlands. Software may be found at: http://libagf.sourceforge.net.

Most signal processing problems involve the challenging task of multidimensional probability density function (PDF) estimation. In this work, we propose a solution to this problem by using a family of Rotation-based Iterative Gaussianization (RBIG) transforms. The general framework consists of the sequential application of a univariate marginal Gaussianization transform followed by an orthonormal transform. The proposed procedure looks for differentiable transforms to a known PDF so that the unknown PDF can be estimated at any point of the original domain. In particular, we aim at a zero mean unit covariance Gaussian for convenience. RBIG is formally similar to classical iterative Projection Pursuit (PP) algorithms. However, we show that, unlike in PP methods, the particular class of rotations used has no special qualitative relevance in this context, since looking for interestingness is not a critical issue for PDF estimation. The key difference is that our approach focuses on the univariate part (marginal Gaussianization) of the problem rather than on the multivariate part (rotation). This difference implies that one may select the most convenient rotation suited to each practical application. The differentiability, invertibility and convergence of RBIG are theoretically and experimentally analyzed. Relation to other methods, such as Radial Gaussianization (RG), one-class support vector domain description (SVDD), and deep neural networks (DNN) is also pointed out. The practical performance of RBIG is successfully illustrated in a number of multidimensional problems such as image synthesis, classification, denoising, and multi-information estimation.

A successful class of image denoising methods is based on Bayesian approaches working in wavelet representations. However, analytical estimates can be obtained only for particular combinations of analytical models of signal and noise, thus precluding its straightforward extension to deal with other arbitrary noise sources. In this paper, we propose an alternative non-explicit way to take into account the relations among natural image wavelet coefficients for denoising: we use support vector regression (SVR) in the wavelet domain to enforce these relations in the estimated signal. Since relations among the coefficients are specific to the signal, the regularization property of SVR is exploited to remove the noise, which does not share this feature. The specific signal relations are encoded in an anisotropic kernel obtained from mutual information measures computed on a representative image database. Training considers minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD) between the estimated and actual probability functions of signal and noise in order to enforce similarity. Due to its non-parametric nature, the method can eventually cope with different noise sources without the need of an explicit re-formulation, as it is strictly necessary under parametric Bayesian formalisms. Results under several noise levels and noise sources show that: (1) the proposed method outperforms conventional wavelet methods that assume coefficient independence, (2) it is similar to state-of-the-art methods that do explicitly include these relations when the noise source is Gaussian, and (3) it gives better numerical and visual performance when more complex, realistic noise sources are considered. Therefore, the proposed machine learning approach can be seen as a more flexible (model-free) alternative to the explicit description of wavelet coefficient relations for image denoising.

The bipartite record linkage task consists of merging two disparate datafiles containing information on two overlapping sets of entities. This is non-trivial in the absence of unique identifiers and it is important for a wide variety of applications given that it needs to be solved whenever we have to combine information from different sources. Most statistical techniques currently used for record linkage are derived from a seminal paper by Fellegi and Sunter (1969). These techniques usually assume independence in the matching statuses of record pairs to derive estimation procedures and optimal point estimators. We argue that this independence assumption is unreasonable and instead target a bipartite matching between the two datafiles as our parameter of interest. Bayesian implementations allow us to quantify uncertainty on the matching decisions and derive a variety of point estimators using different loss functions. We propose partial Bayes estimates that allow uncertain parts of the bipartite matching to be left unresolved. We evaluate our approach to record linkage using a variety of challenging scenarios and show that it outperforms the traditional methodology. We illustrate the advantages of our methods merging two datafiles on casualties from the civil war of El Salvador.

Continuous time Bayesian networks are investigated with a special focus on their ability to express causality. A framework is presented for doing inference in these networks. The central contributions are a representation of the intensity matrices for the networks and the introduction of a causality measure. A new model for high-frequency financial data is presented. It is calibrated to market data and by the new causality measure it performs better than older models.

We study the problem of recovering a hidden community of cardinality $K$ from an $n \times n$ symmetric data matrix $A$, where for distinct indices $i,j$, $A_{ij} \sim P$ if $i, j$ both belong to the community and $A_{ij} \sim Q$ otherwise, for two known probability distributions $P$ and $Q$ depending on $n$. If $P={\rm Bern}(p)$ and $Q={\rm Bern}(q)$ with $p>q$, it reduces to the problem of finding a densely-connected $K$-subgraph planted in a large Erd\"os-R\'enyi graph; if $P=\mathcal{N}(\mu,1)$ and $Q=\mathcal{N}(0,1)$ with $\mu>0$, it corresponds to the problem of locating a $K \times K$ principal submatrix of elevated means in a large Gaussian random matrix. We focus on two types of asymptotic recovery guarantees as $n \to \infty$: (1) weak recovery: expected number of classification errors is $o(K)$; (2) exact recovery: probability of classifying all indices correctly converges to one. Under mild assumptions on $P$ and $Q$, and allowing the community size to scale sublinearly with $n$, we derive a set of sufficient conditions and a set of necessary conditions for recovery, which are asymptotically tight with sharp constants. The results hold in particular for the Gaussian case, and for the case of bounded log likelihood ratio, including the Bernoulli case whenever $\frac{p}{q}$ and $\frac{1-p}{1-q}$ are bounded away from zero and infinity. An important algorithmic implication is that, whenever exact recovery is information theoretically possible, any algorithm that provides weak recovery when the community size is concentrated near $K$ can be upgraded to achieve exact recovery in linear additional time by a simple voting procedure.