Knowledge compilation has been successfully used to solve beyond NP problems, including some PP-complete and NP PP -complete problems for Bayesian networks. In this work we show how knowledge compilation can be used to solve problems in the more intractable complexity class PP^PP.  This class contains NP PP and includes interesting AI problems, such as non-myopic value of information. We show how to solve the prototypical PP PP -complete problem MajMajsat in linear-time once the problem instance is compiled into a special class of Sentential Decision Diagrams. To show the practical value of our approach, we adapt it to answer the Same-Decision Probability (SDP) query, which was recently introduced for Bayesian networks. The SDP problem is also PP PP P-complete. It is a value-of-information query that quantifies the robustness of threshold-based decisions and comes with a corresponding algorithm that was also recently proposed. We present favorable experimental results, comparing our new algorithm based on knowledge compilation with the state-of-the-art algorithm for computing the SDP.

Subjective opinions can represent uncertain probabilistic information of any kind, minor or major A Bayesian network (BN) is a compact representation of a imprecision and even total ignorance about the probability joint probability distribution in the form of a directed acyclic distribution, by varying the uncertainty mass between 0 and graph (DAG) with random variables as nodes, and a set 1. By simply substituting every input conditional probability of conditional probability distributions associated with each distribution in a BN with a subjective opinion, we obtain node representing the probabilistic connection of the node what we call a subjective Bayesian network.

Within the framework of probably approximately correct Markov decision processes (PAC-MDP), much theoretical work has focused on methods to attain near optimality after a relatively long period of learning and exploration. However, practical concerns require the attainment of satisfactory behavior within a short period of time. In this paper, we relax the PAC-MDP conditions to reconcile theoretically driven exploration methods and practical needs. We propose simple algorithms for discrete and continuous state spaces, and illustrate the benefits of our proposed relaxation via theoretical analyses and numerical examples. Our algorithms also maintain anytime error bounds and average loss bounds. Our approach accommodates both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods.

Most human behaviors consist of multiple parts, steps, or subtasks. These structures guide our ac- tion planning and execution, but when we observe others, the latent structure of their actions is typ- ically unobservable, and must be inferred in order to learn new skills by demonstration, or to as- sist others in completing their tasks. For example, an assistant who has learned the subgoal struc- ture of a colleague’s task can more rapidly rec- ognize and support their actions as they unfold. Here we model how humans infer subgoals from observations of complex action sequences using a nonparametric Bayesian model, which assumes that observed actions are generated by approxi- mately rational planning over unknown subgoal sequences. We test this model with a behavioral experiment in which humans observed different se- ries of goal-directed actions, and inferred both the number and composition of the subgoal sequences associated with each goal. The Bayesian model predicts human subgoal inferences with high ac- curacy, and significantly better than several al- ternative models and straightforward heuristics. Motivated by this result, we simulate how learn- ing and inference of subgoals can improve perfor- mance in an artificial user assistance task. The Bayesian model learns the correct subgoals from fewer observations, and better assists users by more rapidly and accurately inferring the goal of their actions than alternative approaches.

We present a discriminative nonparametric latent feature relational model (LFRM) for link prediction to automatically infer the dimensionality of latent features. Under the generic RegBayes (regularized Bayesian inference) framework, we handily incorporate the prediction loss with probabilistic inference of a Bayesian model; set distinct regularization parameters for different types of links to handle the imbalance issue in real networks; and unify the analysis of both the smooth logistic log-loss and the piecewise linear hinge loss. For the nonconjugate posterior inference, we present a simple Gibbs sampler via data augmentation, without making restricting assumptions as done in variational methods. We further develop an approximate sampler using stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics to handle large networks with hundreds of thousands of entities and millions of links, orders of magnitude larger than what existing LFRM models can process. Extensive studies on various real networks show promising performance.

Active learning seeks to train the best classifier at the lowest annotation cost by intelligently picking the best examples to label. Traditional algorithms assume there is a single annotator and disregard the possibility of requesting additional independent annotations for a previously labeled example. However, relabeling examples is important, because all annotators make mistakes — especially crowdsourced workers, who have become a common source of training data. This paper seeks to understand the difference in marginal value between decreasing the noise of the training set via relabeling and increasing the size and diversity of the (noisier) training set by labeling new examples. We use the term re-active learning to denote this generalization of active learning. We show how traditional active learning methods perform poorly at re-active learning, present new algorithms designed for this important problem, formally characterize their behavior, and empirically show that our methods effectively make this tradeoff.

Detection of overlapping communities has drawn much attention lately as they are essential properties of real complex networks. Despite its influence and popularity, the well studied and widely adopted stochastic model has not been made effective for finding overlapping communities. Here we extend the stochastic model method to detection of overlapping communities with the virtue of autonomous determination of the number of communities. Our approach hinges upon the idea of ranking node popularities within communities and using a Bayesian method to shrink communities to optimize an objective function based on the stochastic generative model. We evaluated the novel approach, showing its superior performance over five state-of-the-art methods, on large real networks and synthetic networks with ground-truths of overlapping communities.

The analysis of interactions between social media and traditional news streams is becoming increasingly relevant for a variety of applications, including: understanding the underlying factors that drive the evolution of data sources, tracking the triggers behind events, and discovering emerging trends.Researchers have explored such interactions by examining volume changes or information diffusions,however, most of them ignore the semantical and topical relationships between news and social media data.Our work is the first attempt to study how news influences social media, or inversely, based on topical knowledge.We propose a hierarchical Bayesian model that jointly models the news and social media topics and their interactions.We show that our proposed model can capture distinct topics for individual datasets as well as discover the topic influences among multiple datasets.By applying our model to large sets of news and tweets, we demonstrate its significant improvement over baseline methods and explore its power in the discovery of interesting patterns for real world cases.

Continuous Time Bayesian Networks (CTBNs) provide a powerful means to model complex network dynamics. How- ever, their inference is computationally demanding — especially if one considers incomplete and noisy time-series data. The latter gives rise to a joint state- and parameter estimation problem, which can only be solved numerically. Yet, finding the exact parameterization of the CTBN has often only secondary importance in practical scenarios. We therefore focus on the structure learning problem and present a way to analytically marginalize the Markov chain underlying the CTBN model with respect its parameters. Since the resulting stochastic process is parameter-free, its inference reduces to an optimal filtering problem. We solve the latter using an efficient parallel implementation of a sequential Monte Carlo scheme. Our framework enables CTBN inference to be applied to incomplete noisy time-series data frequently found in molecular biology and other disciplines.

Modeling document structure is of great importance for discourse analysis and related applications. The goal of this research is to capture the document intent structure by modeling documents as a mixture of topic words and rhetorical words. While the topics are relatively unchanged through one document, the rhetorical functions of sentences usually change following certain orders in discourse. We propose GMM-LDA, a topic modeling based Bayesian unsupervised model, to analyze the document intent structure cooperated with order information. Our model is flexible that has the ability to combine the annotations and do supervised learning. Additionally, entropic regularization can be introduced to model the significant divergence between topics and intents. We perform experiments in both unsupervised and supervised settings, results show the superiority of our model over several state-of-the-art baselines.