Electronic Health Records (EHRs) have been increasingly used as real-world evidence (RWE) to support the discovery and validation of new drug indications. This paper surveys current approaches to EHR-based drug repurposing, covering data sources, processing methodologies, and representation techniques. It discusses study designs and statistical frameworks for evaluating drug efficacy. Key challenges in validation are discussed, with emphasis on the role of large language models (LLMs) and target trial emulation. By synthesizing recent developments and methodological advances, this work provides a foundational resource for researchers aiming to translate real-world data into actionable drug-repurposing evidence.

We propose a semiparametric Bayesian methodology for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) within the potential outcomes framework using observational data with high-dimensional nuisance parameters. Our method introduces a Bayesian debiasing procedure that corrects for bias arising from nuisance estimation and employs a targeted modeling strategy based on summary statistics rather than the full data. These summary statistics are identified in a debiased manner, enabling the estimation of nuisance bias via weighted observables and facilitating hierarchical learning of the ATE. By combining debiasing with sample splitting, our approach separates nuisance estimation from inference on the target parameter, reducing sensitivity to nuisance model specification. We establish that, under mild conditions, the marginal posterior for the ATE satisfies a Bernstein-von Mises theorem when both nuisance models are correctly specified and remains consistent and robust when only one is correct, achieving Bayesian double robustness. This ensures asymptotic efficiency and frequentist validity. Extensive simulations confirm the theoretical results, demonstrating accurate point estimation and credible intervals with nominal coverage, even in high-dimensional settings. The proposed framework can also be extended to other causal estimands, and its key principles offer a general foundation for advancing Bayesian semiparametric inference more broadly.

We introduce a new low-noise condition for classification, the Model Margin Noise (MM noise) assumption, and derive enhanced $\mathcal{H}$-consistency bounds under this condition. MM noise is weaker than Tsybakov noise condition: it is implied by Tsybakov noise condition but can hold even when Tsybakov fails, because it depends on the discrepancy between a given hypothesis and the Bayes-classifier rather than on the intrinsic distributional minimal margin (see Figure 1 for an illustration of an explicit example). This hypothesis-dependent assumption yields enhanced $\mathcal{H}$-consistency bounds for both binary and multi-class classification. Our results extend the enhanced $\mathcal{H}$-consistency bounds of Mao, Mohri, and Zhong (2025a) with the same favorable exponents but under a weaker assumption than the Tsybakov noise condition; they interpolate smoothly between linear and square-root regimes for intermediate noise levels. We also instantiate these bounds for common surrogate loss families and provide illustrative tables.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Incentive mechanisms for crowdsourcing are designed to incentivize financially self-interested workers to generate and report high-quality labels. Existing mechanisms are often developed as one-shot static solutions, assuming a certain level of knowledge about worker models (expertise levels, costs for exerting efforts, etc.). In this paper, we propose a novel inference aided reinforcement mechanism that acquires data sequentially and requires no such prior assumptions. Specifically, we first design a Gibbs sampling augmented Bayesian inference algorithm to estimate workers' labeling strategies from the collected labels at each step. Then we propose a reinforcement incentive learning (RIL) method, building on top of the above estimates, to uncover how workers respond to different payments. RIL dynamically determines the payment without accessing any ground-truth labels. We theoretically prove that RIL is able to incentivize rational workers to provide high-quality labels both at each step and in the long run. Empirical results show that our mechanism performs consistently well under both rational and non-fully rational (adaptive learning) worker models. Besides, the payments offered by RIL are more robust and have lower variances compared to existing one-shot mechanisms.

Bayesian learning is built on an assumption that the model space contains a true reflection of the data generating mechanism. This assumption is problematic, particularly in complex data environments. Here we present a Bayesian nonparametric approach to learning that makes use of statistical models, but does not assume that the model is true. Our approach has provably better properties than using a parametric model and admits a Monte Carlo sampling scheme that can afford massive scalability on modern computer architectures. The model-based aspect of learning is particularly attractive for regularizing nonparametric inference when the sample size is small, and also for correcting approximate approaches such as variational Bayes (VB). We demonstrate the approach on a number of examples including VB classifiers and Bayesian random forests.

We present the very first robust Bayesian Online Changepoint Detection algorithm through General Bayesian Inference (GBI) with $\beta$-divergences. The resulting inference procedure is doubly robust for both the predictive and the changepoint (CP) posterior, with linear time and constant space complexity. We provide a construction for exponential models and demonstrate it on the Bayesian Linear Regression model. In so doing, we make two additional contributions: Firstly, we make GBI scalable using Structural Variational approximations that are exact as $\beta \to 0$. Secondly, we give a principled way of choosing the divergence parameter $\beta$ by minimizing expected predictive loss on-line.

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an important methodology for Bayesian inference when the likelihood function is intractable. Sampling-based ABC algorithms such as rejection-and K2-ABC are inefficient when the parameters have high dimensions, while the regression-based algorithms such as K-and DR-ABC are hard to scale. In this paper, we introduce an optimization-based ABC framework that addresses these deficiencies. Leveraging a generative model for posterior and joint distribution matching, we show that ABC can be framed as saddle point problems, whose objectives can be accessed directly with samples. We present the predictive ABC algorithm (P-ABC), and provide a probabilistically approximately correct (PAC) bound that guarantees its learning consistency. Numerical experiment shows that P-ABC outperforms both K2-and DR-ABC significantly.

Causal discovery from empirical data is a fundamental problem in many scientific domains. Observational data allows for identifiability only up to Markov equivalence class. In this paper we first propose a polynomial time algorithm for learning the exact correctly-oriented structure of the transitive reduction of any causal Bayesian network with high probability, by using interventional path queries. Each path query takes as input an origin node and a target node, and answers whether there is a directed path from the origin to the target. This is done by intervening on the origin node and observing samples from the target node. We theoretically show the logarithmic sample complexity for the size of interventional data per path query, for continuous and discrete networks. We then show how to learn the transitive edges using also logarithmic sample complexity (albeit in time exponential in the maximum number of parents for discrete networks), which allows us to learn the full network. We further extend our work by reducing the number of interventional path queries for learning rooted trees. We also provide an analysis of imperfect interventions.

Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) has become a popular method for scalable Bayesian inference. These methods are based on sampling a discrete-time approximation to a continuous time process, such as the Langevin diffusion. When applied to distributions defined on a constrained space the time-discretization error can dominate when we are near the boundary of the space. We demonstrate that because of this, current SGMCMC methods for the simplex struggle with sparse simplex spaces; when many of the components are close to zero. Unfortunately, many popular large-scale Bayesian models, such as network or topic models, require inference on sparse simplex spaces. To avoid the biases caused by this discretization error, we propose the stochastic Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process (SCIR), which removes all discretization error and we prove that samples from the SCIR process are asymptotically unbiased. We discuss how this idea can be extended to target other constrained spaces. Use of the SCIR process within a SGMCMC algorithm is shown to give substantially better performance for a topic model and a Dirichlet process mixture model than existing SGMCMC approaches.