If you enjoyed Jesse's presentation at ODSC's last Boston Big Data Conference come to ODSC East this May to hear out his colleagues. Rather than start with the statement of Bayes' Theorem, I want to use an old math teacher trick (which I realize many students hate) of trying to derive it from scratch, without stating what we're trying to derive. Rather, we'll start by modifying a problem that I described in an earlier post on probability distributions1. Bayes' gives you a way of determining the probability that a given event will occur, or that a given condition is true, given your knowledge of another related event or condition. All the examples that I've read or heard about seemed somewhat contrived and unrelated to the sorts of data analysis I was interested in.

We consider the problem of modeling temporal textual data taking endogenous and exogenous processes into account. Such text documents arise in real world applications, including job advertisements and economic news articles, which are influenced by the fluctuations of the general economy. We propose a hierarchical Bayesian topic model which imposes a "group-correlated" hierarchical structure on the evolution of topics over time incorporating both processes, and show that this model can be estimated from Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods. We further demonstrate that this model captures the intrinsic relationships between the topic distribution and the time-dependent factors, and compare its performance with latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) and two other related models. The model is applied to two collections of documents to illustrate its empirical performance: online job advertisements from DirectEmployers Association and journalists' postings on BusinessInsider.com.

Subjective opinions can represent uncertain probabilistic information of any kind, minor or major A Bayesian network (BN) is a compact representation of a imprecision and even total ignorance about the probability joint probability distribution in the form of a directed acyclic distribution, by varying the uncertainty mass between 0 and graph (DAG) with random variables as nodes, and a set 1. By simply substituting every input conditional probability of conditional probability distributions associated with each distribution in a BN with a subjective opinion, we obtain node representing the probabilistic connection of the node what we call a subjective Bayesian network.

Knowledge compilation has been successfully used to solve beyond NP problems, including some PP-complete and NP PP -complete problems for Bayesian networks. In this work we show how knowledge compilation can be used to solve problems in the more intractable complexity class PP^PP.  This class contains NP PP and includes interesting AI problems, such as non-myopic value of information. We show how to solve the prototypical PP PP -complete problem MajMajsat in linear-time once the problem instance is compiled into a special class of Sentential Decision Diagrams. To show the practical value of our approach, we adapt it to answer the Same-Decision Probability (SDP) query, which was recently introduced for Bayesian networks. The SDP problem is also PP PP P-complete. It is a value-of-information query that quantifies the robustness of threshold-based decisions and comes with a corresponding algorithm that was also recently proposed. We present favorable experimental results, comparing our new algorithm based on knowledge compilation with the state-of-the-art algorithm for computing the SDP.

We provide new insights into the area of combining abstract argumentation frameworks with probabilistic reasoning. In particular, we consider the scenario when assessments on the probabilities of a subset of the arguments is given and the probabilities of the remaining arguments have to be derived, taking both the topology of the argumentation framework and principles of probabilistic reasoning into account. We generalize this scenario by also considering inconsistent assessments, i.e., assessments that contradict the topology of the argumentation framework. Building on approaches to inconsistency measurement, we present a general framework to measure the amount of conflict of these assessments and provide a method for inconsistent-tolerant reasoning.

Instead of using a uniform metric, instance specific distance learning methods assign multiple metrics for different localities, which take data heterogeneity into consideration. Therefore, they may improve the performance of distance based classifiers, e.g., kNN. Existing methods obtain multiple metrics of test data by either transductively assigning metrics for unlabeled instances or designing distance functions manually, which are with limited generalization ability. In this paper, we propose isMets (Instance Specific METric Subspace) framework which can automatically span the whole metric space in a generative manner and is able to inductively learn a specific metric subspace for each instance via inferring the expectation over the metric bases in a Bayesian manner. The whole framework can be solved with Variational Bayes (VB). Experiment on synthetic data shows that the learned results are with good interpretability. Moreover, comprehensive results on real world datasets validate the effectiveness and robustness of isMets.

We propose Bayesian AutoEncoder (BAE) in order to construct a recognition system which uses feedback information. BAE constructs a generative model of input data as a Bayes Net. The network trained by BAE obtains its hidden variables as the features of given data. It can execute inference for each variable through belief propagation, using both feedforward and feedback information. We confirmed that BAE can construct small networks with one hidden layer and extract features as hidden variables from 3x3 and 5x5 pixel input data.

We present a new perspective on the classical shortest path routing (SPR) problem in graphs. We show that the SPR problem can be recast to that of probabilistic inference in a mixture of simple Bayesian networks. Maximizing the likelihood in this mixture becomes equivalent to solving the SPR problem. We develop the well known Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for the SPR problem that maximizes the likelihood, and show that it does not get stuck in a locally optimal solution. Using the same probabilistic framework, we then address an NP-Hard network design problem where the goal is to repair a network of roads post some disaster within a fixed budget such that the connectivity between a set of nodes is optimized. We show that our likelihood maximization approach using the EM algorithm scales well for this problem taking the form of message-passing among nodes of the graph, and provides significantly better quality solutions than a standard mixed-integer programming solver.

Most human behaviors consist of multiple parts, steps, or subtasks. These structures guide our ac- tion planning and execution, but when we observe others, the latent structure of their actions is typ- ically unobservable, and must be inferred in order to learn new skills by demonstration, or to as- sist others in completing their tasks. For example, an assistant who has learned the subgoal struc- ture of a colleague’s task can more rapidly rec- ognize and support their actions as they unfold. Here we model how humans infer subgoals from observations of complex action sequences using a nonparametric Bayesian model, which assumes that observed actions are generated by approxi- mately rational planning over unknown subgoal sequences. We test this model with a behavioral experiment in which humans observed different se- ries of goal-directed actions, and inferred both the number and composition of the subgoal sequences associated with each goal. The Bayesian model predicts human subgoal inferences with high ac- curacy, and significantly better than several al- ternative models and straightforward heuristics. Motivated by this result, we simulate how learn- ing and inference of subgoals can improve perfor- mance in an artificial user assistance task. The Bayesian model learns the correct subgoals from fewer observations, and better assists users by more rapidly and accurately inferring the goal of their actions than alternative approaches.

In this paper, we propose a novel similarity measure and then introduce an efficient strategy to learn it by using only similar pairs for person verification. Unlike existing metric learning methods, we consider both the difference and commonness of an image pair to increase its discriminativeness. Under a pairconstrained Gaussian assumption, we show how to obtain the Gaussian priors (i.e., corresponding covariance matrices) of dissimilar pairs from those of similar pairs. The application of a log likelihood ratio makes the learning process simple and fast and thus scalable to large datasets. Additionally, our method is able to handle heterogeneous data well. Results on the challenging datasets of face verification (LFW and Pub-Fig) and person re-identification (VIPeR) show that our algorithm outperforms the state-of-the-art methods.