So you know the Bayes rule. How does it relate to machine learning? It can be quite difficult to grasp how the puzzle pieces fit together - we know it took us a while. This article is an introduction we wish we had back then. While we have some grasp on the matter, we're not experts, so the following might contain inaccuracies or even outright errors. Feel free to point them out, either in the comments or privately.

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a framework for performing likelihood-free posterior inference for simulation models. Stochastic Variational inference (SVI) is an appealing alternative to the inefficient sampling approaches commonly used in ABC. However, SVI is highly sensitive to the variance of the gradient estimators, and this problem is exacerbated by approximating the likelihood. We draw upon recent advances in variance reduction for SV and likelihood-free inference using deterministic simulations to produce low variance gradient estimators of the variational lower-bound. By then exploiting automatic differentiation libraries we can avoid nearly all model-specific derivations. We demonstrate performance on three problems and compare to existing SVI algorithms. Our results demonstrate the correctness and efficiency of our algorithm.

We consider the inverse problem of reconstructing the posterior measure over the trajec- tories of a diffusion process from discrete time observations and continuous time constraints. We cast the problem in a Bayesian framework and derive approximations to the posterior distributions of single time marginals using variational approximate inference. We then show how the approximation can be extended to a wide class of discrete-state Markov jump pro- cesses by making use of the chemical Langevin equation. Our empirical results show that the proposed method is computationally efficient and provides good approximations for these classes of inverse problems.

We develop a flexible framework for low-rank matrix estimation that allows us to transform noise models into regularization schemes via a simple bootstrap algorithm. Effectively, our procedure seeks an autoencoding basis for the observed matrix that is stable with respect to the specified noise model; we call the resulting procedure a stable autoencoder. In the simplest case, with an isotropic noise model, our method is equivalent to a classical singular value shrinkage estimator. For non-isotropic noise models, e.g., Poisson noise, the method does not reduce to singular value shrinkage, and instead yields new estimators that perform well in experiments. Moreover, by iterating our stable autoencoding scheme, we can automatically generate low-rank estimates without specifying the target rank as a tuning parameter.

Data mining is everywhere, but its story starts many years before Moneyball and Edward Snowden. The following are major milestones and "firsts" in the history of data mining plus how it's evolved and blended with data science and big data. Data mining is the computational process of exploring and uncovering patterns in large data sets a.k.a. It is fundamental to data mining and probability, since it allows understanding of complex realities based on estimated probabilities. The goal of regression analysis is to estimate the relationships among variables, and the specific method they used in this case is the method of least squares.

This book is very easy to read and understand. Unlike Hastie's Statistical Learning book, it is not geared towards those with an expert level knowledge of statistics, and instead takes time to explain functions and formulas for the person with a decent but not extrordinary understanding of statistical/math concepts. For example, their description of a Gaussian was the clearest I've seen. On the other hand, if you're math/statistics background is considerable, you may find this book somewhat simplistic or tedious. The book has a good coverage of techniques and algorithms, although I was somewhat disappointed that they do not mention Influence Diagrams, considering the amount of coverage of both decision trees and Bayesian techniques.

This paper proposes a novel dynamic Hierarchical Dirichlet Process topic model that considers the dependence between successive observations. Conventional posterior inference algorithms for this kind of models require processing of the whole data through several passes. It is computationally intractable for massive or sequential data. We design the batch and online inference algorithms, based on the Gibbs sampling, for the proposed model. It allows to process sequential data, incrementally updating the model by a new observation. The model is applied to abnormal behaviour detection in video sequences. A new abnormality measure is proposed for decision making. The proposed method is compared with the method based on the non- dynamic Hierarchical Dirichlet Process, for which we also derive the online Gibbs sampler and the abnormality measure. The results with synthetic and real data show that the consideration of the dynamics in a topic model improves the classification performance for abnormal behaviour detection.

Mixture model-based clustering has become an increasingly popular data analysis technique since its introduction fifty years ago, and is now commonly utilized within the family setting. Families of mixture models arise when the component parameters, usually the component covariance matrices, are decomposed and a number of constraints are imposed. Within the family setting, we need to choose the member of the family, i.e., the appropriate covariance structure, in addition to the number of mixture components. To date, the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) has proved most effective for model selection, and the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is usually used for parameter estimation. To date, this EM-BIC rubric has monopolized the literature on families of mixture models. We deviate from this rubric, using variational Bayes approximations for parameter estimation and the deviance information criterion for model selection. The variational Bayes approach alleviates some of the computational complexities associated with the EM algorithm by constructing a tight lower bound on the complex marginal likelihood and maximizing this lower bound by minimizing the associated Kullback-Leibler divergence. We use this approach on the most famous family of Gaussian mixture models within the literature and real and simulated data are used to compare our approach to the EM-BIC rubric.

When observations are organized into groups where commonalties exist amongst them, the dependent random measures can be an ideal choice for modeling. One of the propositions of the dependent random measures is that the atoms of the posterior distribution are shared amongst groups, and hence groups can borrow information from each other. When normalized dependent random measures prior with independent increments are applied, we can derive appropriate exchangeable probability partition function (EPPF), and subsequently also deduce its inference algorithm given any mixture model likelihood. We provide all necessary derivation and solution to this framework. For demonstration, we used mixture of Gaussians likelihood in combination with a dependent structure constructed by linear combinations of CRMs. Our experiments show superior performance when using this framework, where the inferred values including the mixing weights and the number of clusters both respond appropriately to the number of completely random measure used.

We consider a group of Bayesian agents who try to estimate a state of the world $\theta$ through interaction on a social network. Each agent $v$ initially receives a private measurement of $\theta$: a number $S_v$ picked from a Gaussian distribution with mean $\theta$ and standard deviation one. Then, in each discrete time iteration, each reveals its estimate of $\theta$ to its neighbors, and, observing its neighbors' actions, updates its belief using Bayes' Law. This process aggregates information efficiently, in the sense that all the agents converge to the belief that they would have, had they access to all the private measurements. We show that this process is computationally efficient, so that each agent's calculation can be easily carried out. We also show that on any graph the process converges after at most $2N \cdot D$ steps, where $N$ is the number of agents and $D$ is the diameter of the network. Finally, we show that on trees and on distance transitive-graphs the process converges after $D$ steps, and that it preserves privacy, so that agents learn very little about the private signal of most other agents, despite the efficient aggregation of information. Our results extend those in an unpublished manuscript of the first and last authors.