This work investigates the case of a network of agents that attempt to learn some unknown state of the world amongst the finitely many possibilities. At each time step, agents all receive random, independently distributed private signals whose distributions are dependent on the unknown state of the world. However, it may be the case that some or any of the agents cannot distinguish between two or more of the possible states based only on their private observations, as when several states result in the same distribution of the private signals. In our model, the agents form some initial belief (probability distribution) about the unknown state and then refine their beliefs in accordance with their private observations, as well as the beliefs of their neighbors. An agent learns the unknown state when her belief converges to a point mass that is concentrated at the true state. A rational agent would use the Bayes' rule to incorporate her neighbors' beliefs and own private signals over time. While such repeated applications of the Bayes' rule in networks can become computationally intractable, in this paper, we show that in the canonical cases of directed star, circle or path networks and their combinations, one can derive a class of memoryless update rules that replicate that of a single Bayesian agent but replace the self beliefs with the beliefs of the neighbors. This way, one can realize an exponentially fast rate of learning similar to the case of Bayesian (fully rational) agents. The proposed rules are a special case of the Learning without Recall.

This paper presents an infinite variational autoencoder (VAE) whose capacity adapts to suit the input data. This is achieved using a mixture model where the mixing coefficients are modeled by a Dirichlet process, allowing us to integrate over the coefficients when performing inference. Critically, this then allows us to automatically vary the number of autoencoders in the mixture based on the data. Experiments show the flexibility of our method, particularly for semi-supervised learning, where only a small number of training samples are available.

We introduce a methodology to construct parsimonious probabilistic models. This method makes use of Information Filtering Networks to produce a robust estimate of the global sparse inverse covariance from a simple sum of local inverse covariances computed on small sub-parts of the network. Being based on local and low-dimensional inversions, this method is computationally very efficient and statistically robust even for the estimation of inverse covariance of high-dimensional, noisy and short time-series. Applied to financial data our method results computationally more efficient than state-of-the-art methodologies such as Glasso producing, in a fraction of the computation time, models that can have equivalent or better performances but with a sparser inference structure. We also discuss performances with sparse factor models where we notice that relative performances decrease with the number of factors. The local nature of this approach allows us to perform computations in parallel and provides a tool for dynamical adaptation by partial updating when the properties of some variables change without the need of recomputing the whole model. This makes this approach particularly suitable to handle big datasets with large numbers of variables. Examples of practical application for forecasting, stress testing and risk allocation in financial systems are also provided.

We present the Wright-Fisher Indian buffet process (WF-IBP), a probabilistic model for time-dependent data assumed to have been generated by an unknown number of latent features. This model is suitable as a prior in Bayesian nonparametric feature allocation models in which the features underlying the observed data exhibit a dependency structure over time. More specifically, we establish a new framework for generating dependent Indian buffet processes, where the Poisson random field model from population genetics is used as a way of constructing dependent beta processes. Inference in the model is complex, and we describe a sophisticated Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm for exact posterior simulation. We apply our construction to develop a nonparametric focused topic model for collections of time-stamped text documents and test it on the full corpus of NIPS papers published from 1987 to 2015.

We consider the problem of estimating the expected value of information (the knowledge gradient) for Bayesian learning problems where the belief model is nonlinear in the parameters. Our goal is to maximize some metric, while simultaneously learning the unknown parameters of the nonlinear belief model, by guiding a sequential experimentation process which is expensive. We overcome the problem of computing the expected value of an experiment, which is computationally intractable, by using a sampled approximation, which helps to guide experiments but does not provide an accurate estimate of the unknown parameters. We then introduce a resampling process which allows the sampled model to adapt to new information, exploiting past experiments. We show theoretically that the method converges asymptotically to the true parameters, while simultaneously maximizing our metric. We show empirically that the process exhibits rapid convergence, yielding good results with a very small number of experiments.

We study, to the best of our knowledge, the first Bayesian algorithm for unimodal Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) problems with graph structure. In this setting, each arm corresponds to a node of a graph and each edge provides a relationship, unknown to the learner, between two nodes in terms of expected reward. Furthermore, for any node of the graph there is a path leading to the unique node providing the maximum expected reward, along which the expected reward is monotonically increasing. Previous results on this setting describe the behavior of frequentist MAB algorithms. In our paper, we design a Thompson Sampling-based algorithm whose asymptotic pseudo-regret matches the lower bound for the considered setting. We show that--as it happens in a wide number of scenarios--Bayesian MAB algorithms dramatically outperform frequentist ones. In particular, we provide a thorough experimental evaluation of the performance of our and state-of-the-art algorithms as the properties of the graph vary.

Usually one compares the accuracy of two competing classifiers via null hypothesis significance tests (nhst). Yet the nhst tests suffer from important shortcomings, which can be overcome by switching to Bayesian hypothesis testing. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model which jointly analyzes the cross-validation results obtained by two classifiers on multiple data sets. It returns the posterior probability of the accuracies of the two classifiers being practically equivalent or significantly different. A further strength of the hierarchical model is that, by jointly analyzing the results obtained on all data sets, it reduces the estimation error compared to the usual approach of averaging the cross-validation results obtained on a given data set.

Existing methods for structure discovery in time series data construct interpretable, compositional kernels for Gaussian process regression models. While the learned Gaussian process model provides posterior mean and variance estimates, typically the structure is learned via a greedy optimization procedure. This restricts the space of possible solutions and leads to over-confident uncertainty estimates. We introduce a fully Bayesian approach, inferring a full posterior over structures, which more reliably captures the uncertainty of the model.

Experiments that study neural encoding of stimuli at the level of individual neurons typically choose a small set of features present in the world --- contrast and luminance for vision, pitch and intensity for sound --- and assemble a stimulus set that systematically varies along these dimensions. Subsequent analysis of neural responses to these stimuli typically focuses on regression models, with experimenter-controlled features as predictors and spike counts or firing rates as responses. Unfortunately, this approach requires knowledge in advance about the relevant features coded by a given population of neurons. For domains as complex as social interaction or natural movement, however, the relevant feature space is poorly understood, and an arbitrary \emph{a priori} choice of features may give rise to confirmation bias. Here, we present a Bayesian model for exploratory data analysis that is capable of automatically identifying the features present in unstructured stimuli based solely on neuronal responses. Our approach is unique within the class of latent state space models of neural activity in that it assumes that firing rates of neurons are sensitive to multiple discrete time-varying features tied to the \emph{stimulus}, each of which has Markov (or semi-Markov) dynamics. That is, we are modeling neural activity as driven by multiple simultaneous stimulus features rather than intrinsic neural dynamics. We derive a fast variational Bayesian inference algorithm and show that it correctly recovers hidden features in synthetic data, as well as ground-truth stimulus features in a prototypical neural dataset. To demonstrate the utility of the algorithm, we also apply it to cluster neural responses and demonstrate successful recovery of features corresponding to monkeys and faces in the image set.

We present a new notion of probabilistic duality for random variables involving mixture distributions. Using this notion, we show how to implement a highly-parallelizable Gibbs sampler for weakly coupled discrete pairwise graphical models with strictly positive factors that requires almost no preprocessing and is easy to implement. Moreover, we show how our method can be combined with blocking to improve mixing. Even though our method leads to inferior mixing times compared to a sequential Gibbs sampler, we argue that our method is still very useful for large dynamic networks, where factors are added and removed on a continuous basis, as it is hard to maintain a graph coloring in this setup. Similarly, our method is useful for parallelizing Gibbs sampling in graphical models that do not allow for graph colorings with a small number of colors such as densely connected graphs.