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 Bayesian Inference


Big Learning with Bayesian Methods

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Explosive growth in data and availability of cheap computing resources have sparked increasing interest in Big learning, an emerging subfield that studies scalable machine learning algorithms, systems, and applications with Big Data. Bayesian methods represent one important class of statistic methods for machine learning, with substantial recent developments on adaptive, flexible and scalable Bayesian learning. This article provides a survey of the recent advances in Big learning with Bayesian methods, termed Big Bayesian Learning, including nonparametric Bayesian methods for adaptively inferring model complexity, regularized Bayesian inference for improving the flexibility via posterior regularization, and scalable algorithms and systems based on stochastic subsampling and distributed computing for dealing with large-scale applications.


Speeding Up Latent Variable Gaussian Graphical Model Estimation via Nonconvex Optimizations

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the estimation of the latent variable Gaussian graphical model (LVGGM), where the precision matrix is the superposition of a sparse matrix and a low-rank matrix. In order to speed up the estimation of the sparse plus low-rank components, we propose a sparsity constrained maximum likelihood estimator based on matrix factorization, and an efficient alternating gradient descent algorithm with hard thresholding to solve it. Our algorithm is orders of magnitude faster than the convex relaxation based methods for LVGGM. In addition, we prove that our algorithm is guaranteed to linearly converge to the unknown sparse and low-rank components up to the optimal statistical precision. Experiments on both synthetic and genomic data demonstrate the superiority of our algorithm over the state-of-the-art algorithms and corroborate our theory.


Deep Nonparametric Estimation of Discrete Conditional Distributions via Smoothed Dyadic Partitioning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We present an approach to deep estimation of discrete conditional probability distributions. Such models have several applications, including generative modeling of audio, image, and video data. Our approach combines two main techniques: dyadic partitioning and graph-based smoothing of the discrete space. By recursively decomposing each dimension into a series of binary splits and smoothing over the resulting distribution using graph-based trend filtering, we impose a strict structure to the model and achieve much higher sample efficiency. We demonstrate the advantages of our model through a series of benchmarks on both synthetic and real-world datasets, in some cases reducing the error by nearly half in comparison to other popular methods in the literature. All of our models are implemented in Tensorflow and publicly available at https://github.com/tansey/sdp .


Making Tree Ensembles Interpretable: A Bayesian Model Selection Approach

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Tree ensembles, such as random forests and boosted trees, are renowned for their high prediction performance. However, their interpretability is critically limited due to the enormous complexity. In this study, we present a method to make a complex tree ensemble interpretable by simplifying the model. Specifically, we formalize the simplification of tree ensembles as a model selection problem. Given a complex tree ensemble, we aim at obtaining the simplest representation that is essentially equivalent to the original one. To this end, we derive a Bayesian model selection algorithm that optimizes the simplified model while maintaining the prediction performance. Our numerical experiments on several datasets showed that complicated tree ensembles were reasonably approximated as interpretable.


Scalable and Distributed Clustering via Lightweight Coresets

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Coresets are compact representations of data sets such that models trained on a coreset are provably competitive with models trained on the full data set. As such, they have been successfully used to scale up clustering models to massive data sets. While existing approaches generally only allow for multiplicative approximation errors, we propose a novel notion of coresets called lightweight coresets that allows for both multiplicative and additive errors. We provide a single algorithm to construct light-weight coresets for k-Means clustering, Bregman clustering and maximum likelihood estimation of Gaussian mixture models. The algorithm is substantially faster than existing constructions, embarrassingly parallel and resulting coresets are smaller. In an extensive experimental evaluation, we demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms existing coreset constructions.


Learning in Implicit Generative Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Generative adversarial networks (GANs) provide an algorithmic framework for constructing generative models with several appealing properties: they do not require a likelihood function to be specified, only a generating procedure; they provide samples that are sharp and compelling; and they allow us to harness our knowledge of building highly accurate neural network classifiers. Here, we develop our understanding of GANs with the aim of forming a rich view of this growing area of machine learning---to build connections to the diverse set of statistical thinking on this topic, of which much can be gained by a mutual exchange of ideas. We frame GANs within the wider landscape of algorithms for learning in implicit generative models--models that only specify a stochastic procedure with which to generate data--and relate these ideas to modelling problems in related fields, such as econometrics and approximate Bayesian computation. We develop likelihood-free inference methods and highlight hypothesis testing as a principle for learning in implicit generative models, using which we are able to derive the objective function used by GANs, and many other related objectives. The testing viewpoint directs our focus to the general problem of density ratio estimation. There are four approaches for density ratio estimation, one of which is a solution using classifiers to distinguish real from generated data. Other approaches such as divergence minimisation and moment matching have also been explored in the GAN literature, and we synthesise these views to form an understanding in terms of the relationships between them and the wider literature, highlighting avenues for future exploration and cross-pollination.


Stochastic Patching Process

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Stochastic partition models tailor a product space into a number of rectangular regions such that the data within each region exhibit certain types of homogeneity. Due to constraints of partition strategy, existing models may cause unnecessary dissections in sparse regions when fitting data in dense regions. To alleviate this limitation, we propose a parsimonious partition model, named Stochastic Patching Process (SPP), to deal with multi-dimensional arrays. SPP adopts an "enclosing" strategy to attach rectangular patches to dense regions. SPP is self-consistent such that it can be extended to infinite arrays. We apply SPP to relational modeling and the experimental results validate its merit compared to the state-of-the-arts.


Markov Models and Predictive Analytics with Cats

#artificialintelligence

I have been teaching courses on data mining for over 10 years. One of my favorite lectures focuses on the use of Markov Models for predictive analytics. I enjoy giving this lecture because it always triggers interesting reactions from my students. Since the lecture can be used to demonstrate advanced concepts (like Bayesian inference and probabilistic reasoning) as well as basic concepts (like conditional probability and statistical dependence), I use the lecture both in my graduate course and in my freshman class. I start the lecture by telling the students that I will show them how to predict the future with a cat.


Bayesian Boolean Matrix Factorisation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Boolean matrix factorisation aims to decompose a binary data matrix into an approximate Boolean product of two low rank, binary matrices: one containing meaningful patterns, the other quantifying how the observations can be expressed as a combination of these patterns. We introduce the OrMachine, a probabilistic generative model for Boolean matrix factorisation and derive a Metropolised Gibbs sampler that facilitates efficient parallel posterior inference. On real world and simulated data, our method outperforms all currently existing approaches for Boolean matrix factorisation and completion. This is the first method to provide full posterior inference for Boolean Matrix factorisation which is relevant in applications, e.g. for controlling false positive rates in collaborative filtering and, crucially, improves the interpretability of the inferred patterns. The proposed algorithm scales to large datasets as we demonstrate by analysing single cell gene expression data in 1.3 million mouse brain cells across 11 thousand genes on commodity hardware.


Rank-to-engage: New Listwise Approaches to Maximize Engagement

arXiv.org Machine Learning

For many internet businesses, presenting a given list of items in an order that maximizes a certain metric of interest (e.g., click-through-rate, average engagement time etc.) is crucial. We approach the aforementioned task from a learning-to-rank perspective which reveals a new problem setup. In traditional learning-to-rank literature, it is implicitly assumed that during the training data generation one has access to the \emph{best or desired} order for the given list of items. In this work, we consider a problem setup where we do not observe the desired ranking. We present two novel solutions: the first solution is an extension of already existing listwise learning-to-rank technique--Listwise maximum likelihood estimation (ListMLE)--while the second one is a generic machine learning based framework that tackles the problem in its entire generality. We discuss several challenges associated with this generic framework, and propose a simple \emph{item-payoff} and \emph{positional-gain} model that addresses these challenges. We provide training algorithms, inference procedures, and demonstrate the effectiveness of the two approaches over traditional ListMLE on synthetic as well as on real-life setting of ranking news articles for increased dwell time.