Despite the promise of big data, inferences are often limited not by sample size but rather by systematic effects. Only by carefully modeling these effects can we take full advantage of the data--big data must be complemented with big models and the algorithms that can fit them. One such algorithm is Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, which exploits the inherent geometry of the posterior distribution to admit full Bayesian inference that scales to the complex models of practical interest. In this talk I will discuss the theoretical foundations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, elucidating the geometric nature of its scalable performance and stressing the properties critical to a robust implementation. The talk is this Thurs, 6 Apr, 1:10-2:20pm in 303 Mudd Building at Columbia.

As the emergence and the thriving development of social networks, a huge number of short texts are accumulated and need to be processed. Inferring latent topics of collected short texts is useful for understanding its hidden structure and predicting new contents. Unlike conventional topic models such as latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA), a biterm topic model (BTM) was recently proposed for short texts to overcome the sparseness of document-level word co-occurrences by directly modeling the generation process of word pairs. Stochastic inference algorithms based on collapsed Gibbs sampling (CGS) and collapsed variational inference have been proposed for BTM. However, they either require large computational complexity, or rely on very crude estimation. In this work, we develop a stochastic divergence minimization inference algorithm for BTM to estimate latent topics more accurately in a scalable way. Experiments demonstrate the superiority of our proposed algorithm compared with existing inference algorithms.

Artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and robots are the sights and sounds of science fiction books and movies. Isaac Asimov's Three Laws of Robotics, first introduced in the 1942 short story "Runaround," became the backbone for his novel I, Robot and its film adaptation (Figure 1). Although we are still far away from achieving what movie producers and sci-fi writers have envisioned, the state of AI and ML has progressed significantly. AI software has also been in use for decades but advances in ML, including the use of deep neural networks (DNNs), are making headlines in application areas like self-driving cars. The movie I, Robot has robots that should be following Asimov's Three Laws of Robotics.

We address the problem of parameter estimation in models of systems biology from noisy observations. The models we consider are characterized by simultaneous deterministic nonlinear differential equations whose parameters are either taken from in vitro experiments, or are hand-tuned during the model development process to reproduces observations from the system. We consider the family of algorithms coming under the Bayesian formulation of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC), and show that sensitivity analysis could be deployed to quantify the relative roles of different parameters in the system. Parameters to which a system is relatively less sensitive (known as sloppy parameters) need not be estimated to high precision, while the values of parameters that are more critical (stiff parameters) need to be determined with care. A tradeoff between computational complexity and the accuracy with which the posterior distribution may be probed is an important characteristic of this class of algorithms.

Video analytics requires operating with large amounts of data. Compressive sensing allows to reduce the number of measurements required to represent the video using the prior knowledge of sparsity of the original signal, but it imposes certain conditions on the design matrix. The Bayesian compressive sensing approach relaxes the limitations of the conventional approach using the probabilistic reasoning and allows to include different prior knowledge about the signal structure. This paper presents two Bayesian compressive sensing methods for autonomous object detection in a video sequence from a static camera. Their performance is compared on the real datasets with the non-Bayesian greedy algorithm. It is shown that the Bayesian methods can provide the same accuracy as the greedy algorithm but much faster; or if the computational time is not critical they can provide more accurate results.

One of the most challenging tasks when adopting Bayesian Networks (BNs) is the one of learning their structure from data. This task is complicated by the huge search space of possible solutions and turned out to be a well-known NP-hard problem and, hence, approximations are required. However, to the best of our knowledge, a quantitative analysis of the performance and characteristics of the different heuristics to solve this problem has never been done before. For this reason, in this work, we provide a detailed study of the different state-of-the-arts methods for structural learning on simulated data considering both BNs with discrete and continuous variables, and with different rates of noise in the data. In particular, we investigate the characteristics of different widespread scores proposed for the inference and the statistical pitfalls within them.

Learning DAG or Bayesian network models is an important problem in multi-variate causal inference. However, a number of challenges arises in learning large-scale DAG models including model identifiability and computational complexity since the space of directed graphs is huge. In this paper, we address these issues in a number of steps for a broad class of DAG models where the noise or variance is signal-dependent. Firstly we introduce a new class of identifiable DAG models, where each node has a distribution where the variance is a quadratic function of the mean (QVF DAG models). Our QVF DAG models include many interesting classes of distributions such as Poisson, Binomial, Geometric, Exponential, Gamma and many other distributions in which the noise variance depends on the mean. We prove that this class of QVF DAG models is identifiable, and introduce a new algorithm, the OverDispersion Scoring (ODS) algorithm, for learning large-scale QVF DAG models. Our algorithm is based on firstly learning the moralized or undirected graphical model representation of the DAG to reduce the DAG search-space, and then exploiting the quadratic variance property to learn the causal ordering. We show through theoretical results and simulations that our algorithm is statistically consistent in the high-dimensional p>n setting provided that the degree of the moralized graph is bounded and performs well compared to state-of-the-art DAG-learning algorithms.

In this paper a new Bayesian model for sparse linear regression with a spatio-temporal structure is proposed. It incorporates the structural assumptions based on a hierarchical Gaussian process prior for spike and slab coefficients. We design an inference algorithm based on Expectation Propagation and evaluate the model over the real data.

We introduce Fisher consistency in the sense of unbiasedness as a desirable property for estimators of class prior probabilities. Lack of Fisher consistency could be used as a criterion to dismiss estimators that are unlikely to deliver precise estimates in test datasets under prior probability and more general dataset shift. The usefulness of this unbiasedness concept is demonstrated with three examples of classifiers used for quantification: Adjusted Classify & Count, EM-algorithm and CDE-Iterate. We find that Adjusted Classify & Count and EM-algorithm are Fisher consistent. A counter-example shows that CDE-Iterate is not Fisher consistent and, therefore, cannot be trusted to deliver reliable estimates of class probabilities.

The scalable calculation of matrix determinants has been a bottleneck to the widespread application of many machine learning methods such as determinantal point processes, Gaussian processes, generalised Markov random fields, graph models and many others. In this work, we estimate log determinants under the framework of maximum entropy, given information in the form of moment constraints from stochastic trace estimation. The estimates demonstrate a significant improvement on state-of-the-art alternative methods, as shown on a wide variety of UFL sparse matrices. By taking the example of a general Markov random field, we also demonstrate how this approach can significantly accelerate inference in large-scale learning methods involving the log determinant.