Editor's note: The following is an interview with Columbia University Professor Andrew Gelman conducted by Marketing scientist Kevin Gray, in which Gelman spells out the ABCs of Bayesian statistics. Kevin Gray: Most marketing researchers have heard of Bayesian statistics but know little about it. Can you briefly explain in layperson's terms what it is and how it differs from the'ordinary' statistics most of us learned in college? Andrew Gelman: Bayesian statistics uses the mathematical rules of probability to combines data with "prior information" to give inferences which (if the model being used is correct) are more precise than would be obtained by either source of information alone. Classical statistical methods avoid prior distributions.

The work here presented is the result of a semester long independent research performed by Kenny Jones and Derrick Bonafilia (both Williams College 2017) under the guidance of Professor Andrea Danyluk. Kenny and Derrick are both heading to Facebook next year as Software Engineers and hope to continue studying GANs in whatever capacity is available to them. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANS) were introduced by Ian Goodfellow et. GANs address the lack of relative success of deep generative models compared to deep discriminative models. The authors cite the intractable nature of the maximum likelihood estimation that is necessary for most generative models as the reason for this discrepancy.

We present a model for random simple graphs with a degree distribution that obeys a power law (i.e., is heavy-tailed). To attain this behavior, the edge probabilities in the graph are constructed from Bertoin-Fujita-Roynette-Yor (BFRY) random variables, which have been recently utilized in Bayesian statistics for the construction of power law models in several applications. Our construction readily extends to capture the structure of latent factors, similarly to stochastic blockmodels, while maintaining its power law degree distribution. The BFRY random variables are well approximated by gamma random variables in a variational Bayesian inference routine, which we apply to several network datasets for which power law degree distributions are a natural assumption. By learning the parameters of the BFRY distribution via probabilistic inference, we are able to automatically select the appropriate power law behavior from the data. In order to further scale our inference procedure, we adopt stochastic gradient ascent routines where the gradients are computed on minibatches (i.e., subsets) of the edges in the graph.

Contextual bandits are widely used in Internet services from news recommendation to advertising, and to Web search. Generalized linear models (logistical regression in particular) have demonstrated stronger performance than linear models in many applications where rewards are binary. However, most theoretical analyses on contextual bandits so far are on linear bandits. In this work, we propose an upper confidence bound based algorithm for generalized linear contextual bandits, which achieves an $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{dT})$ regret over $T$ rounds with $d$ dimensional feature vectors. This regret matches the minimax lower bound, up to logarithmic terms, and improves on the best previous result by a $\sqrt{d}$ factor, assuming the number of arms is fixed. A key component in our analysis is to establish a new, sharp finite-sample confidence bound for maximum-likelihood estimates in generalized linear models, which may be of independent interest. We also analyze a simpler upper confidence bound algorithm, which is useful in practice, and prove it to have optimal regret for certain cases.

Bayesian probabilistic models provide a nimble and expressive framework for modeling "small-world" data. In contrast, deep learning offers a more rigid yet much more powerful framework for modeling data of massive size. Edward is a probabilistic programming library that bridges this gap: "black-box" variational inference enables us to fit extremely flexible Bayesian models to large-scale data. Furthermore, these models themselves may take advantage of classic deep-learning architectures of arbitrary complexity. Edward uses TensorFlow for symbolic gradients and data flow graphs.

Traditional GANs use a deterministic generator function (typically a neural network) to transform a random noise input $z$ to a sample $\mathbf{x}$ that the discriminator seeks to distinguish. We propose a new GAN called Bayesian Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (BC-GANs) that use a random generator function to transform a deterministic input $y'$ to a sample $\mathbf{x}$. Our BC-GANs extend traditional GANs to a Bayesian framework, and naturally handle unsupervised learning, supervised learning, and semi-supervised learning problems. Experiments show that the proposed BC-GANs outperforms the state-of-the-arts.

In this paper, we propose a general framework for tensor singular value decomposition (tensor SVD), which focuses on the methodology and theory for extracting the hidden low-rank structure from high-dimensional tensor data. Comprehensive results are developed on both the statistical and computational limits for tensor SVD. This problem exhibits three different phases according to the signal-noise-ratio (SNR). In particular, with strong SNR, we show that the classical higher order orthogonal iteration achieves the minimax optimal rate of convergence in estimation; with weak SNR, the information-theoretical lower bound implies that it is impossible to have consistent estimation in general; with moderate SNR, we show that the non-convex maximum likelihood estimation provides optimal solution, but with NP-hard computational cost; moreover, under the hardness hypothesis of hypergraphic planted clique detection, there are no polynomial-time algorithms performing consistently in general.

We consider the problem faced by a service platform that needs to match supply with demand, but also to learn attributes of new arrivals in order to match them better in the future. We introduce a benchmark model with heterogeneous workers and jobs that arrive over time. Job types are known to the platform, but worker types are unknown and must be learned by observing match outcomes. Workers depart after performing a certain number of jobs. The payoff from a match depends on the pair of types and the goal is to maximize the steady-state rate of accumulation of payoff. Our main contribution is a complete characterization of the structure of the optimal policy in the limit that each worker performs many jobs. The platform faces a trade-off for each worker between myopically maximizing payoffs (exploitation) and learning the type of the worker (\emph{exploration}). This creates a multitude of multi-armed bandit problems, one for each worker, coupled together by the constraint on the availability of jobs of different types (capacity constraints). We find that the platform should estimate a shadow price for each job type, and use the payoffs adjusted by these prices, first, to determine its learning goals and then, for each worker, (i) to balance learning with payoffs during the "exploration phase", and (ii) to myopically match after it has achieved its learning goals during the "exploitation phase."

We present a probabilistic framework for overlapping community discovery and link prediction for relational data, given as a graph. The proposed framework has: (1) a deep architecture which enables us to infer multiple layers of latent features/communities for each node, providing superior link prediction performance on more complex networks and better interpretability of the latent features; and (2) a regression model which allows directly conditioning the node latent features on the side information available in form of node attributes. Our framework handles both (1) and (2) via a clean, unified model, which enjoys full local conjugacy via data augmentation, and facilitates efficient inference via closed form Gibbs sampling. Moreover, inference cost scales in the number of edges which is attractive for massive but sparse networks. Our framework is also easily extendable to model weighted networks with count-valued edges. We compare with various state-of-the-art methods and report results, both quantitative and qualitative, on several benchmark data sets.

Many modern data sets are sampled with error from complex high-dimensional surfaces. Methods such as tensor product splines or Gaussian processes are effective/well suited for characterizing a surface in two or three dimensions but may suffer from difficulties when representing higher dimensional surfaces. Motivated by high throughput toxicity testing where observed dose-response curves are cross sections of a surface defined by a chemical's structural properties, a model is developed to characterize this surface to predict untested chemicals' dose-responses. This manuscript proposes a novel approach that models the multidimensional surface as a sum of learned basis functions formed as the tensor product of lower dimensional functions, which are themselves representable by a basis expansion learned from the data. The model is described, a Gibbs sampling algorithm proposed, and is investigated in a simulation study as well as data taken from the US EPA's ToxCast high throughput toxicity testing platform.