Many applications in signal processing require the estimation of some parameters of interest given a set of observed data. More specifically, Bayesian inference needs the computation of {\it a-posteriori} estimators which are often expressed as complicated multi-dimensional integrals. Unfortunately, analytical expressions for these estimators cannot be found in most real-world applications, and Monte Carlo methods are the only feasible approach. A very powerful class of Monte Carlo techniques is formed by the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. They generate a Markov chain such that its stationary distribution coincides with the target posterior density. In this work, we perform a thorough review of MCMC methods using multiple candidates in order to select the next state of the chain, at each iteration. With respect to the classical Metropolis-Hastings method, the use of multiple try techniques foster the exploration of the sample space. We present different Multiple Try Metropolis schemes, Ensemble MCMC methods, Particle Metropolis-Hastings algorithms and the Delayed Rejection Metropolis technique. We highlight limitations, benefits, connections and differences among the different methods, and compare them by numerical simulations.

Independent component analysis (ICA) is a widely used BSS method that can uniquely achieve source recovery, subject to only scaling and permutation ambiguities, through the assumption of statistical independence on the part of the latent sources. Independent vector analysis (IVA) extends the applicability of ICA by jointly decomposing multiple datasets through the exploitation of the dependencies across datasets. Though both ICA and IVA algorithms cast in the maximum likelihood (ML) framework enable the use of all available statistical information in reality, they often deviate from their theoretical optimality properties due to improper estimation of the probability density function (PDF). This motivates the development of flexible ICA and IVA algorithms that closely adhere to the underlying statistical description of the data. Although it is attractive minimize the assumptions, important prior information about the data, such as sparsity, is usually available. If incorporated into the ICA model, use of this additional information can relax the independence assumption, resulting in an improvement in the overall separation performance. Therefore, the development of a unified mathematical framework that can take into account both statistical independence and sparsity is of great interest. In this work, we first introduce a flexible ICA algorithm that uses an effective PDF estimator to accurately capture the underlying statistical properties of the data. We then discuss several techniques to accurately estimate the parameters of the multivariate generalized Gaussian distribution, and how to integrate them into the IVA model. Finally, we provide a mathematical framework that enables direct control over the influence of statistical independence and sparsity, and use this framework to develop an effective ICA algorithm that can jointly exploit these two forms of diversity.

The need to reason about uncertainty in large, complex, and multi-modal datasets has become increasingly common across modern scientific environments. The ability to transform samples from one distribution $P$ to another distribution $Q$ enables the solution to many problems in machine learning (e.g. Bayesian inference, generative modeling) and has been actively pursued from theoretical, computational, and application perspectives across the fields of information theory, computer science, and biology. Performing such transformations , in general, still comprises computational difficulties, especially in high dimensions. Here, we consider the problem of computing such "measure transport maps" with efficient and parallelizable methods. Under the mild assumptions that $P$ need not be known but can be sampled from, that the density of $Q$ is known up to a proportionality constant, and that $Q$ is log-concave, we provide a convex optimization problem pertaining to relative entropy minimization. We show how an empirical minimization formulation and polynomial chaos map parameterization can allow for learning a transport map between $P$ and $Q$ with distributed and scalable methods. We also leverage findings from nonequilibrium thermodynamics to represent the transport map as a composition of simpler maps, each of which is learned sequentially with a transport cost regularized version of the aforementioned problem formulation. We provide examples of our framework within the context of Bayesian inference for the Boston housing dataset, active learning for optimizing human computer interfaces, density estimation for probabilistic sleep staging with EEG, and generative modeling for handwritten digit images from the MNIST dataset.

We consider the problem of estimating a large rank-one tensor ${\boldsymbol u}^{\otimes k}\in({\mathbb R}^{n})^{\otimes k}$, $k\ge 3$ in Gaussian noise. Earlier work characterized a critical signal-to-noise ratio $\lambda_{Bayes}= O(1)$ above which an ideal estimator achieves strictly positive correlation with the unknown vector of interest. Remarkably no polynomial-time algorithm is known that achieved this goal unless $\lambda\ge C n^{(k-2)/4}$ and even powerful semidefinite programming relaxations appear to fail for $1\ll \lambda\ll n^{(k-2)/4}$. In order to elucidate this behavior, we consider the maximum likelihood estimator, which requires maximizing a degree-$k$ homogeneous polynomial over the unit sphere in $n$ dimensions. We compute the expected number of critical points and local maxima of this objective function and show that it is exponential in the dimensions $n$, and give exact formulas for the exponential growth rate. We show that (for $\lambda$ larger than a constant) critical points are either very close to the unknown vector ${\boldsymbol u}$, or are confined in a band of width $\Theta(\lambda^{-1/(k-1)})$ around the maximum circle that is orthogonal to ${\boldsymbol u}$. For local maxima, this band shrinks to be of size $\Theta(\lambda^{-1/(k-2)})$. These `uninformative' local maxima are likely to cause the failure of optimization algorithms.

We present a simple generative framework for learning to predict previously unseen classes, based on estimating class-attribute-gated class-conditional distributions. We model each class-conditional distribution as an exponential family distribution and the parameters of the distribution of each seen/unseen class are defined as functions of the respective observed class attributes. These functions can be learned using only the seen class data and can be used to predict the parameters of the class-conditional distribution of each unseen class. Unlike most existing methods for zero-shot learning that represent classes as fixed embeddings in some vector space, our generative model naturally represents each class as a probability distribution. It is simple to implement and also allows leveraging additional unlabeled data from unseen classes to improve the estimates of their class-conditional distributions using transductive/semi-supervised learning. Moreover, it extends seamlessly to few-shot learning by easily updating these distributions when provided with a small number of additional labelled examples from unseen classes. Through a comprehensive set of experiments on several benchmark data sets, we demonstrate the efficacy of our framework.

We introduce a new family of MCMC samplers that combine auxiliary variables, Gibbs sampling and Taylor expansions of the target density. Our approach permits the marginalisation over the auxiliary variables yielding marginal samplers, or the augmentation of the auxiliary variables, yielding auxiliary samplers. The well-known Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm (MALA) and preconditioned Crank-Nicolson Langevin (pCNL) algorithm are shown to be special cases. We prove that marginal samplers are superior in terms of asymptotic variance and demonstrate cases where they are slower in computing time compared to auxiliary samplers. In the context of latent Gaussian models we propose new auxiliary and marginal samplers whose implementation requires a single tuning parameter, which can be found automatically during the transient phase. Extensive experimentation shows that the increase in efficiency (measured as effective sample size per unit of computing time) relative to (optimised implementations of) pCNL, elliptical slice sampling and MALA ranges from 10-fold in binary classification problems to 25-fold in log-Gaussian Cox processes to 100-fold in Gaussian process regression, and it is on par with Riemann manifold Hamiltonian Monte Carlo in an example where the latter has the same complexity as the aforementioned algorithms. We explain this remarkable improvement in terms of the way alternative samplers try to approximate the eigenvalues of the target. We introduce a novel MCMC sampling scheme for hyperparameter learning that builds upon the auxiliary samplers. The MATLAB code for reproducing the experiments in the article is publicly available and a Supplement to this article contains additional experiments and implementation details.

In this paper, we design a nonparametric online algorithm for estimating the triggering functions of multivariate Hawkes processes. Unlike parametric estimation, where evolutionary dynamics can be exploited for fast computation of the gradient, and unlike typical function learning, where representer theorem is readily applicable upon proper regularization of the objective function, nonparametric estimation faces the challenges of (i) inefficient evaluation of the gradient, (ii) lack of representer theorem, and (iii) computationally expensive projection necessary to guarantee positivity of the triggering functions. In this paper, we offer solutions to the above challenges, and design an online estimation algorithm named NPOLE-MHP that outputs estimations with a $\mathcal{O}(1/T)$ regret, and a $\mathcal{O}(1/T)$ stability. Furthermore, we design an algorithm, NPOLE-MMHP, for estimation of multivariate marked Hawkes processes. We test the performance of NPOLE-MHP on various synthetic and real datasets, and demonstrate, under different evaluation metrics, that NPOLE-MHP performs as good as the optimal maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), while having a run time as little as parametric online algorithms.

Our article considers variational approximations of the posterior distribution in a high-dimensional state space model. The variational approximation is a multivariate Gaussian density, in which the variational parameters to be optimized are a mean vector and a covariance matrix. The number of parameters in the covariance matrix grows as the square of the number of model parameters, so it is necessary to find simple yet effective parametrizations of the covariance structure when the number of model parameters is large. The joint posterior distribution over the high-dimensional state vectors is approximated using a dynamic factor model, with Markovian dependence in time and a factor covariance structure for the states. This gives a reduced dimension description of the dependence structure for the states, as well as a temporal conditional independence structure similar to that in the true posterior. We illustrate our approach in two high-dimensional applications which are challenging for Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The first is a spatio-temporal model for the spread of the Eurasian Collared-Dove across North America. The second is a multivariate stochastic volatility model for financial returns via a Wishart process.

Data association, the reasoning over correspondence between targets and measurements, is a problem of fundamental importance in target tracking. Recently, belief propagation (BP) has emerged as a promising method for estimating the marginal probabilities of measurement to target association, providing fast, accurate estimates. The excellent performance of BP in the particular formulation used may be attributed to the convexity of the underlying free energy which it implicitly optimises. This paper studies multiple scan data association problems, i.e., problems that reason over correspondence between targets and several sets of measurements, which may correspond to different sensors or different time steps. We find that the multiple scan extension of the single scan BP formulation is non-convex and demonstrate the undesirable behaviour that can result. A convex free energy is constructed using the recently proposed fractional free energy (FFE). A convergent, BP-like algorithm is provided for the single scan FFE, and employed in optimising the multiple scan free energy using primal-dual coordinate ascent. Finally, based on a variational interpretation of joint probabilistic data association (JPDA), we develop a sequential variant of the algorithm that is similar to JPDA, but retains consistency constraints from prior scans. The performance of the proposed methods is demonstrated on a bearings only target localisation problem.

Detecting a change point is a crucial task in statistics that has been recently extended to the quantum realm. A source state generator that emits a series of single photons in a default state suffers an alteration at some point and starts to emit photons in a mutated state. The problem consists in identifying the point where the change took place. In this work, we consider a learning agent that applies Bayesian inference on experimental data to solve this problem. This learning machine adjusts the measurement over each photon according to the past experimental results finds the change position in an online fashion. Our results show that the local-detection success probability can be largely improved by using such a machine learning technique. This protocol provides a tool for improvement in many applications where a sequence of identical quantum states is required.