An important metric of users' satisfaction and engagement within on-line streaming services is the user session length, i.e. the amount of time they spend on a service continuously without interruption. Being able to predict this value directly benefits the recommendation and ad pacing contexts in music and video streaming services. Recent research has shown that predicting the exact amount of time spent is highly nontrivial due to many external factors for which a user can end a session, and the lack of predictive covariates. Most of the other related literature on duration based user engagement has focused on dwell time for websites, for search and display ads, mainly for post-click satisfaction prediction or ad ranking. In this work we present a novel framework inspired by hierarchical Bayesian modeling to predict, at the moment of login, the amount of time a user will spend in the streaming service. The time spent by a user on a platform depends upon user-specific latent variables which are learned via hierarchical shrinkage. Our framework enjoys theoretical guarantees, naturally incorporates flexible parametric/nonparametric models on the covariates and is found to outperform state-of- the-art estimators in terms of efficiency and predictive performance on real world datasets.

Estimating the structure of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs, also known as Bayesian networks) is a challenging problem since the search space of DAGs is combinatorial and scales superexponentially with the number of nodes. Existing approaches rely on various local heuristics for enforcing the acyclicity constraint and are not well-suited to general purpose optimization packages for their solution. In this paper, we introduce a fundamentally different strategy: We formulate the structure learning problem as a smooth, constrained optimization problem over real matrices that avoids this combinatorial constraint entirely. This is achieved by a novel characterization of acyclicity that is not only smooth but also exact. The resulting nonconvex, constrained program involves smooth functions whose gradients are easy to compute and only involve elementary matrix operations. By using existing black-box optimization routines, our method uses global search to find an optimal DAG and can be implemented in about 50 lines of Python and outperforms existing methods without imposing any structural constraints.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) often require good regularizers to generalize well. Currently, state-of-the-art DNN regularization techniques consist in randomly dropping units and/or connections on each iteration of the training algorithm. Dropout and DropConnect are characteristic examples of such regularizers, that are widely popular among practitioners. However, a drawback of such approaches consists in the fact that their postulated probability of random unit/connection omission is a constant that must be heuristically selected based on the obtained performance in some validation set. To alleviate this burden, in this paper we regard the DNN regularization problem from a Bayesian inference perspective: We impose a sparsity-inducing prior over the network synaptic weights, where the sparsity is induced by a set of Bernoulli-distributed binary variables with Beta (hyper-)priors over their prior parameters. This way, we eventually allow for marginalizing over the DNN synaptic connectivity for output generation, thus giving rise to an effective, heuristics-free, network regularization scheme. We perform Bayesian inference for the resulting hierarchical model by means of an efficient Black-Box Variational inference scheme. We exhibit the advantages of our method over existing approaches by conducting an extensive experimental evaluation using benchmark datasets.

We propose SEARNN, a novel training algorithm for recurrent neural networks (RNNs) inspired by the "learning to search" (L2S) approach to structured prediction. RNNs have been widely successful in structured prediction applications such as machine translation or parsing, and are commonly trained using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). Unfortunately, this training loss is not always an appropriate surrogate for the test error: by only maximizing the ground truth probability, it fails to exploit the wealth of information offered by structured losses. Further, it introduces discrepancies between training and predicting (such as exposure bias) that may hurt test performance. Instead, SEARNN leverages test-alike search space exploration to introduce global-local losses that are closer to the test error. We first demonstrate improved performance over MLE on two different tasks: OCR and spelling correction. Then, we propose a subsampling strategy to enable SEARNN to scale to large vocabulary sizes. This allows us to validate the benefits of our approach on a machine translation task.

In the medical community, there is a pressing need for personalized predictions of how a disruptive event, such as a treatment or disease, will impact particular bodily function levels. Of particular interest is the extent to which the function is initially perturbed by the event and the ensuing pattern of recovery. In many contexts, such as mental acuity following a stroke or sexual function following prostatectomy, the post-event trajectory generally exhibits what we call a recovery curve shape, characterized by an initial instantaneous drop followed by a monotonic rise towards an asymptotic level not exceeding the original function level. Here, we propose a Bayesian model that can be used to predict a patient's expected recovery curve, given information about the patient that is available before the event. This paper presents a decision aid for patients considering a medical treatment who want to know what adverse side effect the treatment would have on a particular bodily function. In particular, our model will be used to display to the patient a distribution over post-treatment function trajectories, conveying the uncertainty in predictions that should be considered in decision-making.

We show that Entropy-SGD (Chaudhari et al., 2017), when viewed as a learning algorithm, optimizes a PAC-Bayes bound on the risk of a Gibbs (posterior) classifier, i.e., a randomized classifier obtained by a risk-sensitive perturbation of the weights of a learned classifier. Entropy-SGD works by optimizing the bound's prior, violating the hypothesis of the PAC-Bayes theorem that the prior is chosen independently of the data. Indeed, available implementations of Entropy-SGD rapidly obtain zero training error on random labels and the same holds of the Gibbs posterior. In order to obtain a valid generalization bound, we rely on a result showing that data-dependent priors obtained by stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) yield valid PAC-Bayes bounds provided the target distribution of SGLD is $\epsilon$-differentially private. We observe that test error on MNIST and CIFAR10 falls within the (empirically nonvacuous) risk bounds computed under the assumption that SGLD reaches stationarity. In particular, Entropy-SGLD can be configured to yield relatively tight generalization bounds and still fit real labels, although these same settings do not obtain state-of-the-art performance.

It has long been known that a single-layer fully-connected neural network with an i.i.d. prior over its parameters is equivalent to a Gaussian process (GP), in the limit of infinite network width. This correspondence enables exact Bayesian inference for infinite width neural networks on regression tasks by means of evaluating the corresponding GP. Recently, kernel functions which mimic multi-layer random neural networks have been developed, but only outside of a Bayesian framework. As such, previous work has not identified that these kernels can be used as covariance functions for GPs and allow fully Bayesian prediction with a deep neural network. In this work, we derive the exact equivalence between infinitely wide deep networks and GPs. We further develop a computationally efficient pipeline to compute the covariance function for these GPs. We then use the resulting GPs to perform Bayesian inference for wide deep neural networks on MNIST and CIFAR-10. We observe that trained neural network accuracy approaches that of the corresponding GP with increasing layer width, and that the GP uncertainty is strongly correlated with trained network prediction error. We further find that test performance increases as finite-width trained networks are made wider and more similar to a GP, and thus that GP predictions typically outperform those of finite-width networks. Finally we connect the performance of these GPs to the recent theory of signal propagation in random neural networks.

This paper presents a novel formulation and solution of orbit determination over finite time horizons as a learning problem. We present an approach to orbit determination under very broad conditions that are satisfied for n-body problems. These weak conditions allow us to perform orbit determination with noisy and highly non-linear observations such as those presented by range-rate only (Doppler only) observations. We show that domain generalization and distribution regression techniques can learn to estimate orbits of a group of satellites and identify individual satellites especially with prior understanding of correlations between orbits and provide asymptotic convergence conditions. The approach presented requires only visibility and observability of the underlying state from observations and is particularly useful for autonomous spacecraft operations using low-cost ground stations or sensors. We validate the orbit determination approach using observations of two spacecraft (GRIFEX and MCubed-2) along with synthetic datasets of multiple spacecraft deployments and lunar orbits. We also provide a comparison with the standard techniques (EKF) under highly noisy conditions.

Recent advances in the field of inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) have yielded sophisticated frameworks which relax the original modeling assumption that the behavior of an observed agent reflects only a single intention. Instead, the demonstration data is typically divided into parts, to account for the fact that different trajectories may correspond to different intentions, e.g., because they were generated by different domain experts. In this work, we go one step further: using the intuitive concept of subgoals, we build upon the premise that even a single trajectory can be explained more efficiently locally within a certain context than globally, enabling a more compact representation of the observed behavior. Based on this assumption, we build an implicit intentional model of the agent's goals to forecast its behavior in unobserved situations. The result is an integrated Bayesian prediction framework which provides smooth policy estimates that are consistent with the expert's plan and significantly outperform existing IRL solutions. Most notably, our framework naturally handles situations where the intentions of the agent change with time and classical IRL algorithms fail. In addition, due to its probabilistic nature, the model can be straightforwardly applied in an active learning setting to guide the demonstration process of the expert.

A common data mining task on networks is community detection, which seeks an unsupervised decomposition of a network into structural groups based on statistical regularities in the network's connectivity. Although many methods exist, the No Free Lunch theorem for community detection implies that each makes some kind of tradeoff, and no algorithm can be optimal on all inputs. Thus, different algorithms will over or underfit on different inputs, finding more, fewer, or just different communities than is optimal, and evaluation methods that use a metadata partition as a ground truth will produce misleading conclusions about general accuracy. Here, we present a broad evaluation of over and underfitting in community detection, comparing the behavior of 16 state-of-the-art community detection algorithms on a novel and structurally diverse corpus of 406 real-world networks. We find that (i) algorithms vary widely both in the number of communities they find and in their corresponding composition, given the same input, (ii) algorithms can be clustered into distinct high-level groups based on similarities of their outputs on real-world networks, and (iii) these differences induce wide variation in accuracy on link prediction and link description tasks. We introduce a new diagnostic for evaluating overfitting and underfitting in practice, and use it to roughly divide community detection methods into general and specialized learning algorithms. Across methods and inputs, Bayesian techniques based on the stochastic block model and a minimum description length approach to regularization represent the best general learning approach, but can be outperformed under specific circumstances. These results introduce both a theoretically principled approach to evaluate over and underfitting in models of network community structure and a realistic benchmark by which new methods may be evaluated and compared.