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 Bayesian Inference


Weak Labeling for Crowd Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Crowdsourcing has become very popular among the machine learning community as a way to obtain labels that allow a ground truth to be estimated for a given dataset. In most of the approaches that use crowdsourced labels, annotators are asked to provide, for each presented instance, a single class label. Such a request could be inefficient, that is, considering that the labelers may not be experts, that way to proceed could fail to take real advantage of the knowledge of the labelers. In this paper, the use of weak labeling for crowd learning is proposed, where the annotators may provide more than a single label per instance to try not to miss the real label. The main hypothesis is that, by allowing weak labeling, knowledge can be extracted from the labelers more efficiently by than in the standard crowd learning scenario. Empirical evidence which supports that hypothesis is presented.


Decentralized learning with budgeted network load using Gaussian copulas and classifier ensembles

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We examine a network of learners which address the same classification task but must learn from different data sets. The learners can share a limited portion of their data sets so as to preserve the network load. We introduce DELCO (standing for Decentralized Ensemble Learning with COpulas), a new approach in which the shared data and the trained models are sent to a central machine that allows to build an ensemble of classifiers. The proposed method aggregates the base classifiers using a probabilistic model relying on Gaussian copulas. Experiments on logistic regressor ensembles demonstrate competing accuracy and increased robustness as compared to gold standard approaches. A companion python implementation can be downloaded at https://github.com/john-klein/DELCO


Generative Model for Heterogeneous Inference

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Generative models (GMs) such as Generative Adversary Network (GAN) and Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE) have thrived these years and achieved high quality results in generating new samples. Especially in Computer Vision, GMs have been used in image inpainting, denoising and completion, which can be treated as the inference from observed pixels to corrupted pixels. However, images are hierarchically structured which are quite different from many real-world inference scenarios with non-hierarchical features. These inference scenarios contain heterogeneous stochastic variables and irregular mutual dependences. Traditionally they are modeled by Bayesian Network (BN). However, the learning and inference of BN model are NP-hard thus the number of stochastic variables in BN is highly constrained. In this paper, we adapt typical GMs to enable heterogeneous learning and inference in polynomial time.We also propose an extended autoregressive (EAR) model and an EAR with adversary loss (EARA) model and give theoretical results on their effectiveness. Experiments on several BN datasets show that our proposed EAR model achieves the best performance in most cases compared to other GMs. Except for black box analysis, we've also done a serial of experiments on Markov border inference of GMs for white box analysis and give theoretical results.


The phase transition for the existence of the maximum likelihood estimate in high-dimensional logistic regression

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper rigorously establishes that the existence of the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) in high-dimensional logistic regression models with Gaussian covariates undergoes a sharp `phase transition'. We introduce an explicit boundary curve $h_{\text{MLE}}$, parameterized by two scalars measuring the overall magnitude of the unknown sequence of regression coefficients, with the following property: in the limit of large sample sizes $n$ and number of features $p$ proportioned in such a way that $p/n \rightarrow \kappa$, we show that if the problem is sufficiently high dimensional in the sense that $\kappa > h_{\text{MLE}}$, then the MLE does not exist with probability one. Conversely, if $\kappa < h_{\text{MLE}}$, the MLE asymptotically exists with probability one.


t-DCF: a Detection Cost Function for the Tandem Assessment of Spoofing Countermeasures and Automatic Speaker Verification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The ASVspoof challenge series was born to spearhead research in anti-spoofing for automatic speaker verification (ASV). The two challenge editions in 2015 and 2017 involved the assessment of spoofing countermeasures (CMs) in isolation from ASV using an equal error rate (EER) metric. While a strategic approach to assessment at the time, it has certain shortcomings. First, the CM EER is not necessarily a reliable predictor of performance when ASV and CMs are combined. Second, the EER operating point is ill-suited to user authentication applications, e.g. telephone banking, characterised by a high target user prior but a low spoofing attack prior. We aim to migrate from CM- to ASV-centric assessment with the aid of a new tandem detection cost function (t-DCF) metric. It extends the conventional DCF used in ASV research to scenarios involving spoofing attacks. The t-DCF metric has 6 parameters: (i) false alarm and miss costs for both systems, and (ii) prior probabilities of target and spoof trials (with an implied third, nontarget prior). The study is intended to serve as a self-contained, tutorial-like presentation. We analyse with the t-DCF a selection of top-performing CM submissions to the 2015 and 2017 editions of ASVspoof, with a focus on the spoofing attack prior. Whereas there is little to choose between countermeasure systems for lower priors, system rankings derived with the EER and t-DCF show differences for higher priors. We observe some ranking changes. Findings support the adoption of the DCF-based metric into the roadmap for future ASVspoof challenges, and possibly for other biometric anti-spoofing evaluations.


Relational Marginal Problems: Theory and Estimation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the propositional setting, the marginal problem is to find a (maximum-entropy) distribution that has some given marginals. We study this problem in a relational setting and make the following contributions. First, we compare two different notions of relational marginals. Second, we show a duality between the resulting relational marginal problems and the maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of relational models, which generalizes a well-known duality from the propositional setting. Third, by exploiting the relational marginal formulation, we present a statistically sound method to learn the parameters of relational models that will be applied in settings where the number of constants differs between the training and test data. Furthermore, based on a relational generalization of marginal polytopes, we characterize cases where the standard estimators based on feature's number of true groundings needs to be adjusted and we quantitatively characterize the consequences of these adjustments. Fourth, we prove bounds on expected errors of the estimated parameters, which allows us to lower-bound, among other things, the effective sample size of relational training data.


A Spoofing Benchmark for the 2018 Voice Conversion Challenge: Leveraging from Spoofing Countermeasures for Speech Artifact Assessment

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Voice conversion (VC) aims at conversion of speaker characteristic without altering content. Due to training data limitations and modeling imperfections, it is difficult to achieve believable speaker mimicry without introducing processing artifacts; performance assessment of VC, therefore, usually involves both speaker similarity and quality evaluation by a human panel. As a time-consuming, expensive, and non-reproducible process, it hinders rapid prototyping of new VC technology. We address artifact assessment using an alternative, objective approach leveraging from prior work on spoofing countermeasures (CMs) for automatic speaker verification. Therein, CMs are used for rejecting `fake' inputs such as replayed, synthetic or converted speech but their potential for automatic speech artifact assessment remains unknown. This study serves to fill that gap. As a supplement to subjective results for the 2018 Voice Conversion Challenge (VCC'18) data, we configure a standard constant-Q cepstral coefficient CM to quantify the extent of processing artifacts. Equal error rate (EER) of the CM, a confusability index of VC samples with real human speech, serves as our artifact measure. Two clusters of VCC'18 entries are identified: low-quality ones with detectable artifacts (low EERs), and higher quality ones with less artifacts. None of the VCC'18 systems, however, is perfect: all EERs are < 30 % (the `ideal' value would be 50 %). Our preliminary findings suggest potential of CMs outside of their original application, as a supplemental optimization and benchmarking tool to enhance VC technology.


Taskonomy: Disentangling Task Transfer Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Do visual tasks have a relationship, or are they unrelated? For instance, could having surface normals simplify estimating the depth of an image? Intuition answers these questions positively, implying existence of a structure among visual tasks. Knowing this structure has notable values; it is the concept underlying transfer learning and provides a principled way for identifying redundancies across tasks, e.g., to seamlessly reuse supervision among related tasks or solve many tasks in one system without piling up the complexity. We proposes a fully computational approach for modeling the structure of space of visual tasks. This is done via finding (first and higher-order) transfer learning dependencies across a dictionary of twenty six 2D, 2.5D, 3D, and semantic tasks in a latent space. The product is a computational taxonomic map for task transfer learning. We study the consequences of this structure, e.g. nontrivial emerged relationships, and exploit them to reduce the demand for labeled data. For example, we show that the total number of labeled datapoints needed for solving a set of 10 tasks can be reduced by roughly 2/3 (compared to training independently) while keeping the performance nearly the same. We provide a set of tools for computing and probing this taxonomical structure including a solver that users can employ to devise efficient supervision policies for their use cases.


State-Space Abstractions for Probabilistic Inference: A Systematic Review

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Tasks such as social network analysis, human behavior recognition, or modeling biochemical reactions, can be solved elegantly by using the probabilistic inference framework. However, standard probabilistic inference algorithms work at a propositional level, and thus cannot capture the symmetries and redundancies that are present in these tasks. Algorithms that exploit those symmetries have been devised in different research fields, for example by the lifted inference-, multiple object tracking-, and modeling and simulation-communities. The common idea, that we call state space abstraction, is to perform inference over compact representations of sets of symmetric states. Although they are concerned with a similar topic, the relationship between these approaches has not been investigated systematically. This survey provides the following contributions. We perform a systematic literature review to outline the state of the art in probabilistic inference methods exploiting symmetries. From an initial set of more than 4,000 papers, we identify 116 relevant papers. Furthermore, we provide new high-level categories that classify the approaches, based on the problem classes the different approaches can solve. Researchers from different fields that are confronted with a state space explosion problem in a probabilistic system can use this classification to identify possible solutions. Finally, based on this conceptualization, we identify potentials for future research, as some relevant application domains are not addressed by current approaches.


Key Algorithms and Statistical Models for Aspiring Data Scientists

@machinelearnbot

As a data scientist who has been in the profession for several years now, I am often approached for career advice or guidance in course selection related to machine learning by students and career switchers on LinkedIn and Quora. Some questions revolve around educational paths and program selection, but many questions focus on what sort of algorithms or models are common in data science today. With a glut of algorithms from which to choose, it's hard to know where to start. Courses may include algorithms that aren't typically used in industry today, and courses may exclude very useful methods that aren't trending at the moment. Software-based programs may exclude important statistical concepts, and mathematically-based programs may skip over some of the key topics in algorithm design. I've put together a short guide for aspiring data scientists, particularly focused on statistical models and machine learning models (supervised and unsupervised); many of these topics are covered in textbooks, graduate-level statistics courses, data science bootcamps, and other training resources (some of which are included in the reference section of the article).