We introduce a method for embedding words as probability densities in a low-dimensional space. Rather than assuming that a word embedding is fixed across the entire text collection, as in standard word embedding methods, in our Bayesian model we generate it from a word-specific prior density for each occurrence of a given word. Intuitively, for each word, the prior density encodes the distribution of its potential 'meanings'. These prior densities are conceptually similar to Gaussian embeddings. Interestingly, unlike the Gaussian embeddings, we can also obtain context-specific densities: they encode uncertainty about the sense of a word given its context and correspond to posterior distributions within our model. The context-dependent densities have many potential applications: for example, we show that they can be directly used in the lexical substitution task. We describe an effective estimation method based on the variational autoencoding framework. We also demonstrate that our embeddings achieve competitive results on standard benchmarks.

While off-policy temporal difference (TD) methods have widely been used in reinforcement learning due to their efficiency and simple implementation, their Bayesian counterparts have not been utilized as frequently. One reason is that the non-linear max operation in the Bellman optimality equation makes it difficult to define conjugate distributions over the value functions. In this paper, we introduce a novel Bayesian approach to off-policy TD methods using Assumed Density Filtering (ADFQ), which updates beliefs on state-action values (Q) through an online Bayesian inference method. Uncertainty measures in the beliefs provide a natural regularization for learning, and we show how ADFQ reduces in a limiting case to the traditional Q-learning algorithm. Our empirical results demonstrate that the proposed ADFQ algorithms outperform comparable algorithms on several task domains. Moreover, our algorithms are computationally more efficient than other existing approaches to Bayesian reinforcement learning.

Machine learning is a major component in the race towards artificial intelligence. Whether you're seeking true artificial intelligence or simply trying to gain insight from all the data you've been collecting, machine learning is a major step forward. But where to get started? If you're a beginner, machine learning can feel overwhelming – how to choose which algorithms to use, from the seemingly infinite options, and how to know just which one will provide the right predictions (data outputs). These top 5 machine learning algorithms for beginners offer a fine balance of ease, lower computational power, and immediate, accurate results.

The vast majority of network datasets contains errors and omissions, although this is rarely incorporated in traditional network analysis. Recently, an increasing effort has been made to fill this methodological gap by developing network reconstruction approaches based on Bayesian inference. These approaches, however, rely on assumptions of uniform error rates and on direct estimations of the existence of each edge via repeated measurements, something that is currently unavailable for the majority of network data. Here we develop a Bayesian reconstruction approach that lifts these limitations by not only allowing for heterogeneous errors, but also for individual edge measurements without direct error estimates. Our approach works by coupling the inference approach with structured generative network models, which enable the correlations between edges to be used as reliable error estimates. Although our approach is general, we focus on the stochastic block model as the basic generative process, from which efficient nonparametric inference can be performed, and yields a principled method to infer hierarchical community structure from noisy data. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach with a variety of empirical and artificial networks.

Analyzing large-scale, multi-experiment studies requires scientists to test each experimental outcome for statistical significance and then assess the results as a whole. We present Black Box FDR (BB-FDR), an empirical-Bayes method for analyzing multi-experiment studies when many covariates are gathered per experiment. BB-FDR learns a series of black box predictive models to boost power and control the false discovery rate (FDR) at two stages of study analysis. In Stage 1, it uses a deep neural network prior to report which experiments yielded significant outcomes. In Stage 2, a separate black box model of each covariate is used to select features that have significant predictive power across all experiments. In benchmarks, BB-FDR outperforms competing state-of-the-art methods in both stages of analysis. We apply BB-FDR to two real studies on cancer drug efficacy. For both studies, BB-FDR increases the proportion of significant outcomes discovered and selects variables that reveal key genomic drivers of drug sensitivity and resistance in cancer.

Despite the recent successes of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) in AI applications, PPLs offer only limited support for random variables whose distributions combine discrete and continuous elements. We develop the notion of measure-theoretic Bayesian networks (MTBNs) and use it to provide more general semantics for PPLs with arbitrarily many random variables defined over arbitrary measure spaces. We develop two new general sampling algorithms that are provably correct under the MTBN framework: the lexicographic likelihood weighting (LLW) for general MTBNs and the lexicographic particle filter (LPF), a specialized algorithm for state-space models. We further integrate MTBNs into a widely used PPL system, BLOG, and verify the effectiveness of the new inference algorithms through representative examples.

In zero-shot learning (ZSL), a classifier is trained to recognize visual classes without any image samples. Instead, it is given semantic information about the class, like a textual description or a set of attributes. Learning from attributes could benefit from explicitly modeling structure of the attribute space. Unfortunately, learning of general structure from empirical samples is hard with typical dataset sizes. Here we describe LAGO, a probabilistic model designed to capture natural soft and-or relations across groups of attributes. We show how this model can be learned end-to-end with a deep attribute-detection model. The soft group structure can be learned from data jointly as part of the model, and can also readily incorporate prior knowledge about groups if available. The soft and-or structure succeeds to capture meaningful and predictive structures, improving the accuracy of zero-shot learning on two of three benchmarks. Finally, LAGO reveals a unified formulation over two ZSL approaches: DAP (Lampert et al. 2009) and ESZSL (Romera-Paredes & Torr, 2015). Interestingly, taking only one singleton group for each attribute, introduces a new soft-relaxation of DAP, that outperforms DAP by ~40%.

During the past quarter-century, situation awareness (SAW) has become a critical research theme, because of its importance. Since the concept of SAW was first introduced during World War I, various versions of SAW have been researched and introduced. Predictive Situation Awareness (PSAW) focuses on the ability to predict aspects of a temporally evolving situation over time. PSAW requires a formal representation and a reasoning method using such a representation. A Multi-Entity Bayesian Network (MEBN) is a knowledge representation formalism combining Bayesian Networks (BN) with First-Order Logic (FOL). MEBN can be used to represent uncertain situations (supported by BN) as well as complex situations (supported by FOL). Also, efficient reasoning algorithms for MEBN have been developed. MEBN can be a formal representation to support PSAW and has been used for several PSAW systems. Although several MEBN applications for PSAW exist, very little work can be found in the literature that attempts to generalize a MEBN model to support PSAW. In this research, we define a reference model for MEBN in PSAW, called a PSAW-MEBN reference model. The PSAW-MEBN reference model enables us to easily develop a MEBN model for PSAW by supporting the design of a MEBN model for PSAW. In this research, we introduce two example use cases using the PSAW-MEBN reference model to develop MEBN models to support PSAW: a Smart Manufacturing System and a Maritime Domain Awareness System.

We investigate the problem of truth discovery based on opinions from multiple agents who may be unreliable or biased. We consider the case where agents' reliabilities or biases are correlated if they belong to the same community, which defines a group of agents with similar opinions regarding a particular event. An agent can belong to different communities for different events, and these communities are unknown \emph{a priori}. We incorporate knowledge of the agents' social network in our truth discovery framework and develop Laplace variational inference methods to estimate agents' reliabilities, communities, and the event states. We also develop a stochastic variational inference method to scale our model to large social networks. Simulations and experiments on real data suggest that when observations are sparse, our proposed methods perform better than several other inference methods, including majority voting, the popular Bayesian Classifier Combination (BCC) method, and the Community BCC method.

Many structured prediction problems (particularly in vision and language domains) are ambiguous, with multiple outputs being correct for an input - e.g. there are many ways of describing an image, multiple ways of translating a sentence; however, exhaustively annotating the applicability of all possible outputs is intractable due to exponentially large output spaces (e.g. all English sentences). In practice, these problems are cast as multi-class prediction, with the likelihood of only a sparse set of annotations being maximized - unfortunately penalizing for placing beliefs on plausible but unannotated outputs. We make and test the following hypothesis - for a given input, the annotations of its neighbors may serve as an additional supervisory signal. Specifically, we propose an objective that transfers supervision from neighboring examples. We first study the properties of our developed method in a controlled toy setup before reporting results on multi-label classification and two image-grounded sequence modeling tasks - captioning and question generation. We evaluate using standard task-specific metrics and measures of output diversity, finding consistent improvements over standard maximum likelihood training and other baselines.