In this article, we investigate the features which enhanced discriminate the survival in the micro and small business (MSE) using the approach of data mining with feature selection. According to the complexity of the data set, we proposed a comparison of three data imputation methods such as mean imputation (MI), k-nearest neighbor (KNN) and expectation maximization (EM) using mutually the selection of variables technique, whereby t-test, then through the data mining process using logistic regression classification methods, naive Bayes algorithm, linear discriminant analysis and support vector machine hence comparing their respective performances. The experimental results will be spread in developing a model to predict the MSE survival, providing a better understanding in the topic once it is a significant part of the Brazilian' GPA and macroeconomy.

Bayesian inference typically requires the computation of an approximation to the posterior distribution. An important requirement for an approximate Bayesian inference algorithm is to output high-accuracy posterior mean and uncertainty estimates. Classical Monte Carlo methods, particularly Markov Chain Monte Carlo, remain the gold standard for approximate Bayesian inference because they have a robust finite-sample theory and reliable convergence diagnostics. However, alternative methods, which are more scalable or apply to problems where Markov Chain Monte Carlo cannot be used, lack the same finite-data approximation theory and tools for evaluating their accuracy. In this work, we develop a flexible new approach to bounding the error of mean and uncertainty estimates of scalable inference algorithms. Our strategy is to control the estimation errors in terms of Wasserstein distance, then bound the Wasserstein distance via a generalized notion of Fisher distance. Unlike computing the Wasserstein distance, which requires access to the normalized posterior distribution, the Fisher distance is tractable to compute because it requires access only to the gradient of the log posterior density. We demonstrate the usefulness of our Fisher distance approach by deriving bounds on the Wasserstein error of the Laplace approximation and Hilbert coresets. We anticipate that our approach will be applicable to many other approximate inference methods such as the integrated Laplace approximation, variational inference, and approximate Bayesian computation

In this work, we developed a network inference method from incomplete data ("PathInf") , as massive and non-uniformly distributed missing values is a common challenge in practical problems. PathInf is a two-stages inference model. In the first stage, it applies a data summarization model based on maximum likelihood to deal with the massive distributed missing values by transforming the observation-wise items in the data into state matrix. In the second stage, transition pattern (i.e. pathway) among variables is inferred as a graph inference problem solved by greedy algorithm with constraints. The proposed method was validated and compared with the state-of-art Bayesian network method on the simulation data, and shown consistently superior performance. By applying the PathInf on the lymph vascular metastasis data, we obtained the holistic pathways of the lymph node metastasis with novel discoveries on the jumping metastasis among nodes that are physically apart. The discovery indicates the possible presence of sentinel node groups in the lung lymph nodes which have been previously speculated yet never found. The pathway map can also improve the current dissection examination protocol for better individualized treatment planning, for higher diagnostic accuracy and reducing the patients trauma.

Cyber-physical systems (CPSs) embed software into the physical world. They appear in a wide range of applications such as smart grids, robotics, intelligent manufacture and medical monitoring. CPSs have proved resistant to modeling due to their intrinsic complexity arising from the combination of physical components and cyber components and the interaction between them. This study proposes a general framework for reverse engineering CPSs directly from data. The method involves the identification of physical systems as well as the inference of transition logic. It has been applied successfully to a number of real-world examples ranging from mechanical and electrical systems to medical applications. The novel framework seeks to enable researchers to make predictions concerning the trajectory of CPSs based on the discovered model. Such information has been proven essential for the assessment of the performance of CPS, the design of failure-proof CPS and the creation of design guidelines for new CPSs.

In this paper we study the problem of making predictions using multiple structural casual models defined by different agents, under the constraint that the prediction satisfies the criterion of counterfactual fairness. Relying on the frameworks of causality, fairness and opinion pooling, we build upon and extend previous work focusing on the qualitative aggregation of causal Bayesian networks and causal models. In order to complement previous qualitative results, we devise a method based on Monte Carlo simulations. This method enables a decision-maker to aggregate the outputs of the causal models provided by different experts while guaranteeing the counterfactual fairness of the result. We demonstrate our approach on a simple, yet illustrative, toy case study.

Existing Bayesian treatments of neural networks are typically characterized by weak prior and approximate posterior distributions according to which all the weights are drawn independently. Here, we consider a richer prior distribution in which units in the network are represented by latent variables, and the weights between units are drawn conditionally on the values of the collection of those variables. This allows rich correlations between related weights, and can be seen as realizing a function prior with a Bayesian complexity regularizer ensuring simple solutions. We illustrate the resulting meta-representations and representations, elucidating the power of this prior.

Abstract--In this paper we address the problem of tracking multiple speakers via the fusion of visual and auditory information. We propose to exploit the complementary nature of these two modalities in order to accurately estimate smooth trajectories of the tracked persons, to deal with the partial or total absence of one of the modalities over short periods of time, and to estimate the acoustic status - either speaking or silent - of each tracked person along time. We propose to cast the problem at hand into a generative audiovisual fusion (or association) model formulated as a latent-variable temporal graphical model. This may well be viewed as the problem of maximizing the posterior joint distribution of a set of continuous and discrete latent variables given the past and current observations, which is intractable. We propose a variational inference model which amounts to approximate the joint distribution with a factorized distribution. The solution takes the form of a closed-form expectation maximization procedure. We describe in detail the inference algorithm, we evaluate its performance and we compare it with several baseline methods. These experiments show that the proposed audiovisual tracker performs well in informal meetings involving a time-varying number of people. Index Terms--Audiovisual tracking, multiple object tracking, dynamic Bayesian networks, variational inference, expectationmaximization, speaker diarization. In this paper we address the problem of tracking multiple speakers via the fusion of visual and auditory information [1]- [7]. We propose to exploit the complementary nature of these two modalities in order to accurately estimate the position of each person at each time step, to deal with the partial or total absence of one of the modalities over short periods of time, and to estimate the acoustic status, either speaking or silent, of each tracked person. We propose to cast the problem at hand into a generative audiovisual fusion (or association) model formulated as a latent-variable temporal graphical model. We propose a tractable solver via a variational approximation.

Optimal treatment regimes (OTR) are individualised treatment assignment strategies that identify a medical treatment as optimal given all background information available on the individual. We discuss Bayes optimal treatment regimes estimated using a loss function defined on the bivariate distribution of dichotomous potential outcomes. The proposed approach allows considering more general objectives for the OTR than maximization of an expected outcome (e.g., survival probability) by taking into account, for example, unnecessary treatment burden. As a motivating example we consider the case of oropharynx cancer treatment where unnecessary burden due to chemotherapy is to be avoided while maximizing survival chances. Assuming ignorable treatment assignment we describe Bayesian inference about the OTR including a sensitivity analysis on the unobserved partial association of the potential outcomes. We evaluate the methodology by simulations that apply Bayesian parametric and more flexible non-parametric outcome models. The proposed OTR for oropharynx cancer reduces the frequency of the more burdensome chemotherapy assignment by approximately 75% without reducing the average survival probability. This regime thus offers a strong increase in expected quality of life of patients.

We present an adaptive approach to the construction of Gaussian process surrogates for Bayesian inference with expensive-to-evaluate forward models. Our method relies on the fully Bayesian approach to training Gaussian process models and utilizes the expected improvement idea from Bayesian global optimization. We adaptively construct training designs by maximizing the expected improvement in fit of the Gaussian process model to the noisy observational data. Numerical experiments on model problems with synthetic data demonstrate the effectiveness of the obtained adaptive designs compared to the fixed non-adaptive designs in terms of accurate posterior estimation at a fraction of the cost of inference with forward models.

We propose a general framework for solving statistical mechanics of systems with a finite size. The approach extends the celebrated variational mean-field approaches using autoregressive neural networks which support direct sampling and exact calculation of normalized probability of configurations. The network computes variational free energy, estimates physical quantities such as entropy, magnetizations and correlations, and generates uncorrelated samples all at once. Training of the network employs the policy gradient approach in reinforcement learning, which unbiasedly estimates the gradient of variational parameters. We apply our approach to several classical systems, including 2-d Ising models, Hopfield model, Sherrington--Kirkpatrick spin glasses, and the inverse Ising model, for demonstrating its advantages over existing variational mean-field methods. Our approach sheds light on solving statistical physics problems using modern deep generative neural networks.