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 Bayesian Inference


The CM Algorithm for the Maximum Mutual Information Classifications of Unseen Instances

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The Maximum Mutual Information (MMI) criterion is different from the Least Error Rate (LER) criterion. It can reduce failing to report small probability events. This paper introduces the Channels Matching (CM) algorithm for the MMI classifications of unseen instances. It also introduces some semantic information methods, which base the CM algorithm. In the CM algorithm, label learning is to let the semantic channel match the Shannon channel (Matching I) whereas classifying is to let the Shannon channel match the semantic channel (Matching II). We can achieve the MMI classifications by repeating Matching I and II. For low-dimensional feature spaces, we only use parameters to construct n likelihood functions for n different classes (rather than to construct partitioning boundaries as gradient descent) and expresses the boundaries by numerical values. Without searching in parameter spaces, the computation of the CM algorithm for low-dimensional feature spaces is very simple and fast. Using a two-dimensional example, we test the speed and reliability of the CM algorithm by different initial partitions. For most initial partitions, two iterations can make the mutual information surpass 99% of the convergent MMI. The analysis indicates that for high-dimensional feature spaces, we may combine the CM algorithm with neural networks to improve the MMI classifications for faster and more reliable convergence.


Bayesian Learning of Neural Network Architectures

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper we propose a Bayesian method for estimating architectural parameters of neural networks, namely layer size and network depth. We do this by learning concrete distributions over these parameters. Our results show that regular networks with a learnt structure can generalise better on small datasets, while fully stochastic networks can be more robust to parameter initialisation. The proposed method relies on standard neural variational learning and, unlike randomised architecture search, does not require a retraining of the model, thus keeping the computational overhead at minimum.


Markov Properties of Discrete Determinantal Point Processes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are probabilistic models for repulsion. When used to represent the occurrence of random subsets of a finite base set, DPPs allow to model global negative associations in a mathematically elegant and direct way. Discrete DPPs have become popular and computationally tractable models for solving several machine learning tasks that require the selection of diverse objects, and have been successfully applied in numerous real-life problems. Despite their popularity, the statistical properties of such models have not been adequately explored. In this note, we derive the Markov properties of discrete DPPs and show how they can be expressed using graphical models.


Bayesian surrogate learning in dynamic simulator-based regression problems

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The estimation of unknown values of parameters (or hidden variables, control variables) that characterise a physical system often relies on the comparison of measured data with synthetic data produced by some numerical simulator of the system as the parameter values are varied. This process often encounters two major difficulties: the generation of synthetic data for each considered set of parameter values can be computationally expensive if the system model is complicated; and the exploration of the parameter space can be inefficient and/or incomplete, a typical example being when the exploration becomes trapped in a local optimum of the objection function that characterises the mismatch between the measured and synthetic data. A method to address both these issues is presented, whereby: a surrogate model (or proxy), which emulates the computationally expensive system simulator, is constructed using deep recurrent networks (DRN); and a nested sampling (NS) algorithm is employed to perform efficient and robust exploration of the parameter space. The analysis is performed in a Bayesian context, in which the samples characterise the full joint posterior distribution of the parameters, from which parameter estimates and uncertainties are easily derived. The proposed approach is compared with conventional methods in some numerical examples, for which the results demonstrate that one can accelerate the parameter estimation process by at least an order of magnitude.


Graphical-model based estimation and inference for differential privacy

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Many privacy mechanisms reveal high-level information about a data distribution through noisy measurements. It is common to use this information to estimate the answers to new queries. In this work, we provide an approach to solve this estimation problem efficiently using graphical models, which is particularly effective when the distribution is high-dimensional but the measurements are over low-dimensional marginals. We show that our approach is far more efficient than existing estimation techniques from the privacy literature and that it can improve the accuracy and scalability of many state-of-the-art mechanisms.


Ask less - Scale Market Research without Annoying Your Customers

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Abstract--Market research is generally performed by surveying arepresentative sample of customers with questions that includes contexts such as psycho-graphics, demographics, attitude and product preferences. Survey responses are used to segment the customers into various groups that are useful for targeted marketing and communication. Reducing the number of questions asked to the customer has utility for businesses to scale the market research to a large number of customers. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach using an example market segmentation of broadband customers. I. INTRODUCTION A key technique for developing successful business strategies inbusiness to customer (B2C) companies is to develop a good understanding of the market and the customer behavior.


Unified estimation framework for unnormalized models with statistical efficiency

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Parameter estimation of unnormalized models is a challenging problem because normalizing constants are not calculated explicitly and maximum likelihood estimation is computationally infeasible. Although some consistent estimators have been proposed earlier, the problem of statistical efficiency does remain. In this study, we propose a unified, statistically efficient estimation framework for unnormalized models and several novel efficient estimators with reasonable computational time regardless of whether the sample space is discrete or continuous. The loss functions of the proposed estimators are derived by combining the following two methods: (1) density-ratio matching using Bregman divergence, and (2) plugging-in nonparametric estimators. We also analyze the properties of the proposed estimators when the unnormalized model is misspecified. Finally, the experimental results demonstrate the advantages of our method over existing approaches.


Learning to compress and search visual data in large-scale systems

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The problem of high-dimensional and large-scale representation of visual data is addressed from an unsupervised learning perspective. The emphasis is put on discrete representations, where the description length can be measured in bits and hence the model capacity can be controlled. The algorithmic infrastructure is developed based on the synthesis and analysis prior models whose rate-distortion properties, as well as capacity vs. sample complexity trade-offs are carefully optimized. These models are then extended to multi-layers, namely the RRQ and the ML-STC frameworks, where the latter is further evolved as a powerful deep neural network architecture with fast and sample-efficient training and discrete representations. For the developed algorithms, three important applications are developed. First, the problem of large-scale similarity search in retrieval systems is addressed, where a double-stage solution is proposed leading to faster query times and shorter database storage. Second, the problem of learned image compression is targeted, where the proposed models can capture more redundancies from the training images than the conventional compression codecs. Finally, the proposed algorithms are used to solve ill-posed inverse problems. In particular, the problems of image denoising and compressive sensing are addressed with promising results.


Recovering Pairwise Interactions Using Neural Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recovering pairwise interactions, i.e. pairs of input features whose joint effect on an output is different from the sum of their marginal effects, is central in many scientific applications. We conceptualize a solution to this problem as a two-stage procedure: first, we model the relationship between the features and the output using a flexible hybrid neural network; second, we detect feature interactions from the trained model. For the second step we propose a simple and intuitive interaction measure (IM), which has no specific requirements on the machine learning model used in the first step, only that it defines a mapping from an input to an output. And in a special case it reduces to the averaged Hessian of the input-output mapping. Importantly, our method upper bounds the interaction recovery error with the error of the learning model, which ensures that we can improve the recovered interactions by training a more accurate model. We present analyses of simulated and real-world data which demonstrate the benefits of our method compared to available alternatives, and theoretically analyse its properties and relation to other methods.


A Review on Quantile Regression for Stochastic Computer Experiments

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We report on an empirical study of the main strategies for conditional quantile estimation in the context of stochastic computer experiments. To ensure adequate diversity, six metamodels are presented, divided into three categories based on order statistics, functional approaches, and those of Bayesian inspiration. The metamodels are tested on several problems characterized by the size of the training set, the input dimension, the quantile order and the value of the probability density function in the neighborhood of the quantile. The metamodels studied reveal good contrasts in our set of 480 experiments, enabling several patterns to be extracted. Based on our results, guidelines are proposed to allow users to select the best method for a given problem.