Bayesian online learning provides a coherent framework for sequential inference. However, its theoretical understanding remains limited, particularly in the one-pass setting. Existing theoretical guarantees typically require the mini-batch sample size to diverge, a condition that fails in the one-pass regime. In this paper, we propose a new Bayesian online learning algorithm tailored to the one-pass setting, which incorporates a warm-start phase to ensure stable sequential updates. For this algorithm, we show that the sequentially updated posterior attains the optimal convergence rate. Building on this, we establish an online analogue of the Bernstein-von Mises theorem, which guarantees valid uncertainty quantification without diverging mini-batch sample sizes. Our analysis is based on a novel theoretical framework that differs fundamentally from existing approaches in the online learning literature. Numerical experiments on generalized linear models show that the proposed method matches the performance of the batch estimator while outperforming existing online procedures.

The proliferation of capable and efficient machine learning (ML) models marks one of the strongest methodological shifts in signal processing (SP) in its nearly 100-year history. ML models support the development of SP systems that represent complex, nonlinear relationships with high predictive accuracy. Adapting these models often requires sequential inference, which differs both theoretically and methodologically from the usual paradigm of ML, where data are often assumed independent and identically distributed. Gaussian processes (GPs) are a flexible yet principled framework for modeling random functions, and they have become increasingly relevant to SP as statistical and ML methods assume a more prominent role. We provide a self-contained, tutorial-style overview of GPs, with a particular focus on recent methodological advances in sequential, incremental, or streaming inference. We introduce these techniques from a signal-processing perspective while bridging them to recent advances in ML. Many of the developments we survey have direct applications to state-space modeling, sequential regression and forecasting, anomaly detection in time series, sequential Bayesian optimization, adaptive and active sensing, and sequential detection and decision-making. By organizing these advances from a signal-processing perspective, we intend to equip practitioners with practical tools and a coherent roadmap for deploying sequential GP models in real-world systems.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Some of the most successful knowledge graph embedding (KGE) models for link prediction - CP, RESCAL, TUCKER, COMPLEX - can be interpreted as energy-based models. Under this perspective they are not amenable for exact maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE), sampling and struggle to integrate logical constraints. This work re-interprets the score functions of these KGEs as circuits - constrained computational graphs allowing efficient marginalisation. Then, we design two recipes to obtain efficient generative circuit models by either restricting their activations to be non-negative or squaring their outputs. Our interpretation comes with little or no loss of performance for link prediction, while the circuits framework unlocks exact learning by MLE, efficient sampling of new triples, and guarantee that logical constraints are satisfied by design.

Robust inference for non-linear regression models from the tsallis score:812 Application to coronavirus disease 2019 contagion in italy.

Regularization is one of the most fundamental topics in optimization, statistics and machine learning. To get sparsity in estimating a parameter u Rd, an ℓq penalty term, u q, is usually added to the objective function. What is the probabilistic distribution corresponding to such ℓq penalty? What is the correct stochastic process corresponding to u q when we model functions u Lq? This is important for statistically modeling high-dimensional objects such as images, with penalty to preserve certain properties, e.g.