We introduce Bayesian least-squares policy iteration (BLSPI), an off-policy, model-free, policy iteration algorithm that uses the Bayesian least-squares temporal-difference (BLSTD) learning algorithm to evaluate policies. An online variant of BLSPI has been also proposed, called randomised BLSPI (RBLSPI), that improves its policy based on an incomplete policy evaluation step. In online setting, the exploration-exploitation dilemma should be addressed as we try to discover the optimal policy by using samples collected by ourselves. RBLSPI exploits the advantage of BLSTD to quantify our uncertainty about the value function. Inspired by Thompson sampling, RBLSPI first samples a value function from a posterior distribution over value functions, and then selects actions based on the sampled value function. The effectiveness and the exploration abilities of RBLSPI are demonstrated experimentally in several environments.

Estimating conditional dependence graphs and precision matrices are some of the most common problems in modern statistics and machine learning. When data are fully observed, penalized maximum likelihood-type estimators have become standard tools for estimating graphical models under sparsity conditions. Extensions of these methods to more complex settings where data are contaminated with additive or multiplicative noise have been developed in recent years. In these settings, however, the relative performance of different methods is not well understood and algorithmic gaps still exist. In particular, in high-dimensional settings these methods require using non-positive semidefinite matrices as inputs, presenting novel optimization challenges. We develop an alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) algorithm for these problems, providing a feasible algorithm to estimate precision matrices with indefinite input and potentially nonconvex penalties. We compare this method with existing alternative solutions and empirically characterize the tradeoffs between them. Finally, we use this method to explore the networks among US senators estimated from voting records data.

Stochastic block models (SBMs) have been playing an important role in modeling clusters or community structures of network data. But, it is incapable of handling several complex features ubiquitously exhibited in real-world networks, one of which is the power-law degree characteristic. To this end, we propose a new variant of SBM, termed power-law degree SBM (PLD-SBM), by introducing degree decay variables to explicitly encode the varying degree distribution over all nodes. With an exponential prior, it is proved that PLD-SBM approximately preserves the scale-free feature in real networks. In addition, from the inference of variational E-Step, PLD-SBM is indeed to correct the bias inherited in SBM with the introduced degree decay factors. Furthermore, experiments conducted on both synthetic networks and two real-world datasets including Adolescent Health Data and the political blogs network verify the effectiveness of the proposed model in terms of cluster prediction accuracies.

Unstructured data from diverse sources, such as social media and aerial imagery, can provide valuable up-to-date information for intelligent situation assessment. Mining these different information sources could bring major benefits to applications such as situation awareness in disaster zones and mapping the spread of diseases. Such applications depend on classifying the situation across a region of interest, which can be depicted as a spatial "heatmap". Annotating unstructured data using crowdsourcing or automated classifiers produces individual classifications at sparse locations that typically contain many errors. We propose a novel Bayesian approach that models the relevance, error rates and bias of each information source, enabling us to learn a spatial Gaussian Process classifier by aggregating data from multiple sources with varying reliability and relevance. Our method does not require gold-labelled data and can make predictions at any location in an area of interest given only sparse observations. We show empirically that our approach can handle noisy and biased data sources, and that simultaneously inferring reliability and transferring information between neighbouring reports leads to more accurate predictions. We demonstrate our method on two real-world problems from disaster response, showing how our approach reduces the amount of crowdsourced data required and can be used to generate valuable heatmap visualisations from SMS messages and satellite images.

This paper introduces a generalized representation of Bayesian inference. It is derived axiomatically, recovering existing Bayesian methods as special cases. We use it to prove that variational inference (VI) based on the Kullback-Leibler Divergence with a variational family Q produces the uniquely optimal Q-constrained approximation to the exact Bayesian inference problem. Surprisingly, this implies that standard VI dominates any other Q-constrained approximation to the exact Bayesian inference problem. This means that alternative Q-constrained approximations such as VI targeted at minimizing other divergences and Expectation Propagation can produce better posteriors than VI only by implicitly targeting more appropriate Bayesian inference problems. Inspired by this, we introduce Generalized Variational Inference (GVI), a modular approach for instead solving such alternative inference problems explicitly. We explore some applications of GVI, including robustness and better marginals. Lastly, we derive black box GVI and apply it to Bayesian Neural Networks as well as Deep Gaussian Processes, where GVI comprehensively outperforms competing methods.

Despite some empirical success at correcting exposure bias in machine translation, scheduled sampling algorithms suffer from a major drawback: they incorrectly assume that words in the reference translations and in sampled sequences are aligned at each time step. Our new differentiable sampling algorithm addresses this issue by optimizing the probability that the reference can be aligned with the sampled output, based on a soft alignment predicted by the model itself. As a result, the output distribution at each time step is evaluated with respect to the whole predicted sequence. Experiments on IWSLT translation tasks show that our approach improves BLEU compared to maximum likelihood and scheduled sampling baselines. In addition, our approach is simpler to train with no need for sampling schedule and yields models that achieve larger improvements with smaller beam sizes.

Despite their unprecedented performance in various domains, utilization of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) in safety-critical environments is severely limited in the presence of even small adversarial perturbations. The present work develops a randomized approach to detecting such perturbations based on minimum uncertainty metrics that rely on sampling at the hidden layers during the DNN inference stage. The sampling probabilities are designed for effective detection of the adversarially corrupted inputs. Being modular, the novel detector of adversaries can be conveniently employed by any pre-trained DNN at no extra training overhead. Selecting which units to sample per hidden layer entails quantifying the amount of DNN output uncertainty from the viewpoint of Bayesian neural networks, where the overall uncertainty is expressed in terms of its layer-wise components - what also promotes scalability. Sampling probabilities are then sought by minimizing uncertainty measures layer-by-layer, leading to a novel convex optimization problem that admits an exact solver with superlinear convergence rate. By simplifying the objective function, low-complexity approximate solvers are also developed. In addition to valuable insights, these approximations link the novel approach with state-of-the-art randomized adversarial detectors. The effectiveness of the novel detectors in the context of competing alternatives is highlighted through extensive tests for various types of adversarial attacks with variable levels of strength.

We consider Online Convex Optimization (OCO) in the setting where the costs are $m$-strongly convex and the online learner pays a switching cost for changing decisions between rounds. We show that the recently proposed Online Balanced Descent (OBD) algorithm is constant competitive in this setting, with competitive ratio $3 + O(1/m)$, irrespective of the ambient dimension. Additionally, we show that when the sequence of cost functions is $\epsilon$-smooth, OBD has near-optimal dynamic regret and maintains strong per-round accuracy. We demonstrate the generality of our approach by showing that the OBD framework can be used to construct competitive algorithms for a variety of online problems across learning and control, including online variants of ridge regression, logistic regression, maximum likelihood estimation, and LQR control.

This report provides an in-depth overview over the implications and novelty Generalized Variational Inference (GVI) (Knoblauch et al., 2019) brings to Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs) (Damianou & Lawrence, 2013). Specifically, robustness to model misspecification as well as principled alternatives for uncertainty quantification are motivated with an information-geometric view. These modifications have clear interpretations and can be implemented in less than 100 lines of Python code. Most importantly, the corresponding empirical results show that DGPs can greatly benefit from the presented enhancements.

In a nutshell, the (µ / λ) CMA-ES is an iterative black box optimization algorithm, that, in each of its iterations, samples λ candidate This paper introduces a novel theoretically sound approach for solutions from a multivariate normal distribution, evaluates the celebrated CMA-ES algorithm. Assuming the parameters of these solutions (sequentially or in parallel) retains µ candidates the multi variate normal distribution for the minimum follow a and adjusts the sampling distribution used for the next iteration conjugate prior distribution, we derive their optimal update at to give higher probability to good samples. Each iteration can be each iteration step. Not only provides this Bayesian framework a individually seen as taking an initial guess or prior for the multi justification for the update of the CMA-ES algorithm but it also gives variate parameters, namely the mean and the covariance, and after two new versions of CMA-ES either assuming normal-Wishart or making an experiment by evaluating these sample points with the normal-Inverse Wishart priors, depending whether we parametrize fit function updating the initial parameters accordingly.