Applied Data Scientists throughout various industries are commonly faced with the challenging task of encoding high-cardinality categorical features into digestible inputs for machine learning algorithms. This paper describes a Bayesian encoding technique developed for WeWork's lead scoring engine which outputs the probability of a person touring one of our office spaces based on interaction, enrichment, and geospatial data. We present a paradigm for ensemble modeling which mitigates the need to build complicated preprocessing and encoding schemes for categorical variables. In particular, domain-specific conjugate Bayesian models are employed as base learners for features in a stacked ensemble model. For each column of a categorical feature matrix we fit a problem-specific prior distribution, for example, the Beta distribution for a binary classification problem. In order to analytically derive the moments of the posterior distribution, we update the prior with the conjugate likelihood of the corresponding target variable for each unique value of the given categorical feature. This function of column and value encodes the categorical feature matrix so that the final learner in the ensemble model ingests low-dimensional numerical input. Experimental results on both curated and real world datasets demonstrate impressive accuracy and computational efficiency on a variety of problem archetypes. Particularly, for the lead scoring engine at WeWork -- where some categorical features have as many as 300,000 levels -- we have seen an AUC improvement from 0.87 to 0.97 through implementing conjugate Bayesian model encoding.

As neural networks have begun performing increasingly critical tasks for society, ranging from driving cars to identifying candidates for drug development, the value of their ability to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) in their predictions has risen commensurately. Permanent dropout, a popular method for neural network UQ, involves injecting stochasticity into the inference phase of the model and creating many predictions for each of the test data. This shifts the computational and energy burden of deep neural networks from the training phase to the inference phase. Recent work has demonstrated near-lossless conversion of classical deep neural networks to their spiking counterparts. We use these results to demonstrate the feasibility of conducting the inference phase with permanent dropout on spiking neural networks, mitigating the technique's computational and energy burden, which is essential for its use at scale or on edge platforms. We demonstrate the proposed approach via the Nengo spiking neural simulator on a combination drug therapy dataset for cancer treatment, where UQ is critical. Our results indicate that the spiking approximation gives a predictive distribution practically indistinguishable from that given by the classical network.

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have achieved significant success in tackling classical and modern machine learning problems. As learning problems grow in scale and complexity, and expand into multi-disciplinary territory, a more modular approach for scaling ANNs will be needed. Modular neural networks (MNNs) are neural networks that embody the concepts and principles of modularity. MNNs adopt a large number of different techniques for achieving modularization. Previous surveys of modularization techniques are relatively scarce in their systematic analysis of MNNs, focusing mostly on empirical comparisons and lacking an extensive taxonomical framework. In this review, we aim to establish a solid taxonomy that captures the essential properties and relationships of the different variants of MNNs. Based on an investigation of the different levels at which modularization techniques act, we attempt to provide a universal and systematic framework for theorists studying MNNs, also trying along the way to emphasise the strengths and weaknesses of different modularization approaches in order to highlight good practices for neural network practitioners.

Bayesian networks are a class of popular graphical models that encode causal and conditional independence relations among variables by directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). We propose a novel structure learning method, annealing on regularized Cholesky score (ARCS), to search over topological sorts, or permutations of nodes, for a high-scoring Bayesian network. Our scoring function is derived from regularizing Gaussian DAG likelihood, and its optimization gives an alternative formulation of the sparse Cholesky factorization problem from a statistical viewpoint, which is of independent interest. We combine global simulated annealing over permutations with a fast proximal gradient algorithm, operating on triangular matrices of edge coefficients, to compute the score of any permutation. Combined, the two approaches allow us to quickly and effectively search over the space of DAGs without the need to verify the acyclicity constraint or to enumerate possible parent sets given a candidate topological sort. The annealing aspect of the optimization is able to consistently improve the accuracy of DAGs learned by local search algorithms. In addition, we develop several techniques to facilitate the structure learning, including pre-annealing data-driven tuning parameter selection and post-annealing constraint-based structure refinement. Through extensive numerical comparisons, we show that ARCS achieves substantial improvements over existing methods, demonstrating its great potential to learn Bayesian networks from both observational and experimental data.

The Predictive Normalized Maximum Likelihood (pNML) scheme has been recently suggested for universal learning in the individual setting, where both the training and test samples are individual data. The goal of universal learning is to compete with a ``genie'' or reference learner that knows the data values, but is restricted to use a learner from a given model class. The pNML minimizes the associated regret for any possible value of the unknown label. Furthermore, its min-max regret can serve as a pointwise measure of learnability for the specific training and data sample. In this work we examine the pNML and its associated learnability measure for the Deep Neural Network (DNN) model class. As shown, the pNML outperforms the commonly used Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) approach and provides robustness against adversarial attacks. Together with its learnability measure it can detect out of distribution test examples, be tolerant to noisy labels and serve as a confidence measure for the ERM. Finally, we extend the pNML to a ``twice universal'' solution, that provides universality for model class selection and generates a learner competing with the best one from all model classes.

Machine learning has become a vital part in many aspects of our daily life. However, building well performing machine learning applications requires highly specialized data scientists and domain experts. Automated machine learning (AutoML) aims to reduce the demand for data scientists by enabling domain experts to automatically build machine learning applications without extensive knowledge of statistics and machine learning. In this survey, we summarize the recent developments in academy and industry regarding AutoML. First, we introduce a holistic problem formulation. Next, approaches for solving various subproblems of AutoML are presented. Finally, we provide an extensive empirical evaluation of the presented approaches on synthetic and real data.

We present an efficient algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the general exponential family, even in cases when the energy function is represented by a deep neural network. We consider the primal-dual view of the MLE for the kinectics augmented model, which naturally introduces an adversarial dual sampler. The sampler will be represented by a novel neural network architectures, dynamics embeddings, mimicking the dynamical-based samplers, e.g., Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo and its variants. The dynamics embedding parametrization inherits the flexibility from HMC, and provides tractable entropy estimation of the augmented model. Meanwhile, it couples the adversarial dual samplers with the primal model, reducing memory and sample complexity. We further show that several existing estimators, including contrastive divergence (Hinton, 2002), score matching (Hyv\"arinen, 2005), pseudo-likelihood (Besag, 1975), noise-contrastive estimation (Gutmann and Hyv\"arinen, 2010), non-local contrastive objectives (Vickrey et al., 2010), and minimum probability flow (Sohl-Dickstein et al., 2011), can be recast as the special cases of the proposed method with different prefixed dual samplers. Finally, we empirically demonstrate the superiority of the proposed estimator against existing state-of-the-art methods on synthetic and real-world benchmarks.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is considered as one of the main causes of death in the world. Accordingly, scientists look for methods to recognize normal/abnormal heart patterns. Over recent years, researchers have been interested in to investigate CVDs based on heart sounds. The physionet 2016 corpus is presented to provide a standard database for researchers in this field. In this study we proposed an approach for normal/abnormal heart sound detection, based on i-vector features on phiysionet 2016 corpus. In this method, a fixed length vector, namely i-vector, is extracted from each record, and then Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is applied. Then Variational AuotoEncoders (VAE) is used to reduce dimensions of the obtained i-vector. After that, this i-vector and its transmitted version by PCA and VAE are used for training two Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs). Finally, test set is scored using these trained GMMs. In the next step we applied a simple global threshold to classify the obtained scores. We reported the results based on Equal Error Rate (EER) and Modified Accuracy (MAcc). Experimental results show the obtained Accuracy by our proposed system could improve the results reported on the baseline system by 16%.

In this paper, we consider the problem of learning a (first-order) theorem prover where we use a representation of beliefs in mathematical claims instead of a proof system to search for proofs. The inspiration for doing so comes from the practices of human mathematicians where a proof system is typically used after the fact to justify a sequence of intuitive steps obtained by "plausible reasoning" rather than to discover them. Towards this end, we introduce a probabilistic representation of beliefs in first-order statements based on first-order distributive normal forms (dnfs) devised by the philosopher Jaakko Hintikka. Notably, the representation supports Bayesian update and does not enforce that logically equivalent statements are assigned the same probability---otherwise, we would end up in a circular situation where we require a prover in order to assign beliefs. We then examine (1) conjecturing as (statistical) model selection and (2) an alternating-turn proving game amenable (in principle) to self-play training to learn a prover that is both complete in the limit and sound provided that players maintain "reasonable" beliefs. Dnfs have super-exponential space requirements so the ideas in this paper should be taken as conducting a thought experiment on "learning to prove". As a step towards making the ideas practical, we will comment on how abstractions can be used to control the space requirements at the cost of completeness.

We consider worker skill estimation for the single-coin Dawid-Skene crowdsourcing model. In practice, skill-estimation is challenging because worker assignments are sparse and irregular due to the arbitrary and uncontrolled availability of workers. We formulate skill estimation as a rank-one correlation-matrix completion problem, where the observed components correspond to observed label correlations between workers. We show that the correlation matrix can be successfully recovered and skills are identifiable if and only if the sampling matrix (observed components) does not have a bipartite connected component. We then propose a projected gradient descent scheme and show that skill estimates converge to the desired global optima for such sampling matrices. Our proof is original and the results are surprising in light of the fact that even the weighted rank-one matrix factorization problem is NP-hard in general. Next, we derive sample complexity bounds in terms of spectral properties of the signless Laplacian of the sampling matrix. Our proposed scheme achieves state-of-art performance on a number of real-world datasets.