Bayesian Inference
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Artificial Intelligence has come a long way from being the stuff of science fiction movies and books to becoming an integral part of our daily lives. Today, AI is one of the fastest growing global industries. Investments and experiments in AI have been taking place all around the world. Given its unimaginably wide range of uses; AI is a field of expertise that is set to grow in a very huge way over the coming years. AI professionals are among the highest paid in the field of IT. Ans: Artificial Intelligence is a part of computer science that aims to create machine that are intelligent and seek to work and react the way humans do. Q2)What to you understand by an artificial intelligence Neural Network?
Accelerating Langevin Sampling with Birth-death
Lu, Yulong, Lu, Jianfeng, Nolen, James
A fundamental problem in Bayesian inference and statistical machine learning is to efficiently sample from multimodal distributions. Due to metastability, multimodal distributions are difficult to sample using standard Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We propose a new sampling algorithm based on a birth-death mechanism to accelerate the mixing of Langevin diffusion. Our algorithm is motivated by its mean field partial differential equation (PDE), which is a Fokker-Planck equation supplemented by a nonlocal birth-death term. This PDE can be viewed as a gradient flow of the Kullback-Leibler divergence with respect to the Wasserstein-Fisher-Rao metric. We prove that under some assumptions the asymptotic convergence rate of the nonlocal PDE is independent of the potential barrier, in contrast to the exponential dependence in the case of the Langevin diffusion. We illustrate the efficiency of the birth-death accelerated Langevin method through several analytical examples and numerical experiments.
Sequential Gaussian Processes for Online Learning of Nonstationary Functions
Zhang, Michael Minyi, Dumitrascu, Bianca, Williamson, Sinead A., Engelhardt, Barbara E.
Many machine learning problems can be framed in the context of estimating functions, and often these are time-dependent functions that are estimated in real-time as observations arrive. Gaussian processes (GPs) are an attractive choice for modeling real-valued nonlinear functions due to their flexibility and uncertainty quantification. However, the typical GP regression model suffers from several drawbacks: i) Conventional GP inference scales $O(N^{3})$ with respect to the number of observations; ii) updating a GP model sequentially is not trivial; and iii) covariance kernels often enforce stationarity constraints on the function, while GPs with non-stationary covariance kernels are often intractable to use in practice. To overcome these issues, we propose an online sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to fit mixtures of GPs that capture non-stationary behavior while allowing for fast, distributed inference. By formulating hyperparameter optimization as a multi-armed bandit problem, we accelerate mixing for real time inference. Our approach empirically improves performance over state-of-the-art methods for online GP estimation in the context of prediction for simulated non-stationary data and hospital time series data.
On Pruning for Score-Based Bayesian Network Structure Learning
Correia, Alvaro H. C., Cussens, James, de Campos, Cassio P.
Many algorithms for score-based Bayesian network structure learning (BNSL) take as input a collection of potentially optimal parent sets for each variable in a data set. Constructing these collections naively is computationally intensive since the number of parent sets grows exponentially with the number of variables. Therefore, pruning techniques are not only desirable but essential. While effective pruning exists for the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), current results for the Bayesian Dirichlet equivalent uniform (BDeu) score reduce the search space very modestly, hampering the use of (the often preferred) BDeu. We derive new non-trivial theoretical upper bounds for the BDeu score that considerably improve on the state of the art. Since the new bounds are efficient and easy to implement, they can be promptly integrated into many BNSL methods. We show that gains can be significant in multiple UCI data sets so as to highlight practical implications of the theoretical advances.
Training language GANs from Scratch
d'Autume, Cyprien de Masson, Rosca, Mihaela, Rae, Jack, Mohamed, Shakir
Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) enjoy great success at image generation, but have proven difficult to train in the domain of natural language. Challenges with gradient estimation, optimization instability, and mode collapse have lead practitioners to resort to maximum likelihood pre-training, followed by small amounts of adversarial fine-tuning. The benefits of GAN fine-tuning for language generation are unclear, as the resulting models produce comparable or worse samples than traditional language models. We show it is in fact possible to train a language GAN from scratch -- without maximum likelihood pre-training. We combine existing techniques such as large batch sizes, dense rewards and discriminator regularization to stabilize and improve language GANs. The resulting model, ScratchGAN, performs comparably to maximum likelihood training on EMNLP2017 News and WikiText-103 corpora according to quality and diversity metrics.
Efficient MCMC Sampling with Dimension-Free Convergence Rate using ADMM-type Splitting
Vono, Maxime, Paulin, Daniel, Doucet, Arnaud
Performing exact Bayesian inference for complex models is intractable. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms can provide reliable approximations of the posterior distribution but are computationally expensive for large datasets. A standard approach to mitigate this complexity consists of using subsampling techniques or distributing the data across a cluster. However, these approaches are typically unreliable in high-dimensional scenarios. We focus here on an alternative class of MCMC schemes exploiting a splitting strategy akin to the one used by the celebrated ADMM optimization algorithm. These methods, proposed recently in [43, 51], appear to provide empirically state-of-the-art performance. We generalize here these ideas and propose a detailed theoretical study of one of these algorithms known as the Split Gibbs Sampler. Under regularity conditions, we establish explicit dimension-free convergence rates for this scheme using Ricci curvature and coupling ideas. We demonstrate experimentally the excellent performance of these MCMC schemes on various applications.
Real-time Approximate Bayesian Computation for Scene Understanding
Felip, Javier, Ahuja, Nilesh, Gรณmez-Gutiรฉrrez, David, Tickoo, Omesh, Mansinghka, Vikash
Consider scene understanding problems such as predicting where a person is probably reaching, or inferring the pose of 3D objects from depth images, or inferring the probable street crossings of pedestrians at a busy intersection. This paper shows how to solve these problems using Approximate Bayesian Computation. The underlying generative models are built from realistic simulation software, wrapped in a Bayesian error model for the gap between simulation outputs and real data. The simulators are drawn from off-the-shelf computer graphics, video game, and traffic simulation code. The paper introduces two techniques for speeding up inference that can be used separately or in combination. The first is to train neural surrogates of the simulators, using a simple form of domain randomization to make the surrogates more robust to the gap between the simulation and reality. The second is to adaptively discretize the latent variables using a Tree-pyramid approach adapted from computer graphics. This paper also shows performance and accuracy measurements on real-world problems, establishing that it is feasible to solve these problems in real-time.
Ensemble Model Patching: A Parameter-Efficient Variational Bayesian Neural Network
Chang, Oscar, Yao, Yuling, Williams-King, David, Lipson, Hod
Two main obstacles preventing the widespread adoption of variational Bayesian neural networks are the high parameter overhead that makes them infeasible on large networks, and the difficulty of implementation, which can be thought of as "programming overhead." MC dropout [Gal and Ghahramani, 2016] is popular because it sidesteps these obstacles. Nevertheless, dropout is often harmful to model performance when used in networks with batch normalization layers [Li et al., 2018], which are an indispensable part of modern neural networks. We construct a general variational family for ensemble-based Bayesian neural networks that encompasses dropout as a special case. We further present two specific members of this family that work well with batch normalization layers, while retaining the benefits of low parameter and programming overhead, comparable to non-Bayesian training. Our proposed methods improve predictive accuracy and achieve almost perfect calibration on a ResNet-18 trained with ImageNet.
On the marginal likelihood and cross-validation
In Bayesian statistics, the marginal likelihood, also known as the evidence, is used to evaluate model fit as it quantifies the joint probability of the data under the prior. In contrast, non-Bayesian models are typically compared using cross-validation on held-out data, either through $k$-fold partitioning or leave-$p$-out subsampling. We show that the marginal likelihood is formally equivalent to exhaustive leave-$p$-out cross-validation averaged over all values of $p$ and all held-out test sets when using the log posterior predictive probability as the scoring rule. Moreover, the log posterior predictive is the only coherent scoring rule under data exchangeability. This offers new insight into the marginal likelihood and cross-validation and highlights the potential sensitivity of the marginal likelihood to the setting of the prior. We suggest an alternative approach using aggregate cross-validation following a preparatory training phase. Our work has connections to prequential analysis and intrinsic Bayes factors but is motivated through a different course.
Efficient Profile Maximum Likelihood for Universal Symmetric Property Estimation
Charikar, Moses, Shiragur, Kirankumar, Sidford, Aaron
Estimating symmetric properties of a distribution, e.g. support size, coverage, entropy, distance to uniformity, are among the most fundamental problems in algorithmic statistics. While each of these properties have been studied extensively and separate optimal estimators are known for each, in striking recent work, Acharya et al. 2016 showed that there is a single estimator that is competitive for all symmetric properties. This work proved that computing the distribution that approximately maximizes \emph{profile likelihood (PML)}, i.e. the probability of observed frequency of frequencies, and returning the value of the property on this distribution is sample competitive with respect to a broad class of estimators of symmetric properties. Further, they showed that even computing an approximation of the PML suffices to achieve such a universal plug-in estimator. Unfortunately, prior to this work there was no known polynomial time algorithm to compute an approximate PML and it was open to obtain a polynomial time universal plug-in estimator through the use of approximate PML. In this paper we provide a algorithm (in number of samples) that, given $n$ samples from a distribution, computes an approximate PML distribution up to a multiplicative error of $\exp(n^{2/3} \mathrm{poly} \log(n))$ in time nearly linear in $n$. Generalizing work of Acharya et al. 2016 on the utility of approximate PML we show that our algorithm provides a nearly linear time universal plug-in estimator for all symmetric functions up to accuracy $\epsilon = \Omega(n^{-0.166})$. Further, we show how to extend our work to provide efficient polynomial-time algorithms for computing a $d$-dimensional generalization of PML (for constant $d$) that allows for universal plug-in estimation of symmetric relationships between distributions.