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 Bayesian Inference


Testing that a Local Optimum of the Likelihood is Globally Optimum using Reparameterized Embeddings

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Many mathematical imaging problems are posed as non-convex optimization problems. When numerically tractable global optimization procedures are not available, one is often interested in testing ex post facto whether or not a locally convergent algorithm has found the globally optimal solution. If the problem has a statistical maximum likelihood formulation, a local test of global optimality can be constructed. In this paper, we develop an improved test, based on a global maximum validation function proposed by Biernacki, under the assumption that the statistical distribution is in the generalized location family, a condition often satisfied in imaging problems. In addition, a new reparameterization and embedding procedure is presented that exploits knowledge about the forward operator to improve the global maximum validation function. Finally, the reparameterized embedding technique is applied to a physically-motivated joint-inverse problem arising in camera blur estimation. The advantages of the proposed global optimum testing techniques are numerically demonstrated in terms of increased detection accuracy and reduced computation.


Deterministic PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds for deep networks via generalizing noise-resilience

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The ability of overparameterized deep networks to generalize well has been linked to the fact that stochastic gradient descent (SGD) finds solutions that lie in flat, wide minima in the training loss -- minima where the output of the network is resilient to small random noise added to its parameters. So far this observation has been used to provide generalization guarantees only for neural networks whose parameters are either \textit{stochastic} or \textit{compressed}. In this work, we present a general PAC-Bayesian framework that leverages this observation to provide a bound on the original network learned -- a network that is deterministic and uncompressed. What enables us to do this is a key novelty in our approach: our framework allows us to show that if on training data, the interactions between the weight matrices satisfy certain conditions that imply a wide training loss minimum, these conditions themselves {\em generalize} to the interactions between the matrices on test data, thereby implying a wide test loss minimum. We then apply our general framework in a setup where we assume that the pre-activation values of the network are not too small (although we assume this only on the training data). In this setup, we provide a generalization guarantee for the original (deterministic, uncompressed) network, that does not scale with product of the spectral norms of the weight matrices -- a guarantee that would not have been possible with prior approaches.


AlignFlow: Cycle Consistent Learning from Multiple Domains via Normalizing Flows

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Given unpaired data from multiple domains, a key challenge is to efficiently exploit these data sources for modeling a target domain. Variants of this problem have been studied in many contexts, such as cross-domain translation and domain adaptation. We propose AlignFlow, a generative modeling framework for learning from multiple domains via normalizing flows. The use of normalizing flows in AlignFlow allows for a) flexibility in specifying learning objectives via adversarial training, maximum likelihood estimation, or a hybrid of the two methods; and b) exact inference of the shared latent factors across domains at test time. We derive theoretical results for the conditions under which AlignFlow guarantees marginal consistency for the different learning objectives. Furthermore, we show that AlignFlow guarantees exact cycle consistency in mapping datapoints from one domain to another. Empirically, AlignFlow can be used for data-efficient density estimation given multiple data sources and shows significant improvements over relevant baselines on unsupervised domain adaptation.


Understanding Goal-Oriented Active Learning via Influence Functions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Active learning (AL) concerns itself with learning a model from as few labelled data as possible through actively and iteratively querying an oracle with selected unlabelled samples. In this paper, we focus on a popular type of AL in which the utility of a sample is measured by a specified goal achieved by the retrained model after accounting for the sample's marginal influence. Such AL strategies attract a lot of attention thanks to their intuitive motivations, yet they typically suffer from impractically high computational costs due to their need for many iterations of model retraining. With the help of influence functions, we present an effective approximation that bypasses model retraining altogether, and propose a general efficient implementation that makes such AL strategies applicable in practice, both in the serial and the more challenging batch-mode setting. Additionally, we present theoretical analyses which call into question a common practice widely adopted in the field. Finally, we carry out empirical studies with both synthetic and real-world datasets to validate our discoveries as well as showcase the potentials and issues with such goal-oriented AL strategies.


Particle Filter Recurrent Neural Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have been extraordinarily successful for prediction with sequential data. To tackle highly variable and noisy real-world data, we introduce Particle Filter Recurrent Neural Networks (PF-RNNs), a new RNN family that explicitly models uncertainty in its internal structure: while an RNN relies on a long, deterministic latent state vector, a PF-RNN maintains a latent state distribution, approximated as a set of particles. For effective learning, we provide a fully differentiable particle filter algorithm that updates the PF-RNN latent state distribution according to the Bayes rule. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed PF-RNNs outperform the corresponding standard gated RNNs on a synthetic robot localization dataset and 10 real-world sequence prediction datasets for text classification, stock price prediction, etc.


Learning to Balance: Bayesian Meta-Learning for Imbalanced and Out-of-distribution Tasks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

While tasks could come with varying number of instances in realistic settings, the existing meta-learning approaches for few-shot classfication assume even task distributions where the number of instances for each task and class are fixed. Due to such restriction, they learn to equally utilize the meta-knowledge across all the tasks, even when the number of instances per task and class largely varies. Moreover, they do not consider distributional difference in unseen tasks at the meta-test time, on which the meta-knowledge may have varying degree of usefulness depending on the task relatedness. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel meta-learning model that adaptively balances the effect of the meta-learning and task-specific learning, and also class-specific learning within each task. Through the learning of the balancing variables, we can decide whether to obtain a solution close to the initial parameter or far from it. We formulate this objective into a Bayesian inference framework and solve it using variational inference. Our Bayesian Task-Adaptive Meta-Learning (Bayesian-TAML) significantly outperforms existing meta-learning approaches on benchmark datasets for both few-shot and realistic class- and task-imbalanced datasets, with especially higher gains on the latter.


Learning Nonsymmetric Determinantal Point Processes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Determinantal point processes (DPPs) have attracted substantial attention as an elegant probabilistic model that captures the balance between quality and diversity within sets. DPPs are conventionally parameterized by a positive semi-definite kernel matrix, and this symmetric kernel encodes only repulsive interactions between items. These so-called symmetric DPPs have significant expressive power, and have been successfully applied to a variety of machine learning tasks, including recommendation systems, information retrieval, and automatic summarization, among many others. Efficient algorithms for learning symmetric DPPs and sampling from these models have been reasonably well studied. However, relatively little attention has been given to nonsymmetric DPPs, which relax the symmetric constraint on the kernel. Nonsymmetric DPPs allow for both repulsive and attractive item interactions, which can significantly improve modeling power, resulting in a model that may better fit for some applications. We present a method that enables a tractable algorithm, based on maximum likelihood estimation, for learning nonsymmetric DPPs from data composed of observed subsets. Our method imposes a particular decomposition of the nonsymmetric kernel that enables such tractable learning algorithms, which we analyze both theoretically and experimentally. We evaluate our model on synthetic and real-world datasets, demonstrating improved predictive performance compared to symmetric DPPs, which have previously shown strong performance on modeling tasks associated with these datasets.


Monotonic Gaussian Process Flow

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a new framework of imposing monotonicity constraints in a Bayesian non-parametric setting. Our approach is based on numerical solutions of stochastic differential equations [Hedge, 2019]. We derive a non-parametric model of monotonic functions that allows for interpretable priors and principled quantification of hierarchical uncertainty. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed model by providing competitive results to other probabilistic models of monotonic functions on a number of benchmark functions. In addition, we consider the utility of a monotonic constraint in hierarchical probabilistic models, such as deep Gaussian processes. These typically suffer difficulties in modelling and propagating uncertainties throughout the hierarchy that can lead to hidden layers collapsing to point estimates. We address this by constraining hidden layers to be monotonic and present novel procedures for learning and inference that maintain uncertainty. We illustrate the capacity and versatility of the proposed framework on the task of temporal alignment of time-series data where it is beneficial to preserve the uncertainty in the temporal warpings.


Data-Dependent Differentially Private Parameter Learning for Directed Graphical Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Directed graphical models (DGMs) are a class of probabilistic models that are widely used for predictive analysis in sensitive domains, such as medical diagnostics. In this paper we present an algorithm for differentially private learning of the parameters of a DGM with a publicly known graph structure over fully observed data. Our solution optimizes for the utility of inference queries over the DGM and \textit{adds noise that is customized to the properties of the private input dataset and the graph structure of the DGM}. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first explicit data-dependent privacy budget allocation algorithm for DGMs. We compare our algorithm with a standard data-independent approach over a diverse suite of DGM benchmarks and demonstrate that our solution requires a privacy budget that is $3\times$ smaller to obtain the same or higher utility.


Evaluating structure learning algorithms with a balanced scoring function

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Several structure learning algorithms have been proposed towards discovering causal or Bayesian Network (BN) graphs, which is a particularly challenging problem in AI. The performance of these algorithms is evaluated based on the relationship the learned graph has with respect to the ground truth graph. However, there is no agreed scoring function to determine this relationship. Moreover, this paper shows that the commonly used metrics tend to be biased in favour of graphs that minimise the number of edges. The evaluation bias is inconsistent and may lead to evaluating graphs with no edges as superior to graphs with varying numbers of correct and incorrect edges; implying that graphs that minimise edges are often favoured over more complex graphs due to bias rather than overall accuracy. While graphs that are less complex are often desirable, the current metrics encourage algorithms to optimise for simplicity, and to discover graphs with a limited number of edges that do not enable full propagation of evidence. This paper proposes a Balanced Scoring Function (BSF) that eliminates this bias by adjusting the reward function based on the difficulty of discovering an edge, or no edge, proportional to their occurrence rate in the ground truth graph. The BSF score can be used in conjunction with other traditional metrics to provide an alternative and unbiased assessment about the capability of structure learning algorithms in discovering causal or BN graphs.