Neural Networks (NNs) have been extensively used for a wide spectrum of real-world regression tasks, where the goal is to predict a numerical outcome such as revenue, effectiveness, or a quantitative result. In many such tasks, the point prediction is not enough, but also the uncertainty (i.e. risk, or confidence) of that prediction must be estimated. Standard NNs, which are most often used in such tasks, do not provide any such information. Existing approaches try to solve this issue by combining Bayesian models with NNs, but these models are hard to implement, more expensive to train, and usually do not perform as well as standard NNs. In this paper, a new framework called RIO is developed that makes it possible to estimate uncertainty in any pretrained standard NN. RIO models prediction residuals using Gaussian Process with a composite input/output kernel. The residual prediction and I/O kernel are theoretically motivated and the framework is evaluated in twelve real-world datasets. It is found to provide reliable estimates of the uncertainty, reduce the error of the point predictions, and scale well to large datasets. Given that RIO can be applied to any standard NN without modifications to model architecture or training pipeline, it provides an important ingredient in building real-world applications of NNs.

Making high quality inference on large, feature rich datasets under a constrained computational budget is arguably the primary goal of the learning community. This, however, comes with significant challenges. On the one hand, the exact computation of linear algebraic quantities may be prohibitively expensive, such as that of the log determinant. On the other hand, an analytic expression for the quantity of interest may not exist at all, such as the case for the entropy of a Gaussian mixture model, and approximate methods are often both inefficient and inaccurate.

We propose to train Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) by empirical Bayes as an alternative to posterior weight inference. By approximately marginalizing out an i.i.d.\ realization of a finite number of sibling weights per data-point using the Central Limit Theorem (CLT), we attain a scalable and effective Bayesian deep predictor. This approach directly models the posterior predictive distribution, by-passing the intractable posterior weight inference step. However, it introduces a prohibitively large number of hyperparameters for stable training. As the prior weights are marginalized and hyperparameters are optimized, the model also no longer provides a means to incorporate prior knowledge. We overcome both of these drawbacks by deriving a trivial PAC bound that comprises the marginal likelihood of the predictor and a complexity penalty. The outcome integrates organically into the prior networks framework, bringing about an effective and holistic Bayesian treatment of prediction uncertainty. We observe on various regression, classification, and out-of-domain detection benchmarks that our scalable method provides an improved model fit accompanied with significantly better uncertainty estimates than the state-of-the-art.

Speech-acts can have literal meaning as well as pragmatic meaning, but these both involve consequences typically intended by a speaker. Speech-acts can also have unintentional meaning, in which what is conveyed goes above and beyond what was intended. Here, we present a Bayesian analysis of how, to a listener, the meaning of an utterance can significantly differ from a speaker's intended meaning. Our model emphasizes how comprehending the intentional and unintentional meaning of speech-acts requires listeners to engage in sophisticated model-based perspective-taking and reasoning about the history of the state of the world, each other's actions, and each other's observations. To test our model, we have human participants make judgments about vignettes where speakers make utterances that could be interpreted as intentional insults or unintentional faux pas. In elucidating the mechanics of speech-acts with unintentional meanings, our account provides insight into how communication both functions and malfunctions.

Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) is a popular topic modeling technique for discovery of hidden semantic architecture of text datasets, and plays a fundamental role in many machine learning applications. However, like many other machine learning algorithms, the process of training a LDA model may leak the sensitive information of the training datasets and bring significant privacy risks. To mitigate the privacy issues in LDA, we focus on studying privacy-preserving algorithms of LDA model training in this paper. In particular, we first develop a privacy monitoring algorithm to investigate the privacy guarantee obtained from the inherent randomness of the Collapsed Gibbs Sampling (CGS) process in a typical LDA training algorithm on centralized curated datasets. Then, we further propose a locally private LDA training algorithm on crowdsourced data to provide local differential privacy for individual data contributors. The experimental results on real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithms.

Uncertainty quantification has been a core of the statistical machine learning, but its computational bottleneck has been a serious challenge for both Bayesians and frequentists. We propose a model-based framework in quantifying uncertainty, called predictive-matching Generative Parameter Sampler (GPS). This procedure considers an Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) distribution, on the targeted parameter, which matches the corresponding predictive distribution to the observed data. This framework adopts a hierarchical modeling perspective such that each observation is modeled by an individual parameter. This individual parameterization permits the resulting inference to be computationally scalable and robust to outliers. Our approach is illustrated for linear models, Poisson processes, and deep neural networks for classification. The results show that the GPS is successful in providing uncertainty quantification as well as additional flexibility beyond what is allowed by classical statistical procedures under the postulated statistical models.

Conditional kernel mean embeddings form an attractive nonparametric framework for representing conditional means of functions, describing the observation processes for many complex models. However, the recovery of the original underlying function of interest whose conditional mean was observed is a challenging inference task. We formalize deconditional kernel mean embeddings as a solution to this inverse problem, and show that it can be naturally viewed as a nonparametric Bayes' rule. Critically, we introduce the notion of task transformed Gaussian processes and establish deconditional kernel means as their posterior predictive mean. This connection provides Bayesian interpretations and uncertainty estimates for deconditional kernel mean embeddings, explains their regularization hyperparameters, and reveals a marginal likelihood for kernel hyperparameter learning. These revelations further enable practical applications such as likelihood-free inference and learning sparse representations for big data.

In this research work, probabilistic decision-making approaches are studied, e.g. Bayesian and Boltzmann strategies, along with various deterministic exploration strategies, e.g. greedy, epsilon-Greedy and random approaches. In this research work, a comparative study has been done between probabilistic and deterministic decision-making approaches, the experiments are performed in OpenAI gym environment, solving Cart Pole problem. This research work discusses about the Bayesian approach to decision-making in deep reinforcement learning, and about dropout, how it can reduce the computational cost. All the exploration approaches are compared. It also discusses about the importance of exploration in deep reinforcement learning, and how improving exploration strategies may help in science and technology. This research work shows how probabilistic decision-making approaches are better in the long run as compared to the deterministic approaches. When there is uncertainty, Bayesian dropout approach proved to be better than all other approaches in this research work.

We present a new generalization error bound, the \emph{PAC-Bayesian transportation bound}, unifying the PAC-Bayesian analysis and the generic chaining method in view of the optimal transportation. The proposed bound is the first PAC-Bayesian framework that characterizes the cost of de-randomization of stochastic predictors facing any Lipschitz loss functions. As an example, we give an upper bound on the de-randomization cost of spectrally normalized neural networks~(NNs) to evaluate how much randomness contributes to the generalization of NNs.

We propose a framework for the greedy approximation of high-dimensional Bayesian inference problems, through the composition of multiple \emph{low-dimensional} transport maps or flows. Our framework operates recursively on a sequence of ``residual'' distributions, given by pulling back the posterior through the previously computed transport maps. The action of each map is confined to a low-dimensional subspace that we identify by minimizing an error bound. At each step, our approach thus identifies (i) a relevant subspace of the residual distribution, and (ii) a low-dimensional transformation between a restriction of the residual onto this subspace and a standard Gaussian. We prove weak convergence of the approach to the posterior distribution, and we demonstrate the algorithm on a range of challenging inference problems in differential equations and spatial statistics.