We propose a novel class of Gaussian processes (GPs) whose spectra have compact support, meaning that their sample trajectories are almost-surely band limited. As a complement to the growing literature on spectral design of covariance kernels, the core of our proposal is to model power spectral densities through a rectangular function, which results in a kernel based on the sinc function with straightforward extensions to non-centred (around zero frequency) and frequency-varying cases. In addition to its use in regression, the relationship between the sinc kernel and the classic theory is illuminated, in particular, the Shannon-Nyquist theorem is interpreted as posterior reconstruction under the proposed kernel. Additionally, we show that the sinc kernel is instrumental in two fundamental signal processing applications: first, in stereo amplitude modulation, where the non-centred sinc kernel arises naturally. Second, for band-pass filtering, where the proposed kernel allows for a Bayesian treatment that is robust to observation noise and missing data. The developed theory is complemented with illustrative graphic examples and validated experimentally using real-world data.

Given two distinct datasets, an important question is if they have arisen from the the same data generating function or alternatively how their data generating functions diverge from one another. In this paper, we introduce an approach for measuring the distance between two datasets with high dimensionality using variational autoencoders. This approach is augmented by a permutation hypothesis test in order to check the hypothesis that the data generating distributions are the same within a significance level. We evaluate both the distance measurement and hypothesis testing approaches on generated and on public datasets. According to the results the proposed approach can be used for data exploration (e.g. by quantifying the discrepancy/separability between categories of images), which can be particularly useful in the early phases of the pipeline of most machine learning projects.

Uncertainty involves making decisions with incomplete information, and this is the way we generally operate in the world. Handling uncertainty is typically described using everyday words like chance, luck, and risk. Probability is a field of mathematics that gives us the language and tools to quantify the uncertainty of events and reason in a principled manner. In this post, you will discover a gentle introduction to probability. Photo by Emma Jane Hogbin Westby, some rights reserved.

In many scientific and engineering applications, we are tasked with the maximisation of an expensive to evaluate black box function f. Traditional settings for this problem assume just the availability of this single function. However, in many cases, cheap approximations to f may be obtainable. For example, the expensive real world behaviour of a robot can be approximated by a cheap computer simulation. We can use these approximations to eliminate low function value regions cheaply and use the expensive evaluations of f in a small but promising region and speedily identify the optimum. We formalise this task as a multi-fidelity bandit problem where the target function and its approximations are sampled from a Gaussian process. We develop MF-GP-UCB, a novel method based on upper confidence bound techniques. In our theoretical analysis we demonstrate that it exhibits precisely the above behaviour and achieves better bounds on the regret than strategies which ignore multi-fidelity information. Empirically, MF-GP-UCB outperforms such naive strategies and other multi-fidelity methods on several synthetic and real experiments.

In many real-world scenarios where data is high dimensional, test time acquisition of features is a non-trivial task due to costs associated with feature acquisition and evaluating feature value. The need for highly confident models with an extremely frugal acquisition of features can be addressed by allowing a feature selection method to become target aware. We introduce an approach to feature selection that is based on Bayesian learning, allowing us to report target-specific levels of uncertainty, false positive, and false negative rates. In addition, measuring uncertainty lifts the restriction on feature selection being target agnostic, allowing for feature acquisition based on a single target of focus out of many. We show that acquiring features for a specific target is at least as good as common linear feature selection approaches for small non-sparse datasets, and surpasses these when faced with real-world healthcare data that is larger in scale and in sparseness.

The study presents a general framework for discovering underlying Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) using measured spatiotemporal data. The method, called Sparse Spatiotemporal System Discovery ($\text{S}^3\text{d}$), decides which physical terms are necessary and which can be removed (because they are physically negligible in the sense that they do not affect the dynamics too much) from a pool of candidate functions. The method is built on the recent development of Sparse Bayesian Learning; which enforces the sparsity in the to-be-identified PDEs, and therefore can balance the model complexity and fitting error with theoretical guarantees. Without leveraging prior knowledge or assumptions in the discovery process, we use an automated approach to discover ten types of PDEs, including the famous Navier-Stokes and sine-Gordon equations, from simulation data alone. Moreover, we demonstrate our data-driven discovery process with the Complex Ginzburg-Landau Equation (CGLE) using data measured from a traveling-wave convection experiment. Our machine discovery approach presents solutions that has the potential to inspire, support and assist physicists for the establishment of physical laws from measured spatiotemporal data, especially in notorious fields that are often too complex to allow a straightforward establishment of physical law, such as biophysics, fluid dynamics, neuroscience or nonlinear optics.

Gaussian process classification (GPC) provides a flexible and powerful statistical framework describing joint distributions over function space. Conventional GPCs however suffer from (i) poor scalability for big data due to the full kernel matrix, and (ii) intractable inference due to the non-Gaussian likelihoods. Hence, various scalable GPCs have been proposed through (i) the sparse approximation built upon a small inducing set to reduce the time complexity; and (ii) the approximate inference to derive analytical evidence lower bound (ELBO). However, these scalable GPCs equipped with analytical ELBO are limited to specific likelihoods or additional assumptions. In this work, we present a unifying framework which accommodates scalable GPCs using various likelihoods. Analogous to GP regression (GPR), we introduce additive noises to augment the probability space for (i) the GPCs with step, (multinomial) probit and logit likelihoods via the internal variables; and particularly, (ii) the GPC using softmax likelihood via the noise variables themselves. This leads to unified scalable GPCs with analytical ELBO by using variational inference. Empirically, our GPCs showcase better results than state-of-the-art scalable GPCs for extensive binary/multi-class classification tasks with up to two million data points.

Entity resolution (ER) (record linkage or de-duplication) is the process of merging together noisy databases, often in the absence of a unique identifier. A major advancement in ER methodology has been the application of Bayesian generative models. Such models provide a natural framework for clustering records to unobserved (latent) entities, while providing exact uncertainty quantification and tight performance bounds. Despite these advancements, existing models do not scale to realistically-sized databases (larger than 1000 records) and they do not incorporate probabilistic blocking. In this paper, we propose "distributed Bayesian linkage" or d-blink -- the first scalable and distributed end-to-end Bayesian model for ER, which propagates uncertainty in blocking, matching and merging. We make several novel contributions, including: (i) incorporating probabilistic blocking directly into the model through auxiliary partitions; (ii) support for missing values; (iii) a partially-collapsed Gibbs sampler; and (iv) a novel perturbation sampling algorithm (leveraging the Vose-Alias method) that enables fast updates of the entity attributes. Finally, we conduct experiments on five data sets which show that d-blink can achieve significant efficiency gains -- in excess of 300$\times$ -- when compared to existing non-distributed methods.

While machine learning is rapidly being developed and deployed in health settings such as influenza prediction, there are critical challenges in using data from one environment in another due to variability in features; even within disease labels there can be differences (e.g. "fever" may mean something different reported in a doctor's office versus in an online app). Moreover, models are often built on passive, observational data which contain different distributions of population subgroups (e.g. men or women). Thus, there are two forms of instability between environments in this observational transport problem. We first harness knowledge from health to conceptualize the underlying causal structure of this problem in a health outcome prediction task. Based on sources of stability in the model, we posit that for human-sourced data and health prediction tasks we can combine environment and population information in a novel population-aware hierarchical Bayesian domain adaptation framework that harnesses multiple invariant components through population attributes when needed. We study the conditions under which invariant learning fails, leading to reliance on the environment-specific attributes. Experimental results for an influenza prediction task on four datasets gathered from different contexts show the model can improve prediction in the case of largely unlabelled target data from a new environment and different constituent population, by harnessing both environment and population invariant information. This work represents a novel, principled way to address a critical challenge by blending domain (health) knowledge and algorithmic innovation. The proposed approach will have a significant impact in many social settings wherein who and where the data comes from matters.

Unsupervised recalibration (URC) is a general way to improve the accuracy of an already trained probabilistic classification or regression model upon encountering new data while deployed in the field. URC does not require any ground truth associated with the new field data. URC merely observes the model's predictions and recognizes when the training set is not representative of field data, and then corrects to remove any introduced bias. URC can be particularly useful when applied separately to different subpopulations observed in the field that were not considered as features when training the machine learning model. This makes it possible to exploit subpopulation information without retraining the model or even having ground truth for some or all subpopulations available. Additionally, if these subpopulations are the object of study, URC serves to determine the correct ground truth distributions for them, where naive aggregation methods, like averaging the model's predictions, systematically underestimate their differences.