Bayesian Inference


The amazing predictive power of conditional probability in Bayes Nets

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Using conditional probability gives Bayes Nets strong analytical advantages over traditional regression-based models. This adds to several advantages we discussed in an earlier article. But what is conditional probability and what makes it different? In short, conditional probability means that the effects of one variable depend on, of flow from, the distribution of another variable (or others). The complete state of one variable determines how another acts.


How Bayesian Networks Are Superior in Understanding Effects of Variables

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Bayes Nets (or Bayesian Networks) give remarkable results in determining the effects of many variables on an outcome. They typically perform strongly even in cases when other methods falter or fail. These networks have had relatively little use with business-related problems, although they have worked successfully for years in fields such as scientific research, public safety, aircraft guidance systems and national defense. Importantly, they often outperform regression, particularly in determining variables' effects. Regression is one of the most august multivariate methods, and among the most studied and applied.


andrewgordonwilson/bayesgan

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This repository contains the Tensorflow implementation of the Bayesian GAN by Yunus Saatchi and Andrew Gordon Wilson. This paper will be appearing at NIPS 2017. In the Bayesian GAN we propose conditional posteriors for the generator and discriminator weights, and marginalize these posteriors through stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. Key properties of the Bayesian approach to GANs include (1) accurate predictions on semi-supervised learning problems; (2) minimal intervention for good performance; (3) a probabilistic formulation for inference in response to adversarial feedback; (4) avoidance of mode collapse; and (5) a representation of multiple complementary generative and discriminative models for data, forming a probabilistic ensemble. We illustrate a multimodal posterior over the parameters of the generator.


Related Datasets in Oracle DV Machine Learning models

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In this blog we dicuss Related datasets produced by Machine Learning algorithms in Oracle Data Visualization. Related datasets are generated when we Train/Create a Machine learning model in Oracle DV (present in 12.2.4.0 onwards, called V4 in short). These datasets contain details about the model like: Prediction rules, Accuracy metrics, Confusion Matrix, Key Drivers for prediction etc depending on the type of algorithm. Related datasets can be found in inspect model menu: Inspect Model - Related tab. These datasets are useful in more ways than one.


Naive Bayes in Machine Learning – Towards Data Science

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Bayes' theorem finds many uses in the probability theory and statistics. There's a micro chance that you have never heard about this theorem in your life. Turns out that this theorem has found its way into the world of machine learning, to form one of the highly decorated algorithms. In this article, we will learn all about the Naive Bayes Algorithm, along with its variations for different purposes in machine learning. As you might have guessed, this requires us to view things from a probabilistic point of view.


Algorithms Identify People with Suicidal Thoughts

IEEE Spectrum Robotics Channel

Mention strong words such as "death" or "praise" to someone who has suicidal thoughts and chances are the neurons in their brains activate in a totally different pattern than those of a non-suicidal person. That's what researchers at University of Pittsburgh and Carnegie Mellon University discovered, and trained algorithms to distinguish, using data from fMRI brain scans. The scientists published the findings of their small-scale study Monday in the journal Nature Human Behaviour. They hope to study a larger group of people and use the data to develop simple tests that doctors can use to more readily identify people at risk of suicide. Suicide is the second-leading cause of death among young adults, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.


AI - The present in the making

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For many people, the concept of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a thing of the future. It is the technology that has yet to be introduced. But Professor Jon Oberlander disagrees. He was quick to point out that AI is not in the future, it is now in the making. He began by mentioning Alexa, Amazon's star product.


Telstra builds 900 machine learning models for marketing overhaul

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Telstra has used open source machine learning technology to answer the age-old question that plagues every marketer: how effective is my ad spend? The telco wields one of the biggest marketing budgets in Australia, but that doesn't stop Telstra from wanting to track the performance of every dollar spent. The company previously faced a six-month lag to get visibility into the effectiveness of its marketing spend; that is now down to five weeks using new marketing mix modelling developed in partnership with Accenture, Deakin University and Servian. The telco previously used a traditional econometric model to assess the performance of its marketing spend, pulling together 800 variables – which took two-and-a-half months to assemble – and then modelling this using regression techniques. "Six months after the marketing period had ended I could tell the CMO [chief marketing officer] and the marketers how effective their marketing was... six months ago," Telstra's director of research, insights & analytics Liz Moore told the recent Big Data & Analytics Innovation Summit in Sydney.


Bayesian Decision Theory Made Ridiculously Simple · Statistics @ Home

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The formal object that we use to do this goes by many names depending on the field: I will refer to it as a Loss function (\(\mathcal{L}\)) but the same general concept may be alternatively called a cost function, a utility function, an acquisition function, or any number of different things. The crucial idea is that this is a function that allows us to quantify how bad/good a given decision (\(a\)) is given some information (\(\theta\)). By convention I mean a real number (between \(-\infty\) and \( \infty\)). The crucial idea is that the loss function ties together our decision space (\(\mathcal{A}\)) and our information space (\(\Theta\)).


Chapter 1 : Supervised Learning and Naive Bayes Classification -- Part 1 (Theory)

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Now, can you guess who is the sender for the content: "Wonderful Love." P(Fire Smoke) means how often there is fire when we see smoke. Naive Bayes classifier calculates the probabilities for every factor ( here in case of email example would be Alice and Bob for given input feature). In next part we shall use sklearn in Python and implement Naive Bayes classifier for labelling email to either as Spam or Ham.