In this paper, we investigate a realistic but underexplored problem, called few-shot temporal knowledge graph reasoning, that aims to predict future facts for newly emerging entities based on extremely limited observations in evolving graphs. It offers practical value in applications that need to derive instant new knowledge about new entities in temporal knowledge graphs (TKGs) with minimal supervision. The challenges mainly come from the few-shot and time shift properties of new entities. First, the limited observations associated with them are insufficient for training a model from scratch. Second, the potentially dynamic distributions from the initially observable facts to the future facts ask for explicitly modeling the evolving characteristics of new entities. We correspondingly propose a novel Meta Temporal Knowledge Graph Reasoning (MetaTKGR) framework. Unlike prior work that relies on rigid neighborhood aggregation schemes to enhance low-data entity representation, MetaTKGR dynamically adjusts the strategies of sampling and aggregating neighbors from recent facts for new entities, through temporally supervised signals on future facts as instant feedback. Besides, such a meta temporal reasoning procedure goes beyond existing meta-learning paradigms on static knowledge graphs that fail to handle temporal adaptation with large entity variance. We further provide a theoretical analysis and propose a temporal adaptation regularizer to stabilize the meta temporal reasoning over time. Empirically, extensive experiments on three real-world TKGs demonstrate the superiority of MetaTKGR over state-of-the-art baselines by a large margin.

Predicting the impact of publications in science and technology has become an important research area, which is useful in various real world scenarios such as technology investment, research direction selection, and technology policymaking. Citation trajectory prediction is one of the most popular tasks in this area. Existing approaches mainly rely on mining temporal and graph data from academic articles. Some recent methods are capable of handling cold-start prediction by aggregating metadata features of new publications. However, the implicit factors causing citations and the richer information from handling temporal and attribute features still need to be explored. In this paper, we propose CTPIR, a new citation trajectory prediction framework that is able to represent the influence (the momentum of citation) of either new or existing publications using the history information of all their attributes. Our framework is composed of three modules: difference-preserved graph embedding, fine-grained influence representation, and learning-based trajectory calculation. To test the effectiveness of our framework in more situations, we collect and construct a new temporal knowledge graph dataset from the real world, named AIPatent, which stems from global patents in the field of artificial intelligence. Experiments are conducted on both the APS academic dataset and our contributed AIPatent dataset. The results demonstrate the strengths of our approach in the citation trajectory prediction task.

Entity alignment (EA) aims to find entities in different knowledge graphs (KGs) that refer to the same object in the real world. Recent studies incorporate temporal information to augment the representations of KGs. The existing methods for EA between temporal KGs (TKGs) utilize a time-aware attention mechanism to incorporate relational and temporal information into entity embeddings. The approaches outperform the previous methods by using temporal information. However, we believe that it is not necessary to learn the embeddings of temporal information in KGs since most TKGs have uniform temporal representations. Therefore, we propose a simple graph neural network (GNN) model combined with a temporal information matching mechanism, which achieves better performance with less time and fewer parameters. Furthermore, since alignment seeds are difficult to label in real-world applications, we also propose a method to generate unsupervised alignment seeds via the temporal information of TKG. Extensive experiments on public datasets indicate that our supervised method significantly outperforms the previous methods and the unsupervised one has competitive performance.

Opposing the false dilemma of logical reasoning vs machine learning, we argue for a synergy between these two paradigms in order to obtain hybrid AI systems that will be robust, generalizable, and transferable. Indeed, it is well-known that machine learning only includes statistical information and, therefore, is not inherently able to capture perturbations (interventions or changes in the environment), or perform reasoning and planning. Ideally, (the training of) machine learning models should be tied to assumptions that align with physics and human cognition to allow for these models to be re-used and re-purposed in novel scenarios. On the other hand, it is also the case that logic in itself can be brittle too, and logic further assumes that the symbols with which it can reason are already given. It is becoming ever more evident in the literature that modular AI architectures should be prioritized, where the involved knowledge about the world and the reality that we are operating in is decomposed into independent and recomposable pieces, as such an approach should only increase the chances that these systems behave in a causally sound manner.

How can we perform knowledge reasoning over temporal knowledge graphs (TKGs)? TKGs represent facts about entities and their relations, where each fact is associated with a timestamp. Reasoning over TKGs, i.e., inferring new facts from time-evolving KGs, is crucial for many applications to provide intelligent services. However, despite the prevalence of real-world data that can be represented as TKGs, most methods focus on reasoning over static knowledge graphs, or cannot predict future events. In this paper, we present a problem formulation that unifies the two major problems that need to be addressed for an effective reasoning over TKGs, namely, modeling the event time and the evolving network structure. Our proposed method EvoKG jointly models both tasks in an effective framework, which captures the ever-changing structural and temporal dynamics in TKGs via recurrent event modeling, and models the interactions between entities based on the temporal neighborhood aggregation framework. Further, EvoKG achieves an accurate modeling of event time, using flexible and efficient mechanisms based on neural density estimation. Experiments show that EvoKG outperforms existing methods in terms of effectiveness (up to 77% and 116% more accurate time and link prediction) and efficiency.

Multivariate time-series have become abundant in recent years, as many data-acquisition systems record information through multiple sensors simultaneously. In this paper, we assume the variables pertain to some geometry and present an operator-based approach for spatiotemporal analysis. Our approach combines three components that are often considered separately: (i) manifold learning for building operators representing the geometry of the variables, (ii) Riemannian geometry of symmetric positive-definite matrices for multiscale composition of operators corresponding to different time samples, and (iii) spectral analysis of the composite operators for extracting different dynamic modes. We propose a method that is analogous to the classical wavelet analysis, which we term Riemannian multi-resolution analysis (RMRA). We provide some theoretical results on the spectral analysis of the composite operators, and we demonstrate the proposed method on simulations and on real data.

Conventional static knowledge graphs model entities in relational data as nodes, connected by edges of specific relation types. However, information and knowledge evolve continuously, and temporal dynamics emerge, which are expected to influence future situations. In temporal knowledge graphs, time information is integrated into the graph by equipping each edge with a timestamp or a time range. Embedding-based methods have been introduced for link prediction on temporal knowledge graphs, but they mostly lack explainability and comprehensible reasoning chains. Particularly, they are usually not designed to deal with link forecasting -- event prediction involving future timestamps. We address the task of link forecasting on temporal knowledge graphs and introduce TLogic, an explainable framework that is based on temporal logical rules extracted via temporal random walks. We compare TLogic with state-of-the-art baselines on three benchmark datasets and show better overall performance while our method also provides explanations that preserve time consistency. Furthermore, in contrast to most state-of-the-art embedding-based methods, TLogic works well in the inductive setting where already learned rules are transferred to related datasets with a common vocabulary.

While knowledge graphs contain rich semantic knowledge of various entities and the relational information among them, temporal knowledge graphs (TKGs) further indicate the interactions of the entities over time. To study how to better model TKGs, automatic temporal knowledge graph completion (TKGC) has gained great interest. Recent TKGC methods aim to integrate advanced deep learning techniques, e.g., attention mechanism and Transformer, to boost model performance. However, we find that compared to adopting various kinds of complex modules, it is more beneficial to better utilize the whole amount of temporal information along the time axis. In this paper, we propose a simple but powerful graph encoder TARGCN for TKGC. TARGCN is parameter-efficient, and it extensively utilizes the information from the whole temporal context. We perform experiments on three benchmark datasets. Our model can achieve a more than 42% relative improvement on GDELT dataset compared with the state-of-the-art model. Meanwhile, it outperforms the strongest baseline on ICEWS05-15 dataset with around 18.5% fewer parameters.

In knowledge graph reasoning, we observe a trend to analyze temporal data evolving over time. The additional temporal dimension is attached to facts in a knowledge base resulting in quadruples between entities such as (Nintendo, released, Super Mario, Sep-13-1985), where the relation between two entities is associated to a specific time interval or point in time. Multi-hop reasoning on inferred subgraphs connecting entities within a knowledge graph can be formulated as a reinforcement learning task where the agent sequentially performs inference upon the explored subgraph. The task in this work is to infer the predicate between a subject and an object entity, i.e., (subject, ?, object, time), being valid at a certain timestamp or time interval. Given query entities, our agent starts to gather temporal relevant information about the neighborhood of the subject and object. The encoding of information about the explored graph structures is referred to as fingerprints. Subsequently, we use the two fingerprints as input to a Q-Network. Our agent decides sequentially which relational type needs to be explored next expanding the local subgraphs of the query entities in order to find promising paths between them. The evaluation shows that the proposed method not only yields results being in line with state-of-the-art embedding algorithms for temporal Knowledge Graphs (tKG), but we also gain information about the relevant structures between subjects and objects.

Temporal knowledge graph (TKG) reasoning is a crucial task that has gained increasing research interest in recent years. Most existing methods focus on reasoning at past timestamps to complete the missing facts, and there are only a few works of reasoning on known TKGs to forecast future facts. Compared with the completion task, the forecasting task is more difficult that faces two main challenges: (1) how to effectively model the time information to handle future timestamps? (2) how to make inductive inference to handle previously unseen entities that emerge over time? To address these challenges, we propose the first reinforcement learning method for forecasting. Specifically, the agent travels on historical knowledge graph snapshots to search for the answer. Our method defines a relative time encoding function to capture the timespan information, and we design a novel time-shaped reward based on Dirichlet distribution to guide the model learning. Furthermore, we propose a novel representation method for unseen entities to improve the inductive inference ability of the model. We evaluate our method for this link prediction task at future timestamps. Extensive experiments on four benchmark datasets demonstrate substantial performance improvement meanwhile with higher explainability, less calculation, and fewer parameters when compared with existing state-of-the-art methods.