Temporal reasoning is the task of predicting temporal relations of event pairs. While temporal reasoning models can perform reasonably well on in-domain benchmarks, we have little idea of these systems' generalizability due to existing datasets' limitations. In this work, we introduce a novel task named TODAY that bridges this gap with temporal differential analysis, which as the name suggests, evaluates whether systems can correctly understand the effect of incremental changes. Specifically, TODAY introduces slight contextual changes for given event pairs, and systems are asked to tell how this subtle contextual change would affect relevant temporal relation distributions. To facilitate learning, TODAY also annotates human explanations. We show that existing models, including GPT-3.5, drop to random guessing on TODAY, suggesting that they heavily rely on spurious information rather than proper reasoning for temporal predictions. On the other hand, we show that TODAY's supervision style and explanation annotations can be used in joint learning, encouraging models to use more appropriate signals during training and thus outperform across several benchmarks. TODAY can also be used to train models to solicit incidental supervision from noisy sources such as GPT-3.5, thus moving us more toward the goal of generic temporal reasoning systems.

Temporal knowledge graph (TKG) completion models typically rely on having access to the entire graph during training. However, in real-world scenarios, TKG data is often received incrementally as events unfold, leading to a dynamic non-stationary data distribution over time. While one could incorporate fine-tuning to existing methods to allow them to adapt to evolving TKG data, this can lead to forgetting previously learned patterns. Alternatively, retraining the model with the entire updated TKG can mitigate forgetting but is computationally burdensome. To address these challenges, we propose a general continual training framework that is applicable to any TKG completion method, and leverages two key ideas: (i) a temporal regularization that encourages repurposing of less important model parameters for learning new knowledge, and (ii) a clustering-based experience replay that reinforces the past knowledge by selectively preserving only a small portion of the past data. Our experimental results on widely used event-centric TKG datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed continual training framework in adapting to new events while reducing catastrophic forgetting. Further, we perform ablation studies to show the effectiveness of each component of our proposed framework. Finally, we investigate the relation between the memory dedicated to experience replay and the benefit gained from our clustering-based sampling strategy.

Event temporal reasoning aims at identifying the temporal relations between two or more events. However, knowledge conflicts arise when there is a mismatch between the actual temporal relations of events in the context and the prior knowledge or biases learned by the model. We first systematically define distinct kinds of bias in event temporal reasoning, which include event relation prior bias, tense bias, narrative bias, and dependency bias, as indicators to study knowledge conflicts. To mitigate such event-related knowledge conflict, we introduce a Counterfactual Data Augmentation based method that can be applied to both Pre-trained Language Models (PLMs) and Large Language Models (LLMs) either as additional training data or demonstrations for In-Context Learning. Experiments suggest the importance of mitigating knowledge conflicts in event temporal reasoning tasks for reducing hallucination and highlight the potential of counterfactual data augmentation for improving model performance.

Few-shot relational learning for static knowledge graphs (KGs) has drawn greater interest in recent years, while few-shot learning for temporal knowledge graphs (TKGs) has hardly been studied. Compared to KGs, TKGs contain rich temporal information, thus requiring temporal reasoning techniques for modeling. This poses a greater challenge in learning few-shot relations in the temporal context. In this paper, we follow the previous work that focuses on few-shot relational learning on static KGs and extend two fundamental TKG reasoning tasks, i.e., interpolated and extrapolated link prediction, to the one-shot setting. We propose four new large-scale benchmark datasets and develop a TKG reasoning model for learning one-shot relations in TKGs. Experimental results show that our model can achieve superior performance on all datasets in both TKG link prediction tasks.

A temporal knowledge graph (TKG) stores the events derived from the data involving time. Predicting events is extremely challenging due to the time-sensitive property of events. Besides, the previous TKG completion (TKGC) approaches cannot represent both the timeliness and the causality properties of events, simultaneously. To address these challenges, we propose a Logic and Commonsense-Guided Embedding model (LCGE) to jointly learn the time-sensitive representation involving timeliness and causality of events, together with the time-independent representation of events from the perspective of commonsense. Specifically, we design a temporal rule learning algorithm to construct a rule-guided predicate embedding regularization strategy for learning the causality among events. Furthermore, we could accurately evaluate the plausibility of events via auxiliary commonsense knowledge. The experimental results of TKGC task illustrate the significant performance improvements of our model compared with the existing approaches. More interestingly, our model is able to provide the explainability of the predicted results in the view of causal inference. The source code and datasets of this paper are available at https://github.com/ngl567/LCGE.

Temporal Knowledge graph completion (TKGC) is a crucial task that involves reasoning at known timestamps to complete the missing part of facts and has attracted more and more attention in recent years. Most existing methods focus on learning representations based on graph neural networks while inaccurately extracting information from timestamps and insufficiently utilizing the implied information in relations. To address these problems, we propose a novel TKGC model, namely Pre-trained Language Model with Prompts for TKGC (PPT). We convert a series of sampled quadruples into pre-trained language model inputs and convert intervals between timestamps into different prompts to make coherent sentences with implicit semantic information. We train our model with a masking strategy to convert TKGC task into a masked token prediction task, which can leverage the semantic information in pre-trained language models. Experiments on three benchmark datasets and extensive analysis demonstrate that our model has great competitiveness compared to other models with four metrics. Our model can effectively incorporate information from temporal knowledge graphs into the language models.

Since conventional knowledge embedding models cannot take full advantage of the abundant textual information, there have been extensive research efforts in enhancing knowledge embedding using texts. However, existing enhancement approaches cannot apply to temporal knowledge graphs (tKGs), which contain time-dependent event knowledge with complex temporal dynamics. Specifically, existing enhancement approaches often assume knowledge embedding is time-independent. In contrast, the entity embedding in tKG models usually evolves, which poses the challenge of aligning temporally relevant texts with entities. To this end, we propose to study enhancing temporal knowledge embedding with textual data in this paper. As an approach to this task, we propose Enhanced Temporal Knowledge Embeddings with Contextualized Language Representations (ECOLA), which takes the temporal aspect into account and injects textual information into temporal knowledge embedding. To evaluate ECOLA, we introduce three new datasets for training and evaluating ECOLA. Extensive experiments show that ECOLA significantly enhances temporal KG embedding models with up to 287% relative improvements regarding Hits@1 on the link prediction task. The code and models are publicly available on https://anonymous.4open.science/r/ECOLA.

Temporal knowledge graph (TKG) reasoning aims to predict the future missing facts based on historical information and has gained increasing research interest recently. Lots of works have been made to model the historical structural and temporal characteristics for the reasoning task. Most existing works model the graph structure mainly depending on entity representation. However, the magnitude of TKG entities in real-world scenarios is considerable, and an increasing number of new entities will arise as time goes on. Therefore, we propose a novel architecture modeling with relation feature of TKG, namely aDAptivE path-MemOry Network (DaeMon), which adaptively models the temporal path information between query subject and each object candidate across history time. It models the historical information without depending on entity representation. Specifically, DaeMon uses path memory to record the temporal path information derived from path aggregation unit across timeline considering the memory passing strategy between adjacent timestamps. Extensive experiments conducted on four real-world TKG datasets demonstrate that our proposed model obtains substantial performance improvement and outperforms the state-of-the-art up to 4.8% absolute in MRR.

Temporal relation prediction in incomplete temporal knowledge graphs (TKGs) is a popular temporal knowledge graph completion (TKGC) problem in both transductive and inductive settings. Traditional embedding-based TKGC models (TKGE) rely on structured connections and can only handle a fixed set of entities, i.e., the transductive setting. In the inductive setting where test TKGs contain emerging entities, the latest methods are based on symbolic rules or pre-trained language models (PLMs). However, they suffer from being inflexible and not time-specific, respectively. In this work, we extend the fully-inductive setting, where entities in the training and test sets are totally disjoint, into TKGs and take a further step towards a more flexible and time-sensitive temporal relation prediction approach SST-BERT, incorporating Structured Sentences with Time-enhanced BERT. Our model can obtain the entity history and implicitly learn rules in the semantic space by encoding structured sentences, solving the problem of inflexibility. We propose to use a time masking MLM task to pre-train BERT in a corpus rich in temporal tokens specially generated for TKGs, enhancing the time sensitivity of SST-BERT. To compute the probability of occurrence of a target quadruple, we aggregate all its structured sentences from both temporal and semantic perspectives into a score. Experiments on the transductive datasets and newly generated fully-inductive benchmarks show that SST-BERT successfully improves over state-of-the-art baselines.

Temporal knowledge graphs (TKGs) model the temporal evolution of events and have recently attracted increasing attention. Since TKGs are intrinsically incomplete, it is necessary to reason out missing elements. Although existing TKG reasoning methods have the ability to predict missing future events, they fail to generate explicit reasoning paths and lack explainability. As reinforcement learning (RL) for multi-hop reasoning on traditional knowledge graphs starts showing superior explainability and performance in recent advances, it has opened up opportunities for exploring RL techniques on TKG reasoning. However, the performance of RL-based TKG reasoning methods is limited due to: (1) lack of ability to capture temporal evolution and semantic dependence jointly; (2) excessive reliance on manually designed rewards. To overcome these challenges, we propose an adaptive reinforcement learning model based on attention mechanism (DREAM) to predict missing elements in the future. Specifically, the model contains two components: (1) a multi-faceted attention representation learning method that captures semantic dependence and temporal evolution jointly; (2) an adaptive RL framework that conducts multi-hop reasoning by adaptively learning the reward functions. Experimental results demonstrate DREAM outperforms state-of-the-art models on public dataset